
The one huge benefit of this year’s draw is that Arsenal finally get to avoid Bayern Munich and Barcelona in Europe, which is great news for all Gunner fans, ya know! Looking at the overall draw, there are some very weak spots in the 2nd half of it over the first (see Cam’s article), with Liverpool and Monaco notably catching a break instead of having to slug it out against the rest of the heavy hitters. I can also see why Tottenham fans would want to fight anyone from Liverpool this afternoon given how much better they were last year and how shitty of a hand they were dealt this draw.
Still, there are some interesting matches and nothing really is set in stone, well, except for Real Madrid winning their group. Real Madrid is winning their group.
Group E

Spartak Moscow // Sevilla // Liverpool // Maribor
Serge: You know when you’re a kid and you go to the amusement park and yet you’re not allowed on any of the adult rides so you have to go to the “kiddie” section of the park to ride the abridged versions? Welcome to Groups E and H of this year’s Champion’s league. While there are some absolutely brutal draws this year, this is also another group that can make an argument that we need to review the seeding process for UCL. Imagine being Liverpool, like the last team to make it out of England and the worst out of five and running away with literally the best possible draw for your trouble?
There is always at least one or two teams in Pot 1 that are only there based off domestic championships. This time around Spartak Moscow is one of them. No team was looking at Pot 1 and saying “please anyone but Spartak.” They were probably spreading chicken bones on the floor praying for the club from the Russian capital. While Liverpool is still in limbo over potential departure of Philippe Coutinho, they are strong enough, as their playoff run showed, to make it out of this group. Sevilla could be a surprise in for first as they have done well to improve their squad this summer with the likes of Luis Muriel up front and Nolito and Ever Banega down the middle. Simon Kjaer should be a force at the back, one of the most underrated European defenders due to playing in Turkey and Jesus Navas may have a game or two left in the tank. They’re the only team that can challenge the Reds for top of group and they will.
Moving On: 1. Sevilla // 2. Liverpool
On to Europa: Spartak Moscow
Out: Maribor
Cameron: We’re in agreement here. Sevilla are a genuinely excellent team — you don’t win three straight Europa League titles without being good. But they’re also adapting to yet another raft of changes, with coach Jorge Sampaoli having departed for the Argentina job over the summer. They finally have Navas back, and I think he’ll transform into the player he once was there — a speedy winger who terrorizes opposing defenses and stretches the pitch halfway to Cape Town. Liverpool have a lot of excellent players, but their defense has remained a persistent problem under Klopp and it’s unclear to me that it’s going to improve at all.
Moving On: 1. Sevilla // 2. Liverpool
On to Europa: Spartak Moscow
Group F

Shakhtar Donetsk // Manchester City // Napoli // Feyenoord
Okay, I was a little unfair to Spartak Moscow, Shakhtar Donetsk was another team that is an easy target from Pot 1. The Ukrainian League has fallen quite a bit since the days of Dynamo Kiev racing past Barcelona to near UCL success. On the other hand, if Manchester City and Napoli matches don’t produce at least 15 goals over two meetings I will be sorely disappointed. Both teams play an attractive style of football that favours offensive fluidity and breaking through the wings before inverting the play inside. It’s going to be fast, focused and not at all defensively minded. It’s like if the Golden State Warriors played the Golden State Warriors.
Napoli did very little in the transfer market to break up what was a very strong side last year. Hamsik will still be the focal point of their attack, but the emergence of Insigne last year as a perennial threat will bolster their attack to test Manchester City’s cornucopia of new fullbacks. City on the other hand will most likely deploy Danilo on the more dangerous flank (Insigne). It will be interesting because City improved areas of the field that Napoli is the strongest in. Pep’s core mission in England is to win in Europe and his side is built better for this style of play than for the slug of the EPL, expect them to dominate this group, Napoli or not.
The fight for third is tighter than you may think as well, with Shakhtar now far removed from their Europa League success. Their status as European Football’s most expensive Brazilian Youngster Day Care is still somewhat strong however with 8 Brazilians on the roster, but having to play across Ukraine and not having Donbass Arena as a sure fortress has hurt them at times. They should still see off Feyenoord for the Europa League spot.
Moving On: 1. Manchester City // 2. Napoli
On to Europa: Shakhtar
Out: Feyenoord
Cam: we again agree on 1st and 2nd. City-Napoli will be phenomenally fun, with both managers religiously committed to playing attacking football and sporting the players to do it — I thought about the prospect of Marik Hamsik versus Kevin De Bruyne this morning and briefly slipped into a coma. City should be considered favorites given their overwhelming depth of talent, with the caveat that Napoli is a ferociously hard away tie and Pep still has several elements of City’s philosophy and style to sort out — for all the fullbacks they bought this summer there are still questions around how exactly to put the whole thing together (witness Everton’s first goal last Monday).
Where I disagree with you is in your assessment of third place. The top of the Dutch League has made a comeback recently, and this Feyenoord side is very,very good — defensively solid (unlike most Dutch teams) and I think good enough to pip Donetsk to third. They don’t boast as many big names as Dutch football once did, but they play a very coherent, robust philosophy under Giovanni Van Bronckhorst, and in the Champions League,having a clear idea about what you are as a team can often be enough.
Moving On: 1. Manchester City // 2. Napoli
On to Europa: Feyenoord
Group G

