“I’m uneasy about this most trendy and oversold community …”

When Predictions Don’t Quite Work

Introduction

A few years ago, I predicted that JavaScript would be finished as it was a terrible language. How wrong could I be? JavaScript is on the top of the hill just now and can do no wrong. So if we could predict the future, we would all be billionaires, and place bets on things that came true.

Innovation itself, too, can never really be predicted, and that is why small companies often do better than large ones (as large ones often play by the book, and don’t take risks). There are too many people who like the status quo, and who cannot quite see how truly disruptive methods could change our worlds.

Over the years, there have been some shocking predictions which seem sensible when they are made, but eventually, they seem strange:

• “The Beatles have no place in showbusiness”. Decca Executive.
• “Television won’t be able to hold on to any market it captures after the first six months. People will soon get tired of staring at a plywood box every night.”, Darryl Zanuck, an executive at 20th Century Fox, 1946
• “Nuclear-powered vacuum cleaners will probably be a reality within ten years.” Alex Lewyt, president of Lewyt vacuum…