Energy Consumption Per Capita — Part 3
The United States Energy Profile
Bitesize Edition
- The United States is one of the most advanced nations on the planet. For those who have read the previous two parts of this miniseries, you’ll know energy = life, because I mention it an annoying amount. Last week we saw that India has set itself up for rapid economic growth over the coming decades, and this is being facilitated with fossil fuels.
- The United States finds itself in a different position. They’re diversifying their energy profile with renewable development, and the shale revolution that kicked off in 2014 gave them further options for energy security. Even attitudes towards nuclear seem to be shifting under Biden.
- Looking forward, the United States has undergone industrialization, and some signs point towards the end of the US heyday, such as high government debts and layers of red tape stifling innovation and productivity. The question of where sustained economic growth could come from leads many to think of artificial intelligence. But like any pursuit of human innovation before, it requires energy. Where and how you get this energy in a multipolar world is important as states pivot towards greater self-sufficiency.
- Energy security gives a nation the option to pivot, and to be less susceptible to damage from geopolitical rivals through weaponised supply chains. The trade war is intensifying as I discussed on Monday, but is the United States in a position to avoid some damage in the energy realm due to its diversified energy portfolio if it ever came to this?
- The clean energy transition is also a huge task, especially where the focus on it is the strongest, which is typically developed Western countries. With the United States one such country, why is 81.06% of primary energy consumption still coming from fossil fuels? The idea behind a cleaner world is one many can get behind, including me. However, we have to be realistic. Can 2050 goals be hit at the current pace? Let’s dive into all this below.
Introduction
In the previous two parts of this miniseries, I’ve explored the energy profiles of Somalia and India. In part 2, I covered lessons that Somalia could learn from India’s rapid economic rise since the 1990s, and how energy would play a part in it. Quick spoiler, India used and still mainly uses fossil fuels in its energy profile, and if underdeveloped countries like Somalia were to find themselves in a position to improve the quality of life for its citizens, it is likely fossil fuels would be the facilitator if they took this pursuit alone.
Now, let’s look at a developed country: The United States. How do we get from developing India with a largely fossil fuel energy profile, to the United States which has an array of energy sources at its disposal? Let’s dive in.
Developed Example: The United States
Since the dataset began in 1990 and before this, the United States has seen 100% of its population have access to electricity and clean fuels for cooking. As a developed nation, this is expected. Still, there are some interesting takeaways from exploring the US energy profile.
Energy use per person in the United States sits at 78,754 kWh per person. Using last week’s example, 1 kWh powers a 100-watt lightbulb for 10 hours. So each person in the United States could power a 100-watt lightbulb for 787,540 hours, or 32814 days, or 89.9 years. A stark difference from Somalians being able to power the same lightbulb for 2170 hours, or 90 days. These are the quality-of-life differences that ample, diverse, secure energy supply and the infrastructure that allows it can bring. It’s why when many in developed countries flick a light switch on, or turn on a plug to charge our phones or turn on the TV, it’s completely taken for granted.
Per capita electricity generation sits at 12,497 kWh per person.
Electricity generation sits at 4249.05TWh.
The interesting point in my opinion is these charts seemingly stagnating. India was sharply rising, but the United States has found itself in a position where its entire population has access to electricity and clean fuels for cooking. So where do they go from here? Is stagnation of these per capita datasets inevitable as the entire population accesses electricity and clean fuels, or are they a function of population growth?
For the sake of consistency with the previous parts, let’s explore population growth and gross national income per capita in the United States to see if they’re improving quality of life or stagnating.
Population Percentage Change Since 1990= 35.84%
GNI Per Capita Percentage Change Since 1990 = 69.58%
As we can see, the United States is increasing GNI per capita at a faster rate than the population. This proxy implies that the quality of life is increasing for Americans.
There is less growth in America than in India, but India is developing as its entire population doesn’t yet have access to electricity or clean cooking fuels. It’s obvious where India can progress here, but where does the United States of America go from here?
Maintaining Energy Security: Looking Forward
To analyse the United States going forward, let’s look at their energy consumption by source.
We see oil consumption declining as gas consumption rises. Coal consumption is falling, nuclear is flat, and renewables rising. The key point here is the consumption of fossil fuels in total. For a country at the forefront of the green transition, 81.06% of primary energy is consumed from fossil fuels. 81.06%! Note, that this does include gas which will be important in the clean transition, but we’re going to focus on the long-term trend of fossil fuel consumption.
I’m not one to extrapolate trends, but the forecast I calculated here demonstrates that 2050 would require a faster rate of clean transition than is currently occurring. This would require huge amounts of investment.
By 2080, the forecast indicates that 59.4% of primary energy is still consumed from fossil fuels. The lower bound of the confidence interval sits at 12.59% and the upper bound at 106.2%. Of course, 106.2% is unrealistic, and there is an active effort to cut back on fossil fuels, as we can see in the earlier graphic a fall in coal usage in the United States and the rise in gas, wind, and solar. Still, many nations, especially in Asia, are seeing their coal consumption flat or rising, as we saw with India in last week’s discussion.
What the forecast does say is at the current pace, by 2080, 30 years after many targets are set for (2050), more than half of primary energy will be consumed from fossil fuels. As a result, if these lofty goals for 2050 want to be hit, the pace needs to quicken. This brings up many issues. The United States is in a position to attempt to do this as one of the most innovative and technologically advanced nations on the planet. Other nations are not. In Somalia, for example, they will focus on being able to power a 100-watt light bulb for 91 days per person, and then 100 days, then 200. They won’t care what energy sources this electricity originates from; they just care that the quality of life, or energy consumption per capita, is increasing. This is a problem with the entire global transition narrative. Every single nation will do it at its own pace, but some aren’t in the position to progress at all and improve quality of life. We saw in Somalia the quality of life isn’t advancing, it’s stagnating or falling. These underdeveloped nations need help if this transition is to occur on a global scale, but as this forecast shows, at the current pace even the most advanced nations aren’t getting there by 2050.
To flashback to my earlier question, where is the United States heading? It’s heading to a cleaner and more diverse energy portfolio, but not at the pace it wants or needs to.
Note: For those interested, the forecast built within Excel uses linear regression. This source explains it well. Also, the forecast is intended to demonstrate the current pace of the energy transition in the United States. Don’t take the figures as anything more than that. The forecast specifically takes the current trend and extrapolates it further. It doesn’t account for unforeseen changes, of which there could be many.
Concluding Remarks
The United States is diversifying its energy portfolio. Renewables are on the rise, and a recent change in stance towards nuclear has been a welcomed tailwind for the United States and its future energy security. Still, in a world where globalization isn’t increasing, the supply of energy is important.
Next week, I’ll finish this series by exploring energy trade involving the United States, and any potential lessons India could learn from the current position of the US. I’ll also touch on the role energy will play in the current geopolitical world we live in.
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