Monaco // Porto // Besiktas // Leipzig
On the surface this is another easy group with no easy killers to be found throughout. Monaco will be depleted by losing a number of players, and if rumours are true, Mbappe as well. They managed to hold off Arsenal at the gate for Thomas Lemar and still have most of their pivotal squad returning for the year, but they are not a class above. Last year, they took teams by surprise by their stingy defensive style and ability to turn defense into attack at breakneck speeds, but Mbappe, Silva and Bakayoko were two integral parts of that. Teams are prepared for them tactically.
Even so, the rest of the teams are second tier at best when it comes to European football and one can argue that Monaco was given the path of least resistance, but also they are one of the smaller teams out of Pot 1 to begin with. I can see Leipzig as being a huge surprise as they were in Germany. They strengthened their squad in key areas and have managed to at least scare Bayern Munich last year in the Bundesliga (even though we all really knew). They’re also a virtual unknown quantity for other clubs in Europe. They play a simplistic 4–4–2, which is rare in top clubs, but it functions almost as a 4–2–2–2 as the wingers take on an inverted role. This concentration allows them to press high up the pitch and is perfectly suited for killing off teams that are focused on breaking into attack by winning the ball back in high press and quickly firing it through the holes. They might actually be Monaco’s antidote in this match up.
Moving On: 1. Monaco // 2. RB Leipzig
On to Europa: Porto
Out: Besiktas
Cam: I really don’t have a great deal to add on this group — you’ve summed it up pretty well above. I do think there’s a good chance Leipzig tops the group — Bakayoko was so critical to their rapid playing style last season, and losing Mbappe (should they do so) this late in the transfer season would be a disaster they’d have little time to recover from. For Monaco, the next week is crucial to determining how their European season goes.
Moving On: 1. Monaco // 2. RB Leipzig
On to Europa: Porto
Group H

Real Madrid // Borussia Dortmund // Tottenham // Apoel Nicosia
Excuse me for a second.
Imagine being one of the top and most consistent teams in one of the world’s most competitive leagues. Imagine being in the conversation for the title for three years straight. Imagine finishing second in a country that produced five participants this year. And then imagine drawing Real Madrid and Borussia Dortmund in your Group stage. I don’t feel bad for Apoel, they knew they were screwed either way. To be fair, I also don’t feel bad for Tottenham, I’m an Arsenal fan, but this is unfortunate.
Real Madrid is a different class of team. They are consistently great and even if they lose Ronaldo, which happens to be the most preposterous rumour of the off-season, they are built from the middle out so as long as Kroos/Modric/Casemiro are kicking this team is the favourite to win everything. And I mean EVERYTHING.
Borussia on the other hand has just lost one of their brightest young players, but they should be fine as a convoy full of deutschmarks is about to be dropped into their driveway with a week to spend. They are now in the same position that they extorted Barcelona into, teams know they have cash and will hold out, but even without major spendings they have enough offensive talent to compete, including U.S. wonderkid Christian Pulisic, who will make you believe in God again. Luckily, they also held out from letting Bayern poach their best player. If Tottenham are to unseed anyone from this group it would be Borussia, who under Tunchel have been slightly erratic and complacent in defending, which may also be a residue of the Klopp era. Tottenham are built to press high and hard to win the ball as high up as possible to relieve their defense and unleash Harry Kane. Unfortunately, their tactics are reliant on high level of fitness and they run a notoriously thin and compact squad. Borussia’s break-neck pace can cause multiple complications if Pochettino doesn’t manage to rest enough players coming of gruelling matches in England. Also, they need to win at Wembley.
Pour one out for Apoel.
Moving On: 1. Real Madrid (not even close either) // 2. Tottenham (at the price of EPL)
On to Europa: Borussia Dortmund
Out: Apoel Nicosia
Cam: Now this is a Group of Death (and APOEL). It isn’t quite Real-Dortmund-City-Ajax from 2012–13, but there are some truly phenomenal ties in here. Real Madrid remain the obvious frontrunners — they’re champions and the best team on the continent by a significant margin. While they won’t coast by any means, I also don’t think they’re in danger of dropping the group.
The fight for second is where this gets interesting. You’ve picked Tottenham, but I honestly think Dortmund have a better chance of making it out of the Group Stage. Tottenham struggled last season in the Champion’s League, and it’s unclear to me that their team has gotten either more experienced or better in the interim. Dortmund, meanwhile, still boast players who’ve gone deep in the Champion’s League — even with the loss of Dembele to Barcelona on Thursday afternoon. They’ll also pour everything they have into the Champion’s League, which isn’t a luxury that Spurs have given the competitiveness of the top four in the Premier League this season. I think Dortmund take 2nd, Spurs go to the Europa League.
Moving On: 1. Real Madrid || Borussia Dortmund
On to Europa: Tottenham Hotspur

