The New Geography of Influence
From the Atlantic and Pacific Centuries to the Era of Global Remix
I’m at a great party — the sounds of Arabian music fill the air, while aromas of Middle Eastern baked goods linger and young women in traditional costume extend hospitality to a roomful of distinguished guests. The city? Beijing.
What gives? Well, I’m here to make a presentation as part of Dubai Week in China. And as it turns out, I witnessed a bit of history in the making. What is at work here reflects a new geopolitical and economic dynamic that is playing its part in redrawing the world map. To me, we are in an era of Global Remix, one in which the behemoth that is China with its 1.3 billion people can find common cause with a tiny city state of 2.2 million people — Dubai — to produce a new economic and social understanding with global implications.
First, a bit of background. Geography is the key to understanding this phenomenon of Global Remix. Most maps today still reflect an Atlantic Century with the Americas on the left and Europe, the “old countries,” on the right. The Atlantic narrative reflects a particular history of economic and social influence as the business models of colonization and consumer culture once created in the West were rolled out to the rest of the world.
If the 20th century saw the high watermark of the Atlantic Century, the 21st is said to belong to the Pacific Century with the rise of China as its centerpiece. But there is another dynamic at work.
Let’s spin the globe to a different part of the world — Dubai. Forty years ago, this country was little more than a sleepy fishing village. Now it is an urban landscape worthy of the descriptive powers of the best science fiction writers. Dubai currently boasts the tallest building in the world — the Burj Khalifa. With an expat population of 80%, Dubai is culturally and socially diverse to an extreme.
From an infrastructure perspective, Dubai has a big face. It meets the world through Emirates — one of the best airlines in the world — as well as its wildly popular airport where traffic recently exceeded that of London’s Heathrow. If that were not enough, Dubai has built a second international airport some 40km away from the first to handle an anticipated upsurge in international travel. Dubai welcomed 13.2 million visitors in 2014. By 2020 the figure will rise to 20 million especially because the 2020 Expo — the world’s fair — will be held in, you guessed it, Dubai. The new airport is adjacent to the Expo site and Jebel Ali Port, one of the busiest container ports in the world, creating an interconnected air, sea and road logistics hub which enables seamless trade with the world.
Why this fevered activity? Well take a world globe and rotate it until Dubai lies in the center. Laid bare for all to see is the key point: geography is destiny. Within a four hour flight of Dubai lies 1/3 of the world’s population. Within an 8 hour flight radius, the percentage grows to 2/3. And the vast majority of this population lives in an early stage of social and economic development, which represents one of the biggest economic opportunities on the planet. Ultra rapid modernization at scale is something that both Dubai and China in their own way know a great deal about. So this apparently unlikely partnership between an odd couple is poised to define a new sphere of influence.
Interestingly enough, this Dubai down view of the globe places the Americas over the horizon; they are nowhere to be seen (policy-makers take note), and even the UK and other traditional centers of Western power lie at best at the periphery of this new world map.
But wait, where does China fit in to this story? Here is where it gets really interesting. The following factoid makes the point: In 2007, there were about 30 Chinese companies with operations in Dubai. Today there are well over 3000. 200,000 ethnic Chinese now live in Dubai, representing some 10% of the county’s population. And China has become Dubai’s largest trading partner with a volume of $47.6bn/year as of 2014. Why is Dubai intent on investing in infrastructure that supports travel, trade and commerce? With the rise of China — the middle kingdom suddenly does not look so “middle” any more. And Dubai is there to serve as the cultural transmission system, the hub and middleman for a tidal wave of commercial interest from China.
This fits squarely with China’s recently announced One Belt One Road initiative — a regeneration of the Silk Road trade corridor from China through the Middle East to Europe, and a Maritime Belt traversing South East Asia and the Straits of Malacca to generate maritime presence throughout the Indian Ocean and through the Suez Canal into the Mediterranean. This is nothing less than China’s ambitious program to create a vast economic sphere of influence. And of course with economic influence comes political power. Hence the Chinese appetite to reach out through Dubai.
Which gets us back to remix. Dubai is adept at remix, a tradition that comes from its trading, entrepot roots. Now it is remixing modern technology with traditional cultural values, 1st world sophistication and developing world realities, new and old business models. Into this cultural and business “roundhouse” that is Dubai now comes China, flowing like water into new, large scale opportunity spaces.
Back to the party. A young British man — an employee of Falcon, the organization which initiated Dubai Week in China — MCs the meeting in perfect Mandarin, while Falcon’s Chinese professionals work the room. A video is shown of the Chinese national ping pong team — massive heroes at home — playing an exhibition game atop the sail-shaped Burj Al Arab hotel and wearing team shirts that sport the Dubai logo. Yes, Dubai is a major sponsor of the Chinese national ping pong team.
At the conclusion of the opening ceremony, Her Excellency Reem Al Hashimy, UAE Minister of State, elegant in her abaya, and Madame Li Xiaolin, President of the Chinese People’s Association for Friendship with Foreign Countries exchange symbolic gifts. From Dubai comes a large silver coffee pot — a Dallah, a traditional symbol of hospitality and generosity. From China comes a beautiful blue and white vase symbolizing prosperity. One couldn’t help but think that history was being made here and with the exchange of highly symbolic gifts that were not daggers or rifles — traditional expansionist fare — but rather spoke of shared prosperity and mutuality.
