Race for next UN chief: Guterres still leads, Bokova falls, is it time for Georgieva?

The biggest winner of the latest Security Council straw poll might have been EU budget Commissioner Kristalina Georgieva, who is not even a candidate. That’s because the Bulgarian prime minister Boyko Borissov had been rumored to pull his support for UNESCO leader Irina Bokova’s bid to become the next Secretary-General of the UN, and replace her with Georgieva if the former started losing support.

The results on Monday were devastating for Bokova. Only six countries voted to “encourage” her candidacy, seven voted to “discourage” and two had “no opinion.” She finished sixth out of nine candidates. Both were her worst performances yet.

If Georgieva were to take Bokova’s place as Bulgaria’s nominee, she would have to go through a round of public interviews like the other candidates. She would have to act fast, as the next straw poll is scheduled for October 5th.

Here are the full results of the vote:

Looking at the remaining slate of candidates, Guterres holds the lead for the fifth time. His 12–2–1 record is unchanged from the last straw poll, but his lead has widened due to Miroslav Lajcak and Vuc Jeremic losing ground.

While this poll doesn’t tell us anything about whether Russia is willing to accept Guterres or not, the former UN High Commissioner for Refugees has to be pleased that he’s still at 12 “encourage” votes after five straw polls. If there is a campaign out there to draw votes away from Guterres, it is clearly not working.

The next straw poll is going to be the most revealing yet. Finally, the ballots will be color-coded so we’ll know which candidate faces a veto threat by a permanent member of the Security Council. If it turns out Russia opposes the front-runner Guterres, who knows where this race is going.