EPL Preview: Ten Season predictions you didn’t ask for
How many articles have you read predicting the outline of the top 4 with both mathematical and anecdotal evidence to back up said predictions — ours included? What’s the over/under on the amount of times you read letters p-o-g-b-a this week arranged exclusively in that order? Soccer (or football if you drink tea instead of coffee and believe scones are superior to bagels) cognoscenti have dissected, dismantled and disassembled (and then put back together) every team over the last 2 weeks. So we kind of have a consensus top four, top player, top transfer, etc. What we don’t have is the answers to some of life’s more important questions.
1. Most “I can’t believe he didn’t score that” chances
Serge: This one has to go by the numbers and I think we’re going to see it this year from Harry Kane. The man is clinical and Tottenham is built around syphoning passes into his feet and letting him do his magic, but the magic may run out. Tottenham was running on fumes based off their steroid infused gun-ho pressure style. This year, running in Champion’s League and at home Spurs will need to find some sort of magic and I just don’t think good, ole ‘Arry can maintain the astronomical pace he’s displayed up to now. Call me crazy. Actually, just call me an Arsenal fan.
Cam: I have a sneaking suspicion that this one is going to go to Diego Costa, who simply has not looked the same since his first season at Chelsea: he failed to make Spain’s Euro 2016 squad, was positively dreadful last season, and has proven an extremely difficult player to fit into most tactical systems that aren’t just Diego Simeone screaming at people (see: World Cup, 2014, Spain).
2. Do Arsenal or Chelsea fans become more disillusioned faster?
Serge: I want to say Arsenal because we’re generally the loudest on social media, spreading our tales far and wide to anyone who is foolish enough to land an ear, but we all know it’s Chelsea. The thing about being an Arsenal fan is like binge-watching any prime-time sitcom. You have meticulously studied and memorize all the beats and tropes so all that’s left is to watch it unfold and feint surprise when they happen. Abramovich, the number one Chelsea fact and absolutely non-benevolent benefactor has 0 patience. He fired Jose Mourinho, then hired him again then fired him again. He wants results and he wants them now with his club. And so do his fans. The moment Conte hits even a little bit of a snag, the writing on the wall will start to materialize faster than you can say “we’re going to build a f****ng wall”.
Cam: Given that Alexis Sanchez took 83% of the vote in a Twitter Brexit poll in May 2016, I think we’ll hear the most disgruntlement from Arsenal fans by sheer volume, but I also think the GDP (Gross Disillusionment Product) Per Capita will be far higher amongst Chelsea fans, who have a unique ability to turn cynical the moment that a manager starts to slip up (more on that in Question 9).
3. Longest distance Pogba/Zlatan will score from (and who of the two).
Serge: Egos are fun. Sports egos are the absolute form of modern day entertainment melted down, vaporized and served to you as a highly potent inhalant. Put three of them together and then try not to overdose is basically what Manchester United are going for this season. I think 40ft is a safe bet, I think Pogba is a safe bet. As much as Ibra likes to come in deep to receive the ball, he is getting older and Mourinho favours tactical organization more than he does his own daughter. Ibra will sit up, and Pogba will sit back. At which point the frustration will boil over into a walloping spike at the ball from 40ft out and through the net and the stadium and into the atmosphere to be lost somewhere in space circling the dark planet earth.
Cam: Zlatan, 45 yard volley.
4. Odds of a Wenger vs. Mourinho sideline fight
Serge: Very high. Le Professeur is known to be easily vexed. He’s like the teacher who constantly handed out detentions for even the slightest truancy. Jose Mourinho is known to be quite vexing. It comes from the fact that he never really directly says what he means, instead he employs a Sandra Bullock led PR team inside his skull that dispenses the most underhanded shade this side of Twitter and Serena Williams. It’s also Wenger’s (rumoured) last year. Think back to your last moments at your job, or better yet to David Stern’s last year as NBA commissioner, or President Obama’s current victory lap through the media. The fountain of f**ks is all dry, not a drop left. The better guess is it going to be a left hook or a right uppercut.
Cam: Not as high as the odds of a return of the epic Mourinho-Guardiola feud that consumed literally the entirety of Spanish media for two seasons from 2010–12. Despite having worked together when Louis Van Gaal was coach of Barcelona in the late 1990s (Mourinho as assistant coach, Guardiola as club captain), they have a unique ability to get under each other’s skin: Mourinho disdain’s Pep’s purism and philosophized sanctimony about the evils of defensive, pragmatic football, and Guardiola was ultimately worn down by two years of Mourinho’s psychological warfare and #mindgames to the point where he genuinely seemed to stop enjoying football in 2012. They’re now in the same city. At two clubs who spent like drunk Russian oligarchs on a stag weekend in Monaco. Expect fireworks.
5. Next player to get caught smoking in public
Serge: Dele Alli. I just don’t like him. He’s too smug. Next question.
Cam: It’ll be Jack Wilshere. It’s always Jack Wilshere.
