The Kurds Are No Easy Ally
As President Trump seeks to eviscerate ISIS, here’s everything you need to know about the group he will likely rely on
U.S. support of Syrian Kurds backs their fighters against ISIS but threatens Turkey, a NATO ally, and provides opportunities for Russian expansion in the region.
When President Donald Trump visited the Pentagon on Friday to meet with Defense Secretary James Mattis and the Joint Chiefs of Staff it is a safe bet that the commander-in-chief raised one topic in particular: How the United States can hit the Islamic State and its strongholds in Syria hard.
In fact, the next day the president ordered the Pentagon to submit a war plan within 30 days detailing how the military can decisively defeat ISIS.
It’s likely the Friday talks included discussion about America’s most stalwart ally in the fight: the Kurds.
Called either the YPG (People’s Protection Units) or the Syrian Defense Force (SDF), for more than two years the Kurds have proved themselves fierce and effective fighters against the Islamic State.
The Kurds fighting in Syria receive military aid and support from the U.S., which permitted the Obama administration to avoid a large-scale commitment of American ground forces to the bloody conflict in that war-torn country.
But the consequences of U.S. support of the Kurds in their fight against ISIS are fraught with serious diplomatic and military complications.
So far, supporting Kurdish fighters means a U.S. military presence limited to a contingent of about 400 Special Forces who advise and train the Kurds. But even that support infuriates Turkey — a NATO ally — whose president Recep Tayyip Erdogan says the YPG is linked to the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), which both Turkey and the United States have labeled a terrorist group.
This chart illustrates the complexity of the situation:
One possible result: continued or increased U.S. support of the insurgents could even push Turkey and America’s Kurdish allies into open warfare in Syria, adding to the bloodshed.
In addition, Turkey is now a totalitarian religious state that shares few values with the United States but works to develop closer ties to the Russian Federation.
Meanwhile, the Russians have used their increased military presence and political influence in the Middle East to play a geopolitical chess game aimed at eroding the U.S/Turkish alliance — part of the Kremlin’s larger strategy of weakening NATO at every turn.
What President Trump and his new administration think of these complications and what they specifically plan to do remains unclear. The president made no mention of ISIS during his public comments at the Pentagon.
During the presidential campaign, then-candidate Trump said repeatedly that he had a secret plan to defeat ISIS.
Rex Tillerson, former CEO of Exxon-Mobil and President Trump’s nominee for Secretary of State, recently indicated he believes keeping the Kurds in the fight against ISIS is a good idea.
“Can we construct a renewed coalition using the forces that are already there, including the Syrian Kurds, which have been our great allies?” Tillerson asked during his confirmation hearings while also indicating the U.S. should attempt talks with the Turkish government regarding Ankara’s concerns.
The State Department did not respond to e-mails requesting comment for this article.
One thing is clear: the Russians will continue to do everything they can to drive a wedge between the U.S. and Turkey, said James Miller, editor of The Interpreter Magazine and a Russian affairs analyst who has watched Moscow’s strategy in the region unfold.
“Russia is now assisting Turkey in its fight against ISIS near al-Bab” [a town in northern Syria that Turkey has struggled to seize from the Islamic State], Miller said. “Once Turkey captures that city, they will be free to move against weaker ISIS positions, and this is when we could potentially see Turkey’s war against PKK-linked Kurdish groups expand. If that happens, the alliance between Turkey and the U.S. may be at a serious crossroads. Either way, Russia wins.”
Also, President Trump has repeatedly said he will seek better relations with the Kremlin. Apparently, the president and his administration believe they can improve ties between the United States and Turkey while pursuing better relations with Russia at the same time, said retired U.S. Army Brig. Gen. Peter Zwack, former military attaché to Moscow and Senior Russia-Eurasia Research Fellow at National Defense University.
But that doesn’t mean that the Kremlin will abandon Bashar al-Assad and the Syrians, some of Russia’s staunchest allies. Nor will it let U.S. support for the Kurds jeopardize gaining the most advantageous relationship possible with the Trump administration.
“A major Russian goal appears to keep rebel pressure off the Assad regime, consolidate its position, and secondarily work with coalition partners including possibly the U.S. to eradicate ISIS,” Zwack said. “The Kurds, themselves represented by several factions, continue to complicate U.S. and Turkish relations, and the Russians have exploited this. Their shifting postures regarding the Kurds are purely tactical. Undoubtedly the Kurds are a key ally in the fight against ISIS.”
On Saturday, President Trump spoke to Russian President Vladimir Putin officially by telephone for the first time. Their call reportedly included discussing how the United States and Russia can work together on the fight against ISIS in Syria.
As for the Kurds, the outlook for them remaining in the fight and receiving increased U.S. aid — including possible helicopter and artillery support — looks good.
Sources interviewed for this article said the SDF is a powerful military force essential to the defeat of ISIS. That puts the Kurds in an excellent negotiating position.
What’s more, the Kurdish people of northeastern Syria appear to benefit from de facto Kurdish autonomy. The Assad regime does not have the manpower to govern or militarily occupy the region, so it is likely the Kurds will be able to negotiate a settlement that allows them to keep that autonomy — even in the unlikely event that the U.S. withdraws its support.
But one thing will almost certainly never happen: the creation of an independent Kurdish state. Often referred to either as Rojava or Kurdistan, it is a centuries-old Kurdish dream that neither Russia nor Turkey — nor perhaps the United States — want fulfilled.
“All want to defeat the Islamic State. None want a Kurdish state to arise,” said Joost Hiltermann, program director, Middle East and North Africa, for the International Crisis Group, a Brussels-based organization that works to prevent wars. “The U.S. alliance with the YPG is purely tactical. It’s using the YPG as if it’s a security contractor.”
