2016–17 Premier League: Armchair Predicts

The Top Four

Serge: They say you can’t buy stability but Sheikh Mansour and the Glazer brothers are here to argue that point with you, and by argue I mean throw non-sequential bills at you until you stop talking and just accept your fate. Both teams spent over 140mil this off-season to stabilize their teams. If I had to predict the top four as it stands, I would say we will see a return to regularity. Both Manchester Clubs are in, City didn’t slip out last year and United purchased Zlatan and the most Patrick Viera player since Patrick Viera not named Yaya Toure. They also have the two of soccer’s most esteemed grand sorcerers at the helm. If nothing else, I want the title to come down to a Mourinho vs Pep match-up because the world needs it.

It’s hard for me to see Chelsea breaking back into the top 4, but Conte took an average Italy team (from the midfield and up; their defence is impeccable and my number one choices of contractors if I ever decide to build a wall) deep into the Euros. However, Tottenham will have had another year to gel and adding Victor Wanyama reinforces their already stingy defence and makes their counter attack deadlier than before. Arsenal are in the top 4 mostly because water is wet, the sun is shining and it rains in England 9 months out of the year. They won’t challenge, they won’t fall flat, but their fans will once again discuss the economics of football as they flame out towards their “top 4 trophy.”

Cam: I also think that we’ll see a return to form for both Manchester clubs this year, though the question of which one is better equipped to take the title is a bit more difficult: City’s squad is significantly deeper and more dynamic, even if Manchester United have the most complete midfielder in soccer, but Pep’s savant-level tactics may take longer to click at a team that doesn’t benefit from an established core of youth academy graduates — something that both Barcelona (Messi, Xavi, Iniesta, Valdes, Puyol, Pique, Pedro, Busquets, Bojan) and Bayern Munich (Muller, Lahm, Schweinsteiger, Kroos) had when Guardiola arrived but that Manchester City lacks. I think both Manchester teams will finish well ahead of their competition, but I ultimately think United will take it — Mourinho’s tactics are more intuitive, his knowledge of the Premier League more well-established, and his squad has fewer outlying pieces to fit together.

Third place will go to Arsenal, simply because their squad continues to be extremely talented and they somehow always manage to both make top 4 and finish ahead of Tottenham. Fourth will go to one of Tottenham, Chelsea, or Leicester, depending on 1) how healthy Tottenham are, 2) how quickly Conte can utilize his tactical ingenuity to make Chelsea into a not-dumpster-fire again, 3) whether Leicester’s replacement pieces can sustain the magic now that N’golo Kante is gone.

Filling out Europe

Serge: I think mid-table will be significantly more interesting this year than the top. Leicester made the top fun, but they don’t have neither the depth nor the sustainability to do it again. I could be wrong, I kind of want to be wrong, but statistically speaking I’m probably not. Unlike Italian, German, Spanish and French Leagues, the EPL is the only bastion of intrigue left on the European continent when it comes to futbol. There are plenty of mid-table teams on the rise with young and exciting talents.

Some of the best moments of last year came courtesy of Bojan, Lukaku and the French ballet dancer turned soccer player turned the dark overlord of the free kick Dimitry Payet. I think the race for Europa League is even more exciting this year and if I would want to go on a limb and call out a surprise club that may break into the top 4? West Ham.

Liverpool is also not to be counted out due to the fact that Jürgen Klopp is basically as close as we will come to a mad scientist. For years he has been able to mount at least a pretence of a competition for Bayern Munich in Germany and now he enters a league with a more level playing field for his first full year in charge. What’s exciting however, is that all of the teams looking to elevate themselves into the upper echelon, ALL play exciting football.

I do have to end on predicting the end to Southampton’s miracle run of three years. They lost their manager, they lost their best attacking and midfield player. There is still talent here, but the adjustment period from what worked so well to something new will be a rude awakening, especially with other clubs gnawing at their heels and Liverpool and Chelsea looking to go back to the glory days.

