TLDR: Election 2016 was the GOP’s dead-cat bounce
Despite Election 2016's dead-cat bounce, the GOP is in the midst of a demographic maelstrom
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“ the Republican Party has been salivating on the unexpected opportunity laying before them — control of the White House and both chambers of Congress.
“ a far cry from the 2013 … report, a post-mortem designed to identify what had gone wrong in Mitt Romney’s 2012 defeat, … focused on needed outreach to women and minorities, immigration reform, and softening language to become a more inclusive and tolerant party.
“ [The GOP is] statistically experiencing the ultimate political “dead cat bounce”
“ The key to understanding this phenomenon for the Republican Party is to look at changing U.S. demographics.
“ Minorities increasingly comprise larger shares of the U.S. population with Hispanics and African-Americans currently making up 17.6% and 13.3 % … whites now make up just 61.6%
“ The U.S. Census Bureau now estimates that by 2044, no race or ethnicity in the U.S. will represent a majority
“ In this past November’s Presidential election, Democrats benefited from 89% and 66% of African-American and Latino votes, respectively.
“ though whites currently only make up just shy of 62% of the U.S. population, they accounted for 71% of all voters [voting overwhelmingly for Trump over Clinton] 57% to 37%
“ One of the single largest segments within the white voter demographic are white evangelical voters [who] made up close to 37% of all white voters at the polls in Novemberand a striking 26% of total voters [with] an overwhelming 80% [voting for Trump]
“ non-evangelical whites comprised 63% of the total white voteand 45% of the overall vote….and it turns out they broke for the Democrat Clinton by a healthy 6% margin.
“ the population that identifies as white evangelical is shrinking, while at the same time [their voter turnout] is increasing [to 85% rate in 2016]
“ Yet, surprisingly President Trump appears to be doubling down on this exact group that is already saturated [at the expense of rising minorities]