Trump, American Democracy, and Nassim Taleb’s Parable of the Turkey
A Fable in which We are the Turkey
“On current trends,” the turkey thinks during the first week of November, “things are looking pretty good. I get food and water and I am surrounded by my fellow turkeys. They seem happy too.”
Sure, the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan were disastrous, costly, and poorly considered and the Patriot Act was an over-reaction, but no one in Washington admits the error and the president gets re-elected and no leaders lose their jobs or reputations. The lesson: never admit error.
“Things could be better, actually,” the turkeys say to themselves and each other in the second week of the month. “I’d rather not have to stay inside this fence and life was better when my wings worked. Still, it’s a good enough life.”
Yes, the 2008 crisis was really bad. People lost their homes and livelihoods and entire zip-codes became disaster areas, but at least we saved the economy from depression and the banking system from collapse. But once again there is no accountability to those who profited from the corrupt system for decades and no financial manipulators are punished. Bonuses were paid. The lesson: you can’t beat the house.
One of the birds passing through told the turkeys that they really should get a look at how the farmer makes his money; that something fishy was happening. But the farmer called those birds “snowflakes” and asserted that he was the turkeys’ true friend. “I alone can care for you,” the farmer told the turkeys. “Those other birds were heading south. I’m here for you.”
And we elected Donald Trump, despite the obvious character flaws, epic self-dealing, and habitual lying because, we thought, our system can contain him. He will become more presidential, surround himself with competent people, and be held in check by congress, the courts, the press, and the ballot box.
Well, here we are. The competent people have been fired or driven out, congressional oversight has been ignored and decimated, the courts have been stacked with acolytes. Public discourse has been flooded with “fake news” to the point where many of us have stopped trying to tell truth from lie. And Trump, after months of warning us that he did not trust the elections and would not commit to a handover of power, sits in the White House, further degrading our democracy with every passing hour.
And still, Republican leaders tiptoe around him because they need him in Georgia or because his supporters would abandon the party if he becomes a “loser” or because they assume the system will work despite their cowardice, because peaceful transfer of power has never failed before.
“Tomorrow is Thanksgiving,” the farmer says to the turkeys with a sharp blade gleaming at his side.
The lesson: Our assumptions work until they don’t, at which point we are all turkeys.
