You liked these teams before it was cool
Let’s face it, you totally called Utah challenging for Playoffs like… 3 years ago.
The NBA hierarchy ladder exists in peaks and valleys. The team that is on top now may not be five years from now. In the past, this fluctuation could at least be relatively predicted by major market teams. It was a safe bet that a team located in a denser, urban environment would gather more fans, boost game attendance and make more money. The new TV deal throws that out of the window. Everyone is competing now, who knows what will happen three years from now.
A few years ago, the Golden State Warriors were just another team with “that one guy who shoots the ball real well” and now they’re the cosmic entity that rivals the Death Star in potential destruction capabilities. The Atlanta Hawks were just the first team to be held back by Josh Smith’s shot selection (as in he selects to take shots) and not a playoff contender perpetually one player away from toppling the league hierarchy as we know it.
Now, everyone wants to be basketball’s Nostradamus, everyone wants to uncover the next sensation, the new team to threaten all teams. Once upon a time there was Toronto (currently stagnating under the weight of DeMar DeRozan’s contract where he is getting paid 20$ per long two he is bound to take during its duration) or Milwaukee (what the hell is happening in Milwaukee? About that later). Now we have to find new ones.
Utah Jazz
It would be a colossal understatement to say that some people at Armchair like the Jazz. It would be like saying that LeBron James is just okay at basketball or Greg Popovich is like, a decent coach or something bruh. The Jazz have been knocking on the door for quite some time now, and this year may be the year that we will have to let them in (with one Gordon Hayward injury sized caveat somewhere in the middle).
The Utah Jazz are a grand slam on the hipster scale of team valuation. They’re from an obscure location that you would not readily identify as a brimming basketball hub. They have an unorthodox system against the modern grain, choosing to employ two serviceable big-men. They have an unusual leader in Gordon Hayward and a hipster future star in Dante Exum. Oh, and they pass the Popovich Six-Degrees of separation rule with ease (Quin Synder served after Budenhozer in Atlanta for one season before taking on the Jazz). But can they compete.
To start the season, Utah will have to weather the storm without their offensive leader. Last year, Gordon Hayward had one of the better seasons of his career averaging 19.7 points with 5 rebounds and 3.7 assists. He also managed to put up 1.2 steals per game. He led the Jazz along side Derrick Favors 16 and 8 to round out the team, Favors missing some time due to injury. Between the two of them, they did a serviceable job pushing the offence, the trouble came in with depth.
Dante Exum was injured, so was Alec Burks. Trey Burke proved to be fairly abysmal at deputizing as a replacement point guard, leaving Hayward to create for himself and the team more than a a small forward should. Overall, the team fared badly with Burke running point. For all of his defensive prowess and how much he makes Utah better, Gobert is still unrefined on the offensive end (although he is figuring out the pick and roll). Utah’s lack of depth consistently hurt it. This year it will be tested with Hayward out early.
The front office did a lot to manage expectations, but also to raise them in the off-season. Off the bat, they traded for George Hill, another product of the “Pop Proximity School of Basketball Play,” who is exactly the steady influence they lacked with Burke and the model for Exum to build on, at least initially. Statistically, Hill is entirely unspectacular but solid. He will not blow your mind, but he will take care of the ball, distribute and make shots when asked to. He averages 11.3 points and 3.5 assists per game and a neat .450% shooting clip. In other words, he is the perfect deputy for those nights Exum isn’t keeping up. Hill’s presence should take the pressure off the rest of the back court and allow Gordon Hayward (when back) to play off the ball more in controlled situations.
Speaking of Hayward, with Joe Johnson the Jazz should be able to at least manage competitive presence in the Playoff race. Sure, he played the worst basketball of his career since 2004 (breakout year in Phoenix) and at 35 his explosive step and slick handles aren’t what they used to be, but he can still pour in the points when necessary. He also brings a veteran presence that the Jazz have been pining for considering their young core. The absence of Hayward also means Alec Burks will have a larger role, something he was building towards before going out with injury last season. His numbers are similar to Johnson’s (pre-breakout), but he is only 25 and if he can mirror his new teammate’s career trajectory the Jazz should more than survive the absence of their top scorer.
The X-Factor here is Exum and his development. Before going down with an injury (and this summer), Exum showed flashes of brilliance you would expect from a 6'6 point guard. He wasn’t exactly brilliant in his first year, and losing a year to development will suck, but having George Hill as a steadying guide will help. His size will also allow Exum to run with smaller line-ups at the two and shooters such as Hill, Burks and Hayward (when back) around him.
Off the bat, Utah will have to figure out how to balance all of their big men. Their most used line-up of Gobert and Favors works. It’s great for balancing offensive touches (the Frenchman doesn’t need any) while creating a no fly zone in their own paint. Favors is free to go to work as Gobert will frequently pull out on pick and rolls, opening up the space. The issue here is that Gobert needs to get better going to the rim. If his offensive game remains a non factor, defenses will be free to sag off and help on a more capable Favors. In the past, the trade off has been worth it, given Gobert’s career defensive plus/minus of 4.7, but as teams get smaller and pull the Frenchman further away from the hoop you’ll have to wonder if that can keep working.
