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Knockout round analysis of World Cup using Google Cloud continues as our featured match of Brazil vs. Mexico involves a pair of squads each of whom have endured their share of turbulence. Neither Brazil nor Mexico enjoyed an easy path out of group play. Mexico battled inconsistency. Brazil, at times, seemed to be battling themselves.

The bumpy ride for Canarinha started when they suffered a disastrous opening draw (1–1) with Switzerland then slogged through a match with Costa Rica before rallying for a pair of injury time goals (2–0). It appeared they got their stuff together just enough in dispatching Serbia (2–0) to advance.

Any time Brazil comes up in conversation, both the talent and the antics of Neymar become a topic. As we pointed out earlier in the tournament, Neymar had difficulty remaining even-keeled during Brazil’s run. All told, the 26-year-old has scored once in three matches for the 5-time champions. Whether it’s his talent, temper or both — fairly or unfairly — Neymar has become a target for opposing fans

Mexico started Group F play with a bang — shocking defending champion Germany (1–0) before edging South Korea (2–1) in their second match. Confidence was at an all time high and there were even whispers about a serious Mexico run — but any momentum El Tri generated to that point was dashed by Sweden who mauled them 3–0 to take the Group victory. It appeared Mexico’s World Cup run was over — until the massive upset by South Korea over Germany propelled Mexico to the knockout round and sent their fans into delirium

Hirving Lozano, Carlos Vela and Javier Hernandez have accounted for Mexico’s three goals thus far.

Player availability is always a factor once teams reach the knockout round. This matchup is no different. It does not appear this will alter the outcome of this particular match, but it’s always a good idea to monitor these types situations closely:

Mexico will have to play without centerback Hector Moreno, who is suspended. Brazil, meanwhile, has concerns over Marcelo after back spasms caused him to leave the field inside the opening 10 minutes against Serbia.

These two nations are squaring off for the 41st time — with Brazil holding the advantage to the tune of 23 wins, 7 draws and 10 losses.

Prediction

Our player focused model favors Brazil with a win probability of 78.5% and Mexico at 21.5%. Expected goals for Brazil 2.00 xG and Mexico 0.89 xG.

538 most heavily favors Brazil, giving Mexico only a 17% chance.

Bing gives a little more to Mexico, but still leans big on Brazil.

Google Search (90 minute model) favors Brazil with a 24% probability of the match going into extra time and/or shootout.

Enjoy the match.