The Asia Society Iran Salon: Key take-aways
Highlights from our event on the present and future of Iran
On March 23, 2017, Asia Society Switzerland held its first Salon event on the topic of Iran. The evening was designed to provide a range of different perspectives on a complex and often misunderstood country and its complicated relationship with the rest of the world. Speakers included Ramita Navai, a British-Iranian journalist who was the Times correspondent in Tehran from 2003–2006, and has written a book about Tehran called “City of Lies”; Hossein Rassam, a political analyst on Iran, who used to work for the British Embassy in Tehran (before being arrested during the “Green Revolution” in 2009); and Philippe Welti, former Swiss Ambassador to Iran and India.
Below are some key take-aways and pictures from the conversations that evening.
On the “Green Revolution” — the protests which erupted in 2009 after the re-election of then-president Ahmadinejad:
Ramita Navai: The Green Revolution was crushed, and it had a striking effect on Iranians. You can really see this: Iranians now fear dramatic change, because they worry it will end in a bloodbath. Even some of those I’ve spoken to who are opposed to the system think that change will have to come from within.
Hossein Rassam: It also wasn’t really a revolution, it was more like a movement. It never gained sufficient support outside Tehran, and the people involved couldn’t agree on an objective.
Ramita: The government panicked because they were worried it would spread to other cities. But of course, their brutal reaction was, in their view, effective: It changed the attitudes of Iranians towards going to the streets and protesting.
On current changes in Iran’s youth culture:
Ramita: Over the last years, there has been a sexual awakening, at least in Tehran, which I think is very significant. Virginity is not the taboo factor it used to be, and living together before marriage is becoming more widespread. And it’s not just the rich kids in North Tehran — this is a middle class phenomenon! It’s not, in a narrow sense, political, but it is a reaction to oppression: It’s the one place where kids can be in control. And of course, the internet has played a huge role in that as well.
Hossein: I agree that the younger generation is behaving quite differently. I think there’s also the issue of a “paradigm vacuum”, of being uncertain about one’s own values, because the country went through so many transitions so quickly. Many Iranians believe that fate decides their lives, there is a sense of frustration and fatalism. That’s also why corruption is so widespread. Only 25% of Iranians say they can trust other people, and 70% believe that they need connections to get by in life.
On Iran’s regional ambitions and connections:
Hossein: Iran wants to be the dominant force in the region and have influence. But it also sees itself as being under constant threat, and as having no allies in the region. That’s why Iran believes it needs “strategic depth”, and that’s why they support militias across the region: To secure their borders from the outside, not just the inside.
Ramita: I have recently come back from Iraq, where I spent a lot of time with Shi’a militias backed by Iran. Only some of them are full Iran proxies though, for most others, it’s a complicated relationship. They will get logistical support and money, and many of them follow the Supreme Leader, but most of them have a very Iraqi nationalistic identity. I would say it’s a love-hate relationship. Iran also likes to be the broker among all these groups, it likes when the competing factions fly to Tehran to vie for influence.
Philippe Welti: One important regional connection of Iran is India. Last June, shortly after the nuclear deal was signed, India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi visited Tehran, and the two countries signed agreement to collaborate on building a port in Chabahar, in Eastern Iran. Crucially, the port is not far away from Gwadar (in Pakistan), where China has built a huge port already. The Chabahar port will give India direct access to Central Asia.
On US-Iranian relations:
Hossein: It’s obvious that Iran is currently holding back anything that could be seen as a provocation of the U.S. It would be very unwise to provide any excuse to break the nuclear deal right now. However — it’s important to note that from Tehran, Donald Trump doesn’t present a fundamental shift: In Iran’s view, U.S. strategy towards the country has always been the same.
On Iran’s domestic politics:
Hossein: The West usually distinguishes between hardliners and reformers in Iran, but I think another distinction is more useful: Between integrationists and interactionists. The former want to integrate the country more into the global economy and global system. They believe this will lead to less hostility and fewer crises. Current president Rouhani and his team belong to this camp. The interactionists on the other hand don’t want North Korea-style isolation — but they take a very utilitarian approach to interaction with the outside world, and don’t want more of it than necessary.
Philippe: Iranian elections are famously unpredictable — but if I had to take a guess, I would say that Rouhani is probably going to be re-elected in May. No contender has emerged so far, and Supreme Leader Khamenei isn’t endorsing anyone.
The event was kindly supported by Clariant.
