What do we have to lose? Don’t ask Germany.

As we continue our tournament long analysis of World Cup using Google Cloud we highlight Group E play, and feature a match between two teams in Brazil and Serbia — with the pressure squarely on the shoulders of the former. The latter feels as if they’re playing with house money — and comes into the showdown loose and carefree.

So…what’s the worst that could happen for either squad? Well…for starters…Serbia has nothing to lose…Brazil has everything to lose. Nobody is giving Serbia a reasonable chance to win. For Brazil, despite their recent struggles, anything short of a victory would be considered a complete disaster.

It’s strange to even discuss the prospect of Brazil failing to reach the knockout round. But if Serbia could somehow win this match — and if Switzerland were to at least manage a draw with Costa Rica — the unthinkable would become reality. Brazil might be a sizeable favorite to win this match — but in terms of pressure — it carries most if not all of the burden — a fact not lost on Serbia’s star player Aleksandar Mitrovic:

“I think there is more pressure on Brazil, because they are not accustomed to this situation, that they can fall into the first round, while we have nothing to lose.”

After a disastrous opening draw (1–1) with Switzerland, Brazil slogged through a match with Costa Rica before rallying for a pair of injury time goals and a 2–0 victory. Although Brazilian megastar Neymar scored in the second match, he is still not 100% according to his manager since returning from a foot injury. He also has displayed some immature behavior witnessed by teammates, opponents, officials, fans and media:

“Screaming at referees, punching the ball in frustration and — according to Thiago Silva — insulting his team-mates, Neymar has threatened to boil over as various points already during this tournament.”

All drama aside, Brazil needs a lone point to advance to the knockout round.

Serbia, meanwhile, defeated Costa Rica 1–0 in their opening match before suffering a 2–1 defeat against Switzerland — which unfortunately was not without political controversy. Serbia could advance a) by pulling off a massive upset against Brazil b) garnering at least a draw with Brazil and a Switzerland loss by more than a goal to Costa Rica. Serbia would love a low scoring affair, as they have lost their last six World Cup matches in which they’ve been scored upon (winning the other two with a clean sheet).

This is only the second meeting between these two nations (Serbia winning independence as a country in 2006). In their last match, Brazil won a friendly in 2014 by a final of 1–0.

Prediction

Our model likes Brazil with a 63.8% win probability followed by a draw at 22.7% and a Serbia win probability of 13.5%. Our expected goal numbers show Brazil at 1.41 xG and Serbia at 0.65 xG

Google Search is very similar to our projection:

538 doesn’t show much variance from our model either:

Bing is bullish on Brazil — giving Serbia very little chance to win or draw even

Enjoy the match!