Cam: The fight for Europa League places can go one of two ways: first, Chelsea and Liverpool could regain the form that they’ve had for years and reassert their place in the top echelon of English football, while Leicester’s magic runs out, and we see the traditional heavyweights take 5th and 6th in the Europa League simply by virtue of someone having to take those spots because of how good the top is. The other possibility is that Chelsea struggle to adapt to Conte’s system (or Abramovich fires Conte. I’m setting the over/under at 200 days), Liverpool struggle because God hates them (and because nothing gives me more joy than watching Liverpool fans be frustrated), and the fight for 5th through 7th turns into an all-out Battle Royale involving West Ham, Everton, Liverpool, Chelsea, Leicester, and Stoke. In the interest of keeping predictions more fun, I’m going for Chelsea 5th, Leicester 6th, Liverpool or West Ham 7th.

I’d also like to note my objection to your assertion that the other leagues are boring in their mid-table fights. Spain’s battles for 4th and 7th are downright bloodbaths (even if there’s a big gap between 3–4 and 6–7), Serie A was one of the most consistently interesting leagues last year, and Germany sees a different squad make the leap to the Champions League every year — not to mention Dortmund and Bayer play some of the most manic, intense football ever produced by a non-Bielsa team. It’s commonplace to hate on anything other than “the best league in the world”, but it’s patently incorrect.

Cannon Fodder

Serge: The bottom half of the table is often a revolving door of teams going back and forth between the Championship with the occasional success story often being the deviation from the norm. Staying one to two years is an achievement before having to go back to reality and catch your breath. Neither Burnley or Bournemouth have done enough this summer to demonstrate that they will be able to stay up in the EPL. Bournemouth had a solid run last year to stay up, but stalled out towards the end just as clubs were figuring out how to handle them.

If I had to make a prediction for the third team, the bottom is about to fall out on West Brom. After investing in good public transportation infrastructure under Pulis the time is now. Plus, as an Arsenal fan I quite enjoy seeing bad things happen to Tony Pulis. The point here is that he doesn’t have the personnel to swim against the attacking football flow of the modern EPL like Mourinho does and more often than not this team will get opened up. The attacking talent just isn’t there to close the door enough to stay in the division.

Cam: Hull City, Bournemouth, and West Brom. Mind you, I thought Leicester were contenders for relegation last year so one of these teams is making the European places.

The Predictions

All in all we’re in for an exciting season if we can get past the early panic. City will take a while to adjust to Pep’s tactics and constant need to to alter around with the formula like some sort of savant, but at this point he is basically playing against himself and maybe the house so they’ll be fine, plus he has Yaya Toure back. Mourinho is a more dire position given his lack of success last year. He is inheriting one of the most storied clubs that has been in search for stability. Jose is about as good for stability as a sudden shift in tectonic plates, but he has the personality to hold a club together. The problem is, so do Pogba and Zlatan. I have been waiting for this moment in locker room volatility since Latrell Sprewell.

Don’t be surprised if Tottenham jumps to an early lead (as Mauricio Pochettino hands out crossfit flyers in the stands) and then fights hard to keep it with other teams in the rearview. We are living at the renaissance of the EPL when a world rated player came to the league instead of leaving it for greener pastures. There are at least 7 teams capable of a top 4 finish and at least 10 with aspirations of Europe. The likes of Payet and Lukaku are staring down podium seasons for their final transfers and others like Fabregas and Rooney are looking to prove that they still have the star appeal in a league rapidly changing.

Serge — Title Winner: Man United || Top Scorer: Sergio Aguero || Best player: Paul Pogba || Biggest drop-off: Southampton || Top Assists: Christian Eriksen

Cam — Title Winner: Man United || Top Scorer: Alexis Sanchez || Best Player: Paul Pogba || Biggest drop-off: Leicester || Top Assists: Kevin de Bruyne