Weekly Crypto Market_ Nov 25, 2022

1. Week in Review

Coinbase’s bond due 2031 has dropped 15% in value this month to 50 U.S. cents on the dollar, according to data source Finra-Morningstar, sending the yield — which moves in the opposite direction to price — to a record high of 13.5%.
MicroStrategy followed a similar trend: On Friday, the yield on the company’s 2028 notes, issued last year to finance bitcoin accumulation, climbed to 13.35% as the price dropped to a record 72.5 cents on the dollar.
The companies’ bonds carry a premium of around 1,000 basis points — or 10 percentage points — to the U.S. 10-year Treasury note yield, as of Friday. In traditional markets, a premium of that level is taken to represent credit stress. The 10-year Treasury was yielding 3.83% at press time.
Mike Alfred, a value investor and founder of digital assets investment platform Eaglebrook Advisors, said that high bond yields are “reflective of sharply higher rates” but also of “genuine skepticism about the long-term viability of crypto amongst institutional investors” following the contagion fallout from a list of crypto firms this year.
Coinbase’s shares dropped to $40.62 Monday, hitting an all-time low since it went public in April 2021, CoinDesk’s Helene Braun reported.
Some investors believe bonds tied to Coinbase and MicroStrategy are a safer way to bet on a crypto bull revival. According to Rich Rosenblum, co-founder of crypto trading firm and liquidity provider GSR noted that while bonds are a safer route, the upside is also “far more muted.”
“You have witnessed probably one of the most abrupt and difficult collapses in the history of corporate America,” James Bromley of Sullivan and Cromwell, an attorney representing FTX, explained during the company’s first bankruptcy hearing.
Bromley described the FTX empire — at its height valued at $32 billion — as the “personal fiefdom of Sam Bankman-Fried,” the former CEO of the exchange.
When Bankman-Fried reluctantly relinquished his position to FTX’s new CEO, former Enron cleanup man John Jay Ray III, it allowed those left at the company to, “for the first time, really see under the covers and recognize that the emperor had no clothes,” according to Bromley.
Though Bromley did not identify Bankman-Fried by name, he told the court that FTX “was in the control of a small group of inexperienced and unsophisticated individuals, and unfortunately, the evidence seems to indicate that some or all of them are also compromised individuals.”
There are over 100 different debtors tied to the FTX group that filed for bankruptcy, another attorney said.

Source : Coindesk

2. Cryptocurrency Price Trend

1) Cryptocurrency Market State Visualizaion (1W)

2) Total Cryptocurrency Market Cap

3) Weekly Crypto Asset Flows

Digital asset investment products saw inflows totalling US$44m last week in what represents very mixed sentiment amongst investors. Short investment product inflows represented 75% of the total inflows suggesting on aggregate sentiment was deeply negative for the asset class,likely being a direct result of the ongoing fallout from the FTX collapse. Total Assets under management is now at the lowest point in 2 years at US$22BN.

4) BTC Spent Output Age Bands

7-year-old 10,000 $BTC moved on November, 24th.

Ki Young Ju, CEO of Cryptoquant twitted : — No surprise, it’s from criminals, like most of the old Bitcoins. It’s the BTC-e exchange wallet related to the 2014 Mt. Gox hack. They sent 65 BTC to @hitbtca few hours ago, so it’s not a gov auction or something.

3. VC Investment Trends

1) Crypto Funds AUM

2) Flows by Asset

3) Major VC Fund Portfolio Gainers

4. Weekly Macro Economy Review

1) The Federal Reserve Pivot Is Coming In December .
- The Federal Reserve pivot will come in December because the next jobs report is almost guaranteed to be lousy.

2) Flash PMI data for November signal falling output in the US manufacturing
- US flash PMI slides to 46.3, Eurozone flash PMI edges up to 47.8.

3) Treasury Yield-Curve Inversion Reaches a Four-Decade Extreme
- Two-year yield exceeds 10-year by more than 58 basis points. Expected peak in Fed policy rate next year exceeds

4) Fed to lift rates by 50 basis points
- The Federal Reserve will downshift in December to deliver a 50-basis-point interest rate hike, but economists polled by Reuters say a longer period of U.S. central bank tightening and a higher policy rate peak are the greatest risks to the current outlook.

5) Dollar rises as China COVID worries spook markets
- The U.S. dollar rose against most major currencies on Monday, recouping recent losses, as fresh COVID-19 curbs in China fuelled worries over the global economic outlook and made traders shun riskier currencies.