Still Loading… The Future of 5G

As of H12023, while exact figures are hard to come by, just over 200 networks offered commercial 5G services, and only about one-fifth were 5G SA offerings. I might have laughed in your face if you had told me this would be the case four years ago. 5G was the future, and we were assured the future was just around the corner. But then a worldwide pandemic wiped almost two years out of the march towards 5G.

As a Service Assurance company, Anritsu was ready, very early on, to be at the forefront of 5G Service Assurance, prepared to provide visibility into issues around 5G testing and launches worldwide. But the market stumbled and only now appears to be finding its feet again.

Looking back to history, 3G also took a long time to reach maturity, perhaps because we weren’t aware of the need for higher-speed internet access and the benefits to us as consumers. By the time 4G rolled around, though, the world was chomping at the bit for faster internet access to support video streaming habits. 4G’s introduction was also supported with plenty of 4G capable devices early enough in the rollout timeline to retain and even increase the public’s interest.

And so, here we are, hurtling towards 2024 with a distinct need to re-benchmark all our expectations about 5G, its adoption, and what it means for operators and consumers alike. But it wasn’t just COVID that took its toll on the 5G dream. The industry got very giddy about the ‘Next Big Thing’ well before it had a chance to mature. The business cases behind a 5G SA network are still, to this day, waiting to be proven adequately. I still remember all the early talk about Enhanced Mobile Broadband (eMBB), Ultra Reliable Low Latency Communications (URLLC), and Massive Machine Type Communications (mMTC). They were discussed in depth in all the publications, at all the conferences, and by all the Telco personalities. Many new companies were formed to explore the potential of each of these.

So, why has the 5G future yet to fully materialise, and what can be done to drive it forward?

Of course, there is not one single thing that is hampering 5G SA adoption. The reality is always a little more complicated. So, what are some of the clear stumbling blocks to 5G adoption?

Lack of Clear Consumer Business Case

This fault here lies squarely with the operators themselves. Why should I, as a mobile subscriber, pay more for a 5G subscription? Unfortunately, some operators pushed the 5G logo to consumer phones in a bid for marketing and market superiority, sometimes before 5G NSA was even available. It is a harder sell now to expect subscribers to pay more for something they feel they already have or deserve. This leads operators to rebrand their actual 5G SA offering as something else (e.g., Vodafone UK’s 5G Ultra, Jio’s True 5G) in the hope that consumers can somehow forgive and forget. Will it work? Will I look for more on my mobile device if I can comfortably stream Netflix, Prime, Hulu, etc., on my phone with 5G NSA speeds? What is the use case that would make me take this leap? Is it only a niche market like low-latency gaming? I think the jury is still out. Perhaps the riches lie less with the consumer and more in the B2B market.

Lack of 5G SA Devices

If operators want to use some of the benefits of 5G SA to their advantage (e.g., Network Slicing), they rely on the availability of compatible mobile and IoT devices. Worldwide chip production and supply problems have taken their toll not just on servers but also on the number of 5G SA devices available. Manufacturers are also understandably slow to bring new devices to the market when the number of operators capable of supporting and utilising them is minimal. Another 5G SA use case, Private Networks, will rely heavily on devices that can take advantage of network slicing.

Lack of Monetisable Use Cases

As mentioned, 5G SA was sold to the world on the back of eMBB, URLLC and mMTC capabilities. The initial use cases that caused such fanfare have failed to achieve large-scale, real-world implementations thus far. For example, low-latency cloud gaming doesn’t appear to have the widescale appeal expected. Industry 4.0 is still finding its feet. V2X (Vehicle to Everything) still has a long way to go.

Each of the above is a particular pain point for operators who want to roll out 5G SA. Executive buy-in will be difficult to come by under such a cloud of industry doom and gloom.

There is light at the end of the tunnel, though. Apart from the revenue generation issues mentioned above, 5G SA brings many opportunities for operators to improve work practices and workflows and embrace the concepts of Cloud Native, AI, and automation to their fullest.

But let’s save that for the next article…