If you go by the headlines regularly, there is one thing that’s getting customary to you and that is the hot news is always death, destruction, war, terror and full of violence. The world is becoming more and more dangerous. It seems we are closer to the next world war. But are we?
There are more harmful and deadly weapons today than ever but are they really harming us? According to reports, we are living in one of the most peaceful times in the history of our world. The Human Security Report Project reports that
During 2012 — the most recent year for which there are data — the number of conflicts being waged around the world dropped sharply, from 37 to 32. High–intensity conflicts have declined by more than half since the end of the Cold War, while terrorism, genocide and homicide numbers are also down.
Also, The Boston Globe reports that
For nearly two-thirds of a century, from 1945 to 2011, war had been in overall decline. The global death rate had fallen from 22 per 100,000 people to 0.3.
Nuclear Weapons, one of the most damaging and lethal weapons ever created, used only twice, both times by the United States in Hiroshima and Nagasaki against Japan during the World War II, killing around 200,000 people. After that, nuclear bombs have only been tested and never used against anyone. It has been more than half a century, and nuclear bombs are now owned by more countries now. It was fine until one nation controlled a power, but when more than one country holds one of the most dangerous weapons that can destroy cities, everyone thinks about it. Nuclear weapons have surely developed, for good or for worse and can now destroy more than just cities. And now, nuclear war can result in just more than deaths.
There are tensions among governments very often these days. Not only The United States and North Korea are a matter to look into nuclear warfare, but countries like India and Pakistan can also be deadly for the whole world if a nuclear war is launched, which cannot be overlooked because of the continuing tensions in the borders of these countries. Even Russia is something to be taken care of.
But What Exactly Can A Nuclear War Cause?
There have been over 500 nuclear tests done and there have been fallouts. A Centers for Disease Control and Prevention/ National Cancer Institute study claims that fallout from atmospheric nuclear tests would lead to perhaps 11,000 excess deaths amongst people alive during atmospheric testing in the United States from all forms of cancer, including leukemia, from 1951 to well into the 21st century. Even groundwater can be contaminated and is an ongoing issue.
Another problem with a nuclear war is that it not only kills people during the war but keeps affecting that region for decades. One must not be afraid of the term “radiation”, but “ionizing radiation” which is one of the two types of radiation that exists, is dangerous and caused by a nuclear bomb.
If we think on a low scale, a war between India and Pakistan, with just around 50 nuclear weapons has the capability to reduce the planet’s temperature by 2 degrees Fahrenheit. This can cause several problems, like a change in season patterns and food shortages at a world-wide scale.
A larger war can cause what is called a “Nuclear Winter”, a global climatic cooling predicted to follow a nuclear war. This kind of situation is caused by the smoke from nuclear fires, which rises above cloud level, into the stratosphere, where it quickly spreads around the world and forms a dense stratospheric cloud layer. The smoke will remain there for many years to block and absorb sunlight. The smoke would block up to 70% of the sunlight from reaching the Earth’s surface in the Northern Hemisphere, and up to 35% of the sunlight would also be blocked in the Southern Hemisphere. We will reach the height of the last Ice age. This would lead to a dramatic reduction in precipitation and finally, affect crop growth. Even the ozone layer would be at its worst. Everything will lead to a situation where our existence becomes a question.
The Stabilty-Instability Paradox
Nuclear Weapons are at its level best. Then why are there no people dying in wars? Why is this the most peaceful moment? What is even the point of developing and spending millions into nuclear weapons? But, for these questions to be valid we must understand Is there any war?
Yes, there are people fighting in Syria. Isn’t that a war? It is a civil war. A war between its own people, along with a government that is difficult to understand. Moreover, that is not a war between two nuclear powers. There are no wars today that need nuclear assistance. Why is this so? Is nuclear development a waste?
There are reasons why there is no war. The very first reason is democracy and sovereignty. Most countries are democratic today. Does that give an essence of peace? According to Borgen Magazine
As the number of democratic nations increases, the more likely it is that world peace is achieved
Democracies face conflicts regularly, but they don’t fight each other and there is no reason for it.
Sovereignty has been the biggest problem and the prime cause for war. But there have been deals and acts agreed upon, which has resulted into a almost the absence of any property conflict matters between countries.
But the greatest reason for why we are not watching a war that should concern everyone on this planet is nuclear weapons. It is not only civilians who are concerned about the consequences. Everyone knows. The results a nuclear war would bring cannot be a peaceful promise. This is the ultimate reason why the stability keeps on increasing and our military forces do not walk on battlefields today. This situation is called “The Stability-Instability Paradox”
Countries are now more into talking and resolving issues than taking up arms to fight. The nuclear weapons have indeed created a better situation in terms of war. There are continuous conflicts between major countries holding nuclear power like The United States, Russia, North Korea, India, and Pakistan but these conflicts are longer than ever. A conclusion does not come up and the conflict goes on. People keep talking and relations keep getting worse, but a war is not very close. But is this really helping?
If people don’t die in wars and there are no major conflicts, then why is that every day, a headline makes you feel that the world is no more a safe place? And why do these headlines seem more frequent than ever?
The Stabilty-Instability Paradox is much more than just the reduction of major attacks. The probability of minor or indirect conflicts between countries are increasing. This is because rational governments want to avoid nuclear wars, and thus they neither start major conflicts nor allow minor conflicts to escalate into major conflicts. Maybe people don’t die in battles, but people do die in restaurants, cinemas and public places. This paradox does not make the world a better place, it just does not finish it all at once.
The minor conflicts are minor in terms of a war but actually, they are nothing but parts of war in our daily lives. Battlefields are a waste now. We live in one battlefield, where there can be any attack, any time. There wasn’t much of a gap between the two world wars. Just three decades. Isn’t it too late for the third one? Well, the paradox has shown its effects here and the minor casualties are at peak.
One example is the “Twin Peak” between India and Pakistan. The first peak, the attacks in the Indian parliament and the second, 26/11 Mumbai attacks. No nuclear war, just minor conflicts which killed around 180 people. The US mass attacks, maybe another such minor conflict which has killed more than 400 people in around 20 attacks.
It is not difficult to understand the reality. Maybe democracies have been achieved and wars are coming to an end but people are still dying, only this time the soldiers are not alone to die.
