NBA Free Agency Pandemonium: Weekend Round Up

Did you ever watch Duck Tales as a kid? Remember watching Scrooge McDuck deep dive into a pool filled with coins? As a an adult, all I can think about that this is a sure way to get a concussion, as a kid? As a kid I wanted nothing more than to bathe in solid gold, all Smaug like. Well, my dream is Kent Bazemore’s reality. The NBA’s best (and only) Dap Master is now making somewhere around $18mil a year. Meanwhile, a stand-in for Ivan Drago (should they ever make that Rocky remake) has just penned a $64mil/4year contract with the Lakers after averaging 6.3 points and 4.4 rebounds per game in 2015/16. This is the new normal. Get used to it.

Teams aren’t waiting to do their business

Let’s get the obvious out of the way first, if only because we’ve been talking about this for, oh I don’t know, two years or so. The new cap jump is bonkers. It’s ba.period.na.period.na.period.s.fullstop. It is a 34% percent jump in cap space and it’s unprecedented. Historically, there has not been a change like this since this new time called forever. Naturally not only the money available, but the process in which the league doles out that money has been slightly jarring at the least (at the most the process got taken through a would chopper, burned and then sprinkled over a summer meadow).

The number one change is that teams in the running for a marquee free agent (let’s just say it, it’s you Kevin) are not waiting to make other pieces of business. This is the reality where you can still ink Al Horford to a lot of money and remain in the running for KD (even though you lose out on him in the long run). In the past, if you had a chance at a transcending talent, you kind of took a back seat on any and all negotiations until you wrapped that one up, not so now. With all of this cash floating around, anyone with fringe star value not named KD was off the board early. Whiteside, DeRozan and Conley resigned quickly and Horford got out of Atlanta on the first train. This makes free-agency more proactive on day one as teams now also have to be worried about losing out on role players not just the superstar. Almost all of the league has money to throw around and they’re not scared to use it.

2017/18 Lockout is a real thing

If you want to hear my initial thoughts on Kevin Durant and what it means for all the parties involved, you can do so here. I do want to reiterate however that more than anything else, the Decision 2.0 signals and incoming lockout.

As of right now, we have 28 pissed off GMs/Owners and one Marc Cuban staring at Golden State and asking themselves “how did we let this happen?” This is how you alienate the league while also take advantage of the system that now seems archaic. Remember that time when we had a lockout specifically to prevent this from happening? Yeah, that worked. If you think this is about unity for the GMs now, think again. We’re one Joe Lacob “light years ahead” tirade away from basically a new league with 29 teams in it.

While super-teams are great for the casual fan who just wants to watch 2k-like action unfold, a lot of people are displeased with how inefficient the current cap system is at preventing these super teams from happening. Since the lock-out we’ve had the Heat, the Lakers (arguably, although that never panned out any better than a tire fire) and now the Warriors. The system is clearly broken. Expect there to be a big push for one of two things: A) the hard cap or B) increasing max salary value as a %s of the existing cap so you can’t just stack 4 stars on top of one another without major consequences and/or fielding 11 pre-schoolers around them (for the record, I still think this GSW team can beat a few teams in this league with if they fielded their big 4 and the cast of say Air Bud or Like Mike at their current age).

The fact is both GSW and Durant just gamed the system. GSW made one of the best historical teams even better and we don’t even know by how much, since this kind of thing is unprecedented. Durant on the other hand, took a 1+1 to make extra money, with the option to opt out next year and make EVEN more money. He took a more favorably structured deal that upsets the balance of the league WITHOUT really missing out much financially. The point of the current CBA was to give the team like the Thunder an inherent advantage money-wise when it came to negotiations. The ability to grab a 1+1 negates that fail safes and brings us to the situation where Durant can sign for even MORE money next year. LeBron can basically ink new one years every year as the cap rises. You can’t blame either, it’s smart business, but damn right the owners are going to address this.

It’s time to rethink the way we evaluate contracts

There’s baseball money in basketball now.

Never has there been a better time to be a NBA free agent than now. The NBA cap has bloated, absorbing the new TV deal and let’s not forget, it will balloon even more next year. This means teams have enough money to sign multiple impact players and also overpay everyone in sight because otherwise “someone else will.” This sounds like the reasoning a third-grader makes to his mom to which she usually says “if everyone else jumped off a bridge, would you?” Well, NBA franchises would. There’s money everywhere.