Luckily, the Jazz added much needed positional versatility this year as well by bringing in Boris Diaw in addition to Joe Johnson and George Hill. Not only is the second Frenchman good with the ball and knocking down the outside shot, he is a built in second ball-handler that can create on the fly when surrounded by shooters (something that Utah is increasingly trying to do). Diaw is a perfect player to fashion the youngster Trey Lyles after and I suspect this acquisition had that in mind as well. Boris can become the primary ball hander for second units, totally switching up the match-ups on the other end. The Jazz have the luxury of staying big by pairing either Diaw or Lyles with Gobert or going small with Diaw at the four (or even Diaw at the five with Joe Johnson moving up to four + Burks/Exum/Hill). There are many ways that Utah can now shuffle their line-up to fit the positional needs.
All this and we haven’t even mentioned Rodney Hood who broke out last year nearly doubling his points per game (8.7 to 14.5) while shooting .418% from the floor. A much better shooter in college, Hood should benefit from the influx of distributors on the team and knock down a few more shots per game. This will be tested early on as he will probably be the one to deputize Hayward’s absence in the starting line up.
Utah has the kind of fluid, position-less build the pundits have been saying the NBA is headed towards. With the exception of Gobert, every player can shift 2 or 3 positions across the floor and be fine. The key will be balancing it all with Gobert — the most one-dimensional player on the roster. As the fulcrum of their defense, he keeps them in play. Can the Jazz surround the Stifle Tower with enough shooting and offensive talent to offset his lack of production on that end? We’ll see.
Boston Celtics
It’s hard to consider the Celtics an underdog or the “up and comer” given that the whole city of Boston has been supporting them for decades, mostly with statements laden with such profanity it would make Quentin Tarantino blush. And yet here we are. Despite the storied history of the franchise and even the more recent successes, the Celtics find themselves on the up and up again. All due to a new coach, an unorthodox All-Star and a recent, shiny new acquisition in Al Horford.
The term hoarder can mean multiple things. For the most part, it has negative connotations. For the most part you think of your grandma who is reluctant to throw out that couch cushion because it may be worth something. Or the compulsive people who collect stamps for no damn good reason in this world. Danny Ainge nearly entered that territory last season.
The Celtics have been sitting on a pirate’s treasure worth of Draft assets for years now. In fact, I am convinced that in 2019 no one will have to attend the draft and we can just let Boston pick all 30 players because they will be headed to them. They also wavered in their draft strategy, often selecting weird positional assets that didn’t readily fit into the team’s build, now, it all seems to be coming together.
Boston has collected an intriguing collection of guards that can fill in for different positional needs. Isaiah Thomas II had his best season last year, averaging 22.2 points and 6.2 assits while shooting .437 from the field. Those are good numbers that earned him an All-Star nod. In a way, ITII is the perfect fit in the Brad Stevens system of frantic ball movement and consistent kick-outs that shift defenses out of position. He also fits in Boston because he can consistently be paired with either Avery Bradley or Marcus Smart, both plus defenders who allow Stevens to hide ITII on a weaker offensive option.
Both Smart and Avery do a lot of things well, but differently. Smart plays basketball as if someone is holding his family pet for ransom each game, chasing down everything in a feverish nightmare. He is a phenomenal defender who can go up in size to challenge everyone up to the dimensions of LeBron James. Bradley, while also good defensively is also a more refined shooter, that gives this team additional options on the floor next to Thomas. Neither is big enough to step up to three, but they have different skill sets that will allow Stevens to rotate them in situationally across the board.
Over the past two Drafts, they managed to add to this collection by bringing up James Young, Terry Rozier and RJ Hunter to the mix. They also have th versatility of Jaylen Brown and Jae Crowder to thank for the way this team will unfold. None of these players are proven entities and will still have much to prove (except for Crowder who is currently a bargain for a versatile 3/4). Brown showed flashes in the pre-season and summer league, but will have to find an appropriate way to fit into this scheme. When Boston goes small he might find time at the three, filling in at the two where necessary.
Crowder has been the silent X-Factor of the Stevens system, filling in where he is needed most. He had his best season, bumping his scoring to 14.5 points per game while also getting 5.1 rebounds. His positional fluidity and ability to defend across the floor allow Stevens the versatility to go small or big on a whim while also have a defender for some of the East’s bulkier scorers. The team is better off on the court with him (+4.7 +/- per 100 possessions) than without him (+3.5) and I expect to see his positional stats change (he spent 77% of his time at SF as opposed to only 22% at PF).
The key to all of this will be Al Horford. For years, the Celtics weren’t able to amass the balance in one big man quite like they wanted to. For each offensively proficient big (Kelly Olynyk) they gave up defensive versatility and for each rebounder and rim protector (Amir Johnson), the offense and the distribution took a hit.
Horford fixes that. A plus defender (there is a 3.3 +/- difference per hundred possessions with Horford on and off the floor) he can slide across either position, knock a jumper down from 15ft and out (.468% career shooter from more than 16ft shots worth two points while taking 23% of his shots from there as per Basketball Reference). He is alo a capable passer with a career average of just over 3 assists per game.
In Horford, Stevens gets a new shiny toy that he can slide across the four and the five spots on the floor and an offensive fulcrum in the post. Already the best inside passer on this team, Horford will be able to free up operating space for his guards while keeping defenses honest when he decides to step outside of the post. He may even be their best passer period.
With Horford, the opposing teams can no longer be focused on the extended three line and will have to account for watching over the post which will free up even more space for the likes of Avery and ITII. It’s an interesting experiment for Stevens to tinker with as he finally has the capable fulcrum to work his motion offense around.