6. The Dimitry Payet “where the hell did this come from” Award Recipient
Serge: I don’t think anything can replicate the great French free kick destroying sensation of 2015/16. Ramadan Sobhi is coming over from Egypt so it’s a fair prediction that you didn’t quite know who he was until you Goggled him roughly 20 seconds ago. The kid can play and I think he’s unlikely to leave Stoke on loan this season. He is the perfect signing in their “either get young kids with raw potential or get young kids whose raw potential has been shadowed due to them being marooned on a contender’s bench” transfer strategy. Sobhi will provide depth on either wing and will be by far the most electrifying new player you didn’t know you loved watching this season (don’t quote me on that, or do, whatever, I’m not your mother).
Cam: Leroy Sané. He’s 20, Manchester City spent a small fortune to pry him from Schalke. He’s good enough to have made the Germany squad for Euro 2016. By all accounts, he’s dynamic and versatile and fast and capable of playing about four different roles on the left wing. He could well be a more attack-minded Dani Alves for Guardiola’s team. Should be fun.
7. The veteran that finally drops off your radar forever
Serge: I want to say John Terry. I really really want to say John Terry. He is basically is what would happen if God wrote a James Bond villain, decided he was too devilish for 007 and pumped him right in the middle of the Premier League. Those who hate John Terry cite that he is smug, arrogant, absolutely disrespectful to others AND his own teammates. I don’t generally want bad things to happen to people… Unless they are John Terry. Unfortunately, the writing is on the wall for Per Mertesacker. The game is getting faster, the German is getting slower the more injuries he collects. He is still a very intelligent player, but he has nothing left and his reading of the game is no longer enough to compensate for lack of pace. This latest injury and the rumoured signing of Shkodran Mustafi could be the final fade in Per’s career as a Gunner. Still, I really just want to say John Terry. F**k it, I’m saying John Terry!
8. Most “I can’t believe this is humanly possible” moments
Serge: Sometimes these happen when a player simply bends time, space, physics and digital restrains of the Matrix to create magic. There was a lot of that from Payet last year. Sometimes it’s just having the ball on a string and orchestrating the team like some sort of musical prodigy but in a sport. There was a lot of that from Kevin De Bruyne. Sometimes it’s just sheer physical feats. Hey there Alexis. This one is easy this year. It’s Paul Pogba. His body build combined with his skill set basically make him the LeBron James of the game. Remember that feeling you had when LeBron James put on a jetpack and wiped Andre Iguodala’s lay-up from existence and then almost immediately almost ended the career and life of a living and breathing Draymond Green with a vicious dunk attempt that generally ends with a fistfight if attempted at a YMCA? I am not sure what a soccer has to do to replicate that feeling, but I am sure we are about to find out with Pogba this year.
Cam: Manchester City’s tactics. In preseason alone, Pep Guardiola has fielded lineups that have played with three defenders, two defenders, wingbacks, and Gael Clichy as a defensive midfielder. Given the sheer volume of talent at his disposal, we are going to see some truly intricate tactical setups from Pep this season — the prospect of De Bruyne and Gundogen combining with Sergio Aguero and Yaya Toure is mouth-watering, and I anticipate a number of times in the next ten months where I sit down to write about Manchester City’s tactics, get stumped, and give up because it’s like trying to decipher Mayan writing without one of the five codices that the Spanish Inquisition didn’t burn.
9: Over/Under on first “Antonio Conte is facing the sack” story
Serge: 50. Just under two months. Abramovich fired Mourinho. Twice. He has no patience for managers and if Conte hits a misstep ONCE we’re in for a full season of these stories.
Cam: I’m setting this one at 90 days. If they’re at all struggling in November, Abramovich will start to gleefully sharpen that axe.
10: Is this the year an English team does well in the Europa League?
Serge: No. England generally doesn’t do well in Europe, less so in Europa League. I think there is a skewed perception of the competition, especially in side by side comparison with the more prestigious Champion’s League. The only time English teams kick into high gear is when they need that Europa League Trophy to qualify for Champion’s League and/or embarrass their rival who is about to come in fourth but miss out on that 4th CL spot. Secondary factor is definitely the breadth of the English schedule, multiple domestic competitions and an absence of a Christmas break that other teams benefit from. There just isn’t enough time to care for “second rate” competitions.
Cam: The English attitude towards UEFA’s second tier competition has always baffled me. Sure, the Thursday night games make travel times bad for weekend matches in the Premier League, but the notion that it’s a worthless competition is filled with such snobbery and a misunderstanding of how fandom works: Fulham fans will remember their 2009–10 run to the final (where there were defeated by the reality that Atletico Madrid had Sergio Aguero and Peak Diego Forlan and Fulham did not) far more than they would have remembered finishing 9th rather than 10th. This year also has some genuine heavy hitters in the Europa League — Manchester United’s failure to finish in the top four means it could (hypothetically) be graced with The Zlatan and Paul Pogba’s glorious presence. But they’re likely to be so single-minded about returning to the Champion’s League that Thursday nights will be an opportunity to rest players.
So, short version: no.
