Ingredients to a Rivalry

Everyone loves a rivalry. In music, there was 2pac vs. Biggie. In fashion, there was a rivalry between Saint Laurent vs. Tom Ford. In film, there was the unforgettable rivalry between Happy Gilmore and Shooter McGavin. Between brands, there are some great rivalries; Apple vs. Microsoft, Nike vs. Adidas, and IHOB vs. any chain that makes burgers. Something about two adversarial opponents doing everything in their power to beat the other is intoxicating. That said, nowhere are rivalries more prevalent than in sports.

Sports rivalries are great because you can actually buy a front row seat to experience the competition first hand. As each new chapter in the saga unfolds, fans are there to be a part of history in the making. As pleasant as this is for ticket sales and television advertising dollars, I wanted to know more about what makes a great rivalry, so I did some digging.

Well into my search for the ingredients of a great rivalry, I stumbled upon an article by Art Markman entitled, “The psychology of a sports rivalry.” Art provides the three critical ingredients as, similarity, frequency, and parity. Armed with this information and the fact that half my family is Portuguese speaking, I could finally determine if Brazil has a budding rivalry with another country headed into the world cup. One country stuck out like a sore thumb, Germany.

Parity: How even are the two teams?

World Cup 2002

The last time Brazil won a world cup was in 2002. The Brazilian team won 2–0 to none other than Germany.

World Cup 2014

Four years ago, when asked about Brazil’s chances to win the World Cup, family members were excited. The team was healthy and trailed only Spain and Germany in FIFA’s world rankings. As Brazil advanced all the way to the semi-final, the excitement matured into boasting with some proclaiming the trophy would return to its rightful owner — Brazil.

Then a day that will live in infamy, July 8, 2014, happened. Germany obliterated Brazil’s hopes of a sixth world cup trophy by destroying them 7–1.

As a result, in my house we don’t discuss the last World Cup, we egg Volkswagens, and all 7s mysteriously went missing from the family deck of cards.

The feeling wasn’t sadness or even disappointment; it was an untold embarrassment. With such a rich history of talented footballers, many consider Brazil the pinnacle of fútbol. Brazil is the only country to win five World Cup tournaments, and they are also the only team to qualify/play in every world cup. Also, Pelè.

Fun Fact

After the 2014 World Cup win, Germany is now one World Cup championship from tieing Brazil with 5.

The Olympics

In 2016, Brazil had the privilege to host the summer Olympic games in Rio. While a majority of the world fixated on other events, Brazilians kept their eyes on the fútbol team. Brazil outclassed much of the field and made it to the final game where they played none other than Germany.

Excitement and jubilation turned to nerves and anxiety. With the world once again watching, would this championship match end in embarrassment too? In a thrilling match that went to penalty kicks, Brazil won 5–4 to take home gold.

You might think the win would vindicate the team from their prior loss to Germany, but it didn’t. Given the opportunity, people tend to point fingers or make excuses for their failure. In this case, many looked to the Olympic age limit for soccer being 23 years of age. This age limit meant that some of Germany’s star players were not able to play for their team at the Olympics. To which Brazilians countered, with the fact that Neymar was injured and Tiago Silva did not play due to his one-game suspension for the 7–1 torching they received from Germany.

Similarity: Are these teams evenly matched?

From Marcelo and Neymar Jr. to Toni Kroos and Ozil both teams are chalked full of world-class talent. Both sides have a solid mix of up-and-coming talent playing alongside seasoned veterans. This Quora thread breaks down each group and analyzes the defense, midfield, and striking abilities of each team. Even the person who posted the analysis lists many if-then statements to justify which team would win; they are evenly matched opponents, on paper at least.

Frequency: Do these teams play often?

No. The national teams might play a friendly here or there, but these matches have marginal meaning regarding which team is better. The fact that they don’t play often raises the stakes when they do play in the World Cup. Fans are tuned in because they only get a few chances every four years to play the opposing team. These games transcend our expectations as fans, becoming moments in our lives, not just 90 minutes + stoppage.

March 2018

In March of this year, I was in Brazil visiting family. Between the pastéis, Pão de queijo, and ensuing food coma, I had the opportunity to ask what expectations people had for the Brazilian team heading into the World Cup.
Asking this question was when I came to this profound realization, Brazilians are nervous. You can see it in their eyes when asked: “Will Brazil win the cup this year?” Their eyes light up, they smile, but then a reverse psychology switch flips, and they give a reason to doubt Brazil. Maybe Brazilian fans see this as an opportunity to change the result. By not proclaiming their country the winners and being outwardly modest, it might help their odds in some way.

Here are a few doubts that I heard:

“Germany is a dominant team.”
“Germany is favored to win it all.”
“The team isn’t that strong.”
“Neymar is hurt.”
“I saw an article that said some robot ran thousands of simulations and picked Spain and Germany over Brazil. Just like in 2014.”

Notice a theme? All of the responses I received were in direct reference to either the Brazilian or German teams, affirming my claim that they are similar and have some level of parity.

Conclusion

Rivalry plays an enormous role in sports, especially with fans. These rivalries attract new fans some introduced to the sport, and others are fans of another team faced with choosing the lesser of two evils. A rivalry can galvanize the world, causing everyone to pick a side and cheer for that side, even for just one game.

As I was filling out my World Cup bracket before the tournament started, and I couldn’t help but notice that if Brazil were to get another shot at Germany, it would be in the final game. The stakes would be at an all-time high.

Marred by that crushing defeat they suffered four years ago to Germany, Brazil is ready to write some new fútbol history this year. While Germany would be playing to avenge the 2002 German team that lost to Brazil in the final, and further the debate that the Olympic gold medal would not be with Brazil if they had their star-studded cast in 2016.

Update:

With Germany losing to South Korea they have officially been eliminated from the World Cup 2018 tournament. Brazil squeaked by in the group stage to move into the quarterfinals. Oh, and Brazilians also took the liberty of holding a funeral for Germany’s world cup hopes. Unfortunately, these two teams will not get a chance to play each other in the final game. However, if they both made it to the World Cup in 2022 and had the opportunity to play each other, this game, with all of these compelling storylines and history between the teams, would be an epic next chapter in the budding rivalry between Germany and Brazil. An event of this magnitude would cause the world to stop and watch for 90 minutes + stoppage, and years later everyone would be able to recall where they were when these two teams clashed once again.

Q:

Do you think Germany and Brazil will become