US Envoy’s Angry Reaction To Modi-Putin Talks Is Undiplomatic, Unwarranted
The US Ambassador to India, Eric Garcetti, may have exceeded his brief by issuing a warning to India that the country can’t take its improved relationship with the United States for granted in the context of Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow, last week. The ambassador, as also the US state department, was clearly upset with Modi-Putin bonhomie during the Indian prime minister’s two-day visit in Moscow. Modi has described Russia as India’s all-weather friend. Modi had embraced Putin for steering India-Russia friendship to greater heights in the last 20 years. The Indian PM was conferred the highest Russian civilian award, Order of St Andrew the Apostle, during his visit. The award was announced five years ago for Modi’s contribution to fostering bilateral ties between the two countries. Putin had reaffirmed commitment to the resilient Russia-India relationship against the backdrop of a challenging and uncertain geopolitical situation.
The Indian PM rapped the Russian president publicly as he said that Russia-Ukraine peace talks could not succeed in the shadow of guns while venting his anger over a Russian missile strike on Ukraine’s largest hospital for children on the day Modi had landed in Moscow after a gap of five years. India has always argued for peace talks between Russia and Ukraine, also a friendly nation, to settle their disputes. Prime Minister Modi had emphasized to President Putin that the solution to the Russia-Ukraine conflict lay in dialogue and not on the battlefield.
Ukraine too has been a longstanding friend of India. The war has affected bilateral trade and economic relations between India and Ukraine. The volume of trade between the two countries has been downward since the Russia-Ukraine war. It dropped from $3.38 billion in 2021 to $2.58 billion in 2022. India runs a deficit trade balance with Ukraine. Lately, the two countries agreed to restore trade and bilateral cooperation to pre-Russia war levels. It is wrong to surmise that India is not using its influence to convince the belligerent parties to end the war and bring them to peace talks.
Contrary to the threat and outburst by the US ambassador in Delhi, White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre’s statement appeared to be more down to earth. She said: “India is a strategic partner with whom we engage in full and frank dialogue, including their relationship with Russia and we have talked about this before. So we think it is critical that all countries, including India, support efforts to realize an enduring and just peace when it comes to Ukraine. It is important for all our allies to realise this.” India does realise this. However, the US should also realise that Russia has been a time-tested strategic partner of India. The US must appreciate that the US-India strategic alliance along with Japan and Australia (QUAD) to contain the expansionist China in the Indo-Pacific region did not upset Russia, a strong China ally especially since the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine war.
US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan may be wrong to believe that Moscow would side with Beijing over New Delhi in case of a conflict between China and India. The fact is that such a conflict already exists strongly with the Chinese military continuously engaging India on its northern and north-eastern borders. Russia is yet to forget the Chinese military aggression and a seven-month-long border conflict between the former Soviet Union and China in 1969. The Ukraine war and the US embargo on Russia has brought China, the biggest military and economic adversary to the US, closer to Russia.
Notably, the US has always been strategically soft towards India on its oil import options. India is 86 percent import dependent on oil. The US understood India’s severe oil constraints and did not stand in the way of India’s massive oil import from Russia. It is not easy for any country to maintain strategic autonomy in times of conflict between its two strong allies. India is desperately trying to do that in the case of ongoing war between Russia and US-backed Ukraine. It may be worth noting that despite India’s historical support for Palestine, India has strongly maintained its strategic relationship with Israel fighting an all-out war against Palestinian Hamas militants.
There is nothing to be excited or concerned about the Indo-Russian joint statement at the end of Prime Minister Modi’s visit to Moscow. Russia has been non-interventionist in so far as India’s local and world affairs are concerned. It has been most helpful to India since the 1960s, when most world economic and military powers kept their distance from India. The US chose Pakistan as its most preferred strategic partner in the region. Hard up for convertible foreign currency, India was offered a barter-trade solution by Russia in the 1960s and ’70s. The three most interesting points of the latest Indo-Russian joint statement are: (1) facilitation of Russian corporate investment in India; (2) ramp-up the bilateral trade to $100 billion by 2030 from the current level of $65 billion; and (3) both sides agreeing to go ahead with trade in national currency. Rosneft, a giant Russian petroleum enterprise, which indirectly controls one of India’s biggest oil refineries, is planning to set up a green field project in the country. Currently, Russia
However, a $100-billion worth bilateral trade with Russia by 2030 looks highly ambitious at this stage. India’s massive increase in the import of cheaper Russian oil after the Ukraine war is mainly responsible for a sudden spurt in India’s trade with Russia. The situation may change sharply after Russia and Ukraine decide to halt the aggression. It may be noted that the Indo-Russian bilateral trade in 2020–21 amounted to only worth $8.1 billion. Indian exports amounted to $2.6 billion while its imports from Russia aggregated $5.48 billion.
While massive oil imports from Russia changed the volume and pattern of the Indo-Russian trade, India is still struggling to raise exports to Russia. Last year, China, the №1 strategic adversary of India, marginally surpassed the US as the country’s top trade partner (mostly as exporter). As a strategic ally, the US would probably do well to advise India on how the country could drastically reduce imports and investments from China. The US must not panic over the Russia-India relationship as it poses absolutely no threat to India’s growing strategic alliance with America. (IPA Service)
Originally published at Arabian Post.
