Zeebo Theorem

This week is Theorem Week! I’ll be talking about Zeebo Theorem, Baluga Theorem, Clarkmeister Theorem, The Yeti Theorem, Aejones Theorem, and Ansky Theorem.

So let’s kick things off with Zeebo’s Theorem. Simply put, Zeebo’s Theorem states that no one ever folds a full house. It doesn’t matter if you make a 1/2 pot sized bet, a full pot sized bet, or massively overbet. The villain will not fold their full house, even on a very dangerous board.

Let’s look at an example…

Hero (Button) ($100.00)
SB ($100.00)

Preflop: Hero is Button with J♠, J♣
Hero bets $3, SB calls $2

Flop: ($6) 3♣, 5♦, 3♥ (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $5, SB calls $5

Turn: ($16) T♠ (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $12, SB calls

River: ($40) 3♠ (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $80 (All-in), SB calls

Results:
Hero wins $200 with J♠, J♣
Villain mucks 5♥, 6♣

So what are the implications of Zeebo’s Theorem?
1. If you think the other person holds a full house and you can’t beat it, do not bluff. It is extremely unlikely you are going to get your opponent off their hand.
2. Massively overbet if you have a strong full house and you suspect your opponent has a weaker full house. They will call.

Counter-strategy:
Every strategy has a counter-strategy. And every counter-strategy has a counter-counter-strategy. If you know that your opponent knows Zeebo’s Theorem, you should adjust your strategy accordingly. That translates to folding your weak full houses on dangerous boards to massive overbets. That can also mean bluffing someone off a weak full house with a massive overbet (though this is not recommended).

Finally, unlike some of the theorems we’ll discuss later, Zeebo’s Theorem is remarkably reliable. You can be reasonably sure it will work against a wide variety of opponents.

Stay tuned for the next post in Theorem Week. Baluga Theorem is up next.