As we watch pandemonium unfold in the League, maybe it’s time to think of contracts as percentages of the cap, as we do with max deals. With the 34% spike, it’s only natural players would expect a raise too, especially with the lockout looming. Now is the time to negotiate the best terms you can get and ride it out. With the new cap at $94mil, Bazemore’s contract is about 19% of the cap hold (Max is 30/35% against cap). While ridiculous, it’s less jarring than the 25% hold it would have been against 2015 cap of $70mil. Guys with tangible basketball talent (3 and D in Kent’s case) will always be in demand, they’re just raising their price tags in the face of the new economy of the sport.

That being said, we should also consider when the other shoe will drop. While the new TV deal is fine and dandy, statistically less and less people are getting cable, and with services like League Pass and other streaming options, the TV deal might not mean shit down the road when it’s time to renegotiate. Contracts that are reasonable now might be dead weight in 4–5 years. Until that time however, players will get paid in baseball numbers and we should work to get shock out of our system.

Entering the FA period with a plan…

There are two types of teams in the FA, those who put all of their eggs in one basket and those who came prepared to move around the shifting landscape and adjust on the fly. The Hawks started their renovating project before July 1st by shifting Teague and handing the keys to Schroeder. They quickly signed Dwight Howard to a fairly reasonable deal as a contingency for Horford leaving and were overall prepared for change. This changes their dynamic a bit as Howard isn’t quite adept at PnR defence away from the basket as Horford, and he doesn’t have the midrange game to help Hawks space the floor, but he will be of use in the Schroder — Howard PnR game. Always a devastating roll man, Dwight can slot into a slightly adjusted version of the offensive sets the birds run and making it tick. He also provides the rim protection that few NBA centers can offer in this day and age.

Pacers put together a few quick moves before the FA period and the draft to take a run in the East for the coming in second to the Cleveland Cavaliers title next seasons. While not the sexiest destination, Indiana has an idea on how to get to where they’re going through trades.Posting a positive win percentage as well as a top 4 finish in the conference can sway future free agents to consider Naptown as a place to be next year when there’s even more money to toss around.

Lakers are also making weirdly adequate NBA decisions. Sure, they locked up two vets on multi-million and multi-year deals, but the personnel actually makes sense. The market appeal is no longer a huge play for most players who care more about winning, and being unable to even score meetings with marquee free agents forces you to try your efforts elsewhere. With a young core of Julius Randle, D’Angelo Russell, Brandon Ingram (all on their rookie scale) and a newly resigned Jordan Clarkson LA has a young core that can be developed into a strong contender. While arguably overpaying, they picked up a centre who played a pivotal role in the 2014/15 Cavs’ finals run and can be a solid roll man for both Russell and Clarkson as well as a veteran swing man to handle defensive assignments and stabilize the locker room in Luol Deng. These aren’t your Snapchat gate Lakers and they may be looking to play actual basketball this year.

… is better than doing so without one, but…

I have no idea what the Magic are doing. They traded the house for Serge Ibaka to be their defensive presence, then they went out and signed Bismack Biyombo to do the exact same thing for $70mil over the next four years minus any significant offensive contributions. They then also signed Jeff Green to clog up their already crowded front court rotation and possibly shift Aaron Gordon out of important development minutes. They also gave DJ Augustin some money for some reason. A year ago this team had a young core of Payton, Oladipo, Harris, Gordon and Vucevic and at least a semblance of a roadmap, this year the team is a mess under pressure of getting results now.

The Magic may just be the cautionary tale of a rebuild by the numbers. While they kept making all of the right moves, the team failed to bring in a coach who could grow and nurture young talent moving forward. The talent made sense, the schemes didn’t. Now they need to win, or at least make the playoffs with both Green and Ibaka off contract next year they need to prove to these players it’s worth sticking around Orlando, and not just for Disneyland.

… it’s still better than being the Knicks

If you thought the 2011 Eastern All-Stars were, as the kids would say — lit, then this New York team is for you. Phil Jackson decided to use his Kristaps good will to trade for Derrick Rose and his extensive suit collection as well as sign a deteriorating Joakim Noah. He will continue to run the system that Carmelo hates in the triangle and now do so with one of the point guards least suited to be running it. I have no idea what the Knicks are doing, but I do enjoy a good tire fire so I’m propping them up on my League Pass rankings.

