Welcome to Russellmania
Kevin Durant is gone, which means the keys to the Thunder offense belong to Russell Westbrook. Everyone needs to get out of the way.
Not many teams can say that they had two of the top 10 players of their respective era on the same roster at one point in time. Even fewer can say that they had three. Near to none can say that they let one walk for reasons of “financial flexibility.” With this statement, I hereby conclude my agreement to mention the James Harden trade in any article related or entirely removed (in fact they couldn’t be further removed if they were put in the rocket and launched into another galaxy as part of the Voyager program) basketball or otherwise also know as the Bill Simmons Accord of the “I Was Right” Basketball School of Thought. Moving on.
Anyways, this is Russell Westbrook’s team now and he is angry. He might start playing in roller skates. He might attach fireworks to his feet and blaze a fiery path in his stead every time he goes on one of those coast to coast pillage missions that ends in a rim rattling dunk. He probably won’t do any of those things but he will move with such ferocity that it will appear to the untrained eye as if he is doing them. Watching Russell Westbrook drive towards the rim feels like what I imagine our ancestors felt when they first saw a steam powered locomotive at full speed.
In both seasons where the Thunder were shortchanged some Durant playing time, Russell Westbrook basically became the catalyst for this offense, racking up stats and triple-doubles at a rate that should be alarming to normal humans. If there was ever a metaphor for strapping a team to your back and dragging it through the valley in the shadow of death, that was it. This was Russ. On any given night he attacks the rim like they’re in a verbal disagreement that de-escalated into inappropriate your momma jokes and Russell is about to deliver these hands. He doesn’t have an off switch, regardless of whether the team is up by 30 or down by 15. Russell Westbrook plays as if he needs his lungs to engulf and burn through all the oxygen in the 15 meter vicinity of his body.
If you do a statistical breakdown of Russell Westbrook without Kevin Durant in the last 8 seasons you get a bump of on average: 8 points per game, 2 rebounds, and one assist. The difference gets a little bit less dire when you factor in the later years (the 8 years outlined above include the rookie years and the Harden years, RIP Bill Simmons’ Sanity for two Harden mentions in one article). Still, it’s expected that Russ’ usage went up, in 2015, following the All-Star break and KD’s absence, he averaged a triple double (32.9 points, 10.1 rebounds, 11.1 assists — and please try not to rub your eyes into a mulch as you triple check these numbers, they’re true as per NBA.com). Without Durant, Westbrook basically became Weapon X but without necessity of human experimenting (that we know of, Kyle Singler is looking weird lately).
The difference now is that this is not simply a stop-gap. Those prior performances came out of an emergency plan, a scenario in which Durant went down and Russ simply had to steady the ship for a while. The Thunder enter this season fully expecting to lean on Russ with both Durant and Ibaka gone permanently.
While the loss of KD may be a very tough pill to eventually swallow, departure of Ibaka may actually be a blessing in disguise. Coming off his worst career season, Serge has not been quite what the Thunder expected him to become when they declined to offer Harden “superstar money” (3, someone check in on Simmons, he might be twitching out at this point). He saw decline in points per game, blocks and rebounds. All key skills for him. On top of that, he went from being a serviceable three point shooter last season (.376%) to a below average one this year (.326%). His initial value over Kanter (.476% last season) was that of a defensive stopper, but as he got exposed more and more on the help side, Ibaka’s upside dwindled, making it possible for Thunder to replace him by committee.
That committee this year will consist of Enes Kanter and the emerging social media star and my own personal starry eyed man-crush Steven Adams. Among having the distinction of being one of five NBA players I would go to war over, he has developed into an incredible complement to Westbrook and the Thunder. Adams has developed into a defensive player, rotating well around picks and in the playoffs he even proved that he can keep up with smaller guards on the outside for the necessary time it takes Thunder guards to recover. He is quick on his feet for his size and is great at cutting off passing lanes AND recovering to his man on the roll. His mental and testicular fortitude were also never under question.
Adams’ true value comes in the pick and roll as he is able to quickly establish the screen as well as roll to the basket with force. He’s not quite the shooter yet to scare teams with his versatility on the outside, but he might not have to. On the second unit, that role will undoubtedly fall to Domantas Sabonis. There are still numerous question marks over the rookie, but if he manages to retain even a 10th of his father’s talent he will be in the League for a long time. While his size and post ability are questionable given time spent against smaller competition, Sabonis can knockdown the mid-range consistently and may already be the best post passer on the Thunder. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him be the fulcrum at the elbow, the one the team siphons possessions through. On the other hand, he offers a different wrinkle to Adams on a pick and roll game. He can pop, he can roll and he is a capable passer which means that he can deliver an assist out of a collapsed rotation. There will definitely be learning pains for Sabonis, but the quicker he develops the quicker he can anchor the second unit and deputize for Adams in smaller ball line-ups. That being said, Adams will need to establish a one-two game with Russell while the other three players space the floor, which will be the important part of this offense. Kanter fits right in, but where do we get the other shooters?
Having Oladipo will help. He is a capable ball handler, often stepping into the point guard role in Orlando and an average shooter who improved over the years. He peaked at .348% from three last year, but he never had the freedom afforded when the other team is worried about a rampaging Russell Westbrook ransacking their defense on the other side of the court. The added advantage is that ‘Dipo can also deputize as a point guard and a distributor, allowing the Thunder the flexibility to run Russ/Adams picks off ball, adding a wrinkle to Donovan’s schemes. If they’re able to balance out the possessions for setting up Westbrook of ball, he could be truly difficult to contain as opposed to running them in a one dimensional system. Victor also gives Thunder a second shut-down defender to play next to Andre Roberson, meaning they can hide (not that they have to) Russ on defense and give him appropriate rest.
Speaking of Roberson, it will be up to him to prove that his .324% shooting from behind the arc wasn’t a fluke. Those are not the flashiest numbers, but when you consider he’s a career .274% shooter, it is a significant improvement. He’s currently in the Solomon Hill “still need to prove I can do it with a larger sample size” category of statistical analysis. If he can match his respectable playoff output, and I’m not even asking for him to set the world on fire when he did one of the games, this can give OKC the space to execute the “let Russell Westbrook and Steven Adams put the fear of God in defenses” plan A.
The biggest problem with this team will always be depth. For them to stand any kind of a chance, Cameron Payne will have to take a step forward while deputizing at point, potentially even starting of Donovan wants to bring Oladipo’s scoring off the bench. Payne was great in college averaging 20.9 and 6 in his final year on .456% shooting from the field. He didn’t get a chance to showcase that in the NBA, but with smaller rosters he can feasibly slide in next to Westbrook and play as the team’s secondary ball handler on the floor. His three-point shooting doesn’t significantly outpace that of Oladipo or Roberson, but it given time on the court he may readjust to his final year percentage of .377%.
Unfortunately, the rest of the Thunder remain increasingly one dimensional specialists capable of filling a minor role, but not pulling a lot of the weight across the floor. Ersan is a stretch four with not much else to bring to the table, Morrow is a three minus D slugger and Kyle Singler is the human victory cigar we may not see Billy Donovan light up that often this year. Beyond the starting line-up, there are far too many holes for this team to plug with the departure of two of the stalwarts.
Overall this is a weapons test year for OKC. They have two years to convince Russell Westbrook to make his stay in Oklahoma City permanent and they’re not just going to wait around. With rumors of a Blake Griffin trade or a myriad of other moves on the horizon, it’s difficult to predict where exactly this Thunder team will end up. One thing is for sure, maybe we should wear hazmat suits to games in case the trail Westbrook leaves in his wake turns out to be radioactive.
