This Infectious Disease Model Could Predict the Level of Unrest After the US 2020 Election
The level of polarization is concerning to everyone in the US and across the globe, and this model could predict if it catalyzes into violent unrest.
The SIR Model
The SIR model is an epidemiology model to help predict the spread of infectious diseases. It’s acronym stands for Susceptible, Infectious and Recovered. This epidemiology model is a great mental model that can predict social contagion as well. In a social context, the susceptible individual is the naïve type, the infectious are the radicals and the recovered are the moderates.
The radicals can be thought as those holding extremist views or incite the violence and infect the naïve, whom their minds are ripe to be infected by the radicals. The moderates on the other hand, were not susceptible to the ideas of the radicals but rather were either always moderate or were once radicals. Radicals stem from moderates becoming corrupted by an unknown cause (exogenous) and thus converting to radical views.
SIR Model Prediction for Society
What this model can predict for us is the amount of radicals to naïve. If navies are low, then radicals are high and vice versa. As a result, if the first scenario takes hold, then violent unrest is much more likely.
This begs the question, what is the number of radicals? Is the number of Trump supporters a good proxy? No, for the former has moderates as well voting for him. The indication may be the level of extremist groups that have prompt up recently such as the militia group attempting to take the Michigan governor hostage. Undoubtedly, this is not the first domestic terrorist group, however, if the data points to a marked increase in extremist groups from both sides of the political spectrum than the SIR model may prove to be a suitable model for social contagion.
Let us hope the model is wrong.
