Heads Up Hand of the Week — March 20th, 2009

The villain has played a lot of hands but he’s a breakeven player. He’s a bit too loose from the big blind and he occasionally makes some really spazzy plays. He’s 3bet pretty aggressively, but not an unreasonable amount. He continuation bets almost every one of his 3bets.

Hero (Button) ($243.10)
SB ($107.20)

Preflop: Hero is Button with 4♠, 5♠
Hero bets $3, SB raises to $11, Hero calls $8

Flop: ($22) 3♣, 5♣, 4♣ (2 players)
SB bets $17, Hero calls $17

Turn: ($56) 2♠ (2 players)

SB bets $35, Hero folds

The flop may seem awesome at first, but if I raise, I know that my equity against his range of hands is not great. If I raise the flop, what hands will the villain call/raise with? And how does my 2 pair fare against them?

If he has an overpair with clubs, like JsJc for example, I’m actually slightly behind.
If he has an overpair with no clubs, I have 70% equity.
If he has something like AcKs, I only have 55% equity.

If I raise on the flop and get it in, it’s still a +EV play, but it’s just not optimal. I want to call and get the money in on a safe turn card (anything except a 2 or a club).