Some Insights on the Current State of the VC Industry (2025 Edition)

At Armilar’s 2025 Investors’ Day, we once again paused to reflect on the state of Venture Capital — where the industry stands, what’s changing, and where the next opportunities may lie.

The past few years have tested the market. Now, signs of recovery are emerging — but it’s a different kind of Spring, shaped by new forces and lasting shifts.

Here’s a glimpse of what we covered:

• After a long Winter in VC, green shoots are beginning to show
• Investment volumes are recovering, but with increased selectivity and a push from Mega rounds
• Europe is pulling its weight, especially in non-Mega round deals
• AI has become the major investment theme, following a similar path to traditional SaaS, but quickly surpassing it. x1AI is transforming SaaS: first expanding it (same product, better), then reinventing it (Service-as-a-Software), and eventually unbundling it (agentic AI)
• Still, liquidity has remained scarce, strongly limiting the capacity to attract new funding to the industry and boosting the secondary market;
• Companies are staying private longer, still prioritising growth over profitability — but growth continues to command a premium
• The stock of private companies that are theoretically ready to exit has reached unprecedented levels. These include category leaders that continue to grow, which should eventually unlock liquidity for their investors…
• … but the world’s current geopolitics add uncertainty and obscure the clouds on the horizon…
• …it also opens new doors for European entrepreneurship and strategic tech!
• Overall, it still feels like the arrival of Spring… But Spring on a different planet!

Watch the full 35-minute live presentation from our Managing Partner Pedro Ribeiro Santos below!

Armilar Investors’ Day 2025 — The Venture Capital Industry by Pedro Ribeiro Santos

We hope it offers relevant context — and sparks more conversations about what’s next in tech and venture.

A big thank-you to all the investors and friends who joined us and made the event so special!

Queries, constructive criticism and suggestions are very welcome. Please direct them to info@armilar.com