The Isildur1 Supernova

According to Wikipedia:

Supernovae are extremely luminous and cause a burst of radiation that often briefly outshines an entire galaxy, before fading from view over several weeks or months.

It looks like Isildur1 fits that definition to a “T”. He emerged on the poker scene from nowhere. People have speculated that it’s likely blom90 (a Swedish poker player) from the iPoker network. He ran up to the nosebleed stakes in just a few months and eventually crushed the legendary durrrr for millions.

A lot of people questioned how long his run could last. I mean, no matter how good you are, it can’t be a good idea to play durrrr, Phil Ivey, and Patrick Antonius simultaneously on 8 tables. Not to mention he’s recently been playing a lot of PLO and NLHE is definitely his stronger game.

Anyway, there’s no doubt Isildur1 is a very good player, but watching the brutal Patrick Antonius vs. Isildur1 action last night, I got reminded of a great post on 2+2:

Poker history is full of hot shot maestros who quickly racked up big wins by making just the right mistakes to exploit their regular opponents. Unfortunately, their egos usually didn’t allow them to recognize their deviations from perfect play as theoretical mistakes; in their minds, they were natural talents playing an unbeatable game.

Then, the sober, seasoned players moved in, systematically destroying the maestros and their mistakes. Since the maestros were oblivious to their own mistakes, they lost. And they kept losing, wondering louder with each bad session how they could possibly run so badly against these “unimaginative” players. Their big wins disappeared, and broke, they slumped out of the poker world none the wiser.

Don’t be a sucker. There’s a perfect unbeatable strategy, and it’s determined by math, not by talent. Great players don’t stick to that strategy; they intentionally deviate from it to take advantage of their opponents. But truly great players also know full well what weaknesses those deviations expose, and if they see someone going after them, they shut down quickly. They’re willing to make mistakes, but only when they can swap those mistakes to their opponents for bigger ones. When their mistakes become the ones, they stop making them.

Learn the fundamental principles of no limit and stay perpetually aware that your goal is to trade small mistakes for big ones.

- No Limit Hold ’em: Theory and Practice by David Sklansky and Ed Miller

Isildur1 didn’t change poker as we know it (as INTERNETPOKERS claimed). He’s gonna be more a flash in the pan — crushing one month, gone the next.