There are still bargain deals to be made

Call me biased but I think the Wizards inking Andrew Nicholson to a $26mil/4year deal with a player option on the last year is a smart piece of business. In the age where the NBA salary is about as volatile as Chernobyl’s core they got a savvy post player who can stretch the floor at the 4 and has proven to be in the 14 and 5 stat range when given the time of day. With a defensive centre (Gortat/Mahimi) and a smart point guard (Wall) Nicholson is a great fit for a basement price (plus I get to go to DC to visit him, so win-win for everyone involved).

Aaron Afflalo signing is also financially good, as much as that term can apply to the Kings for what he brings in the current salary landscape. It won’t save the disaster unfolding in Sacramento, but they’re at least pretending to address their needs after drafting an unproven prospect at a position they’re already stockpiled on. Eric Gordon to the Rockets can prove to be a solid deal, provided they figure out how to play both him and Harden on the floor without giving up like 200 points per game (they also have Ryan Anderson so maybe 250).

Does Dallas have a plan?

When your offseason history reads like the oral collapse of the USSR, you know you need to make a splash in Free Agency. On the heels of Dirk opting out, Chandler Parsons taking his talents and company card to the strip clubs of Memphis and missing out on both Whiteside and Howard, the Mavs needed a plan. I am not entirely sure if they still have one, but giving Harrison Barnes a max could be a start.

For one, let’s applaud Harrison Barnes’ agent who turned the suicide note that his client’s stats were in the Finals into a max deal. Barnes is just the athletic, sharpshooting (presumably) wing with the ability to play D across the board. He will have the keys to the offence right away and there are few better places to be as a developing player than with the number two coach (and number one warlock) in the NBA in Rick Carlisle. The rest of the roster is still desolate, especially if Dirk is testing the waters, but at least there is a contingency plan in pay and I can delay my #FreeCarlisle movement.

East is getting interesting

Indiana was the first to snuff out the “we can probably get second in the East with a few minor updates” narratives. Don’t get me wrong, it’s still Cavs territory and the rest are just playing for cookie points, but playoff revenue is good and team success could be beneficial to signing further free-agents in the future.

Boston probably came out most improved nailing down Horford. They have an interesting young core with a marquee player in the middle who will thrive in the Stevens system. Ainge did well to turn loss of Love into a very interesting make up of players and while they’re still a roster slot away from truly competing, having a settling presence will go a long way.

Chicago is also in a weird spot where they lost Rose and Noah’s decaying corpses for some assets they also made a bunch of weird choices. While Robin Lopez’s contract is nice and Jerian Grant is an interesting piece, all of the moves are basically setting up Jimmy Butler to score all of the points. Their whole plan and potential success is entirely hinged on which version of Rajon Rondo they will get. At his best he is still a basketball savant who understands the way ball movement works, and defensively him and Butler will combine to form one of the best defensive units in the back court.

Deals I like and not so much

Like: Drummond re-inking with the Pistons for five just makes sense. It’s a tough landscape to be a traditional big in, but the dude is young and he is playing for the right coach to maximize his talents.

Don’t: DeMar resinging with the Raps makes sense, but this team peaked at it’s current roster at the moment. They need to be able to stretch the floor and play some D and this does none of this. Both DeMar and JV are touch heavy in order to be effective and neither are good passers/decision makers with the ball. The Raps won’t top their 2016 finish, but will consistently make playoffs for another 4–5 years as MLSE rakes in that revenue.

Like: Jeremy Lin to Nets and Al Jefferson to Pacers are both fairly cheap deals in the current landscape that address each teams needs. The Nets get an actual basketball player with established folklore in New York while Pacers get someone who can at least pretend to operate in the post efficiently should their offence stall out like it always does.

Don’t: Evan Turner and Chandler Parsons both got PAID. Turner, while a reddit All-Star has always struggled to match his draft valuation way back when. He might be a great fit next to Lillard and McCollum, but the money was a bit excessive. Parsons meanwhile got his max coming off injury. He hurts the Grizzlies defensively, but for a team who’s offence resembled that of a slow, methodical drudge through the wetlands, he might offer some sort of injection. Question is, is it worth the tag?

Like: Hornets re-upping with Batum and to some extent with Marvin Williams. They seemed to have stumbled onto a good formula close to the end there and need to keep building on that. Ryan Anderson brings the shooting at 4 that all D’Antoni systems need, and we all know this Rockets team isn’t playing defence so is his weakness really his weakness?

Don’t: Joakim Noah to the Knicks. I just wanted to reiterate that I feel for Knicks fans. If you burn it down, no one will judge you.