Would You Like Coffee or Tea?
Welcome back to analyzing the World Cup using Google Cloud here in the knockout round. This entry will focus on Colombia vs England. Before we dive into the matchup — consider the makeup of the round of 16. History reveals the uniqueness of this field (before the most recent eliminations):
Granted, the field is a bit smaller at this point, but it still goes to show how each World Cup event can make for a different set of dynamics. Now, onto the match at hand…
After a long dry spell in which Colombia missed 3 straight World Cups, they are appearing in back to back tournaments after resurfacing in Brazil four years ago. Los Cafeteros (The Coffee Growers) dropped their Group H opener to fellow knockout qualifier Japan (2–1) but rallied to blast Poland 3–0 and edge Senegal 1–0 to advance to the round of 16. The victory did not come without a cost, as star player James Rodriguez left with a calf injury. Simply put, if Rodriguez is unable to go against England, it would be a major blow to Colombia’s chances. Monitor this situation closely.
England squeaked by Tunisia 2–1 in their Group G opener, then annihilated Panama 6–1 (including 5 first half goals) before falling to Belgium 1–0. Some pundits claim by virtue of their second place finish in Group G, England might actually have an easier path through the knockout round. This remains to be seen. What isn’t up for debate are the exploits of star player Harry Kane, who has a World Cup leading 5 goals so far and is eyeing the Golden Boot after scoring both goals against Tunisia and notching a hat trick against Panama.
On a separate note — English football fans have a huge problem on their hands. It appears there is the possibility of a beer shortage in Britain at the most inopportune of moments. God Save the Beer.
Predictions
Our player focused model favors England with a win probability of 59.1% (1.65 xG) and Columbia at 40.9% (0.85 xG).
We are within a point on 538 with a 60–40 advantage to England.
Google Search (regular time only) favors England with a material probability of extra time and/or penalty kicks.
Bing leans in with some British optimism as they have the least favorable view for England. This is bordering pick’em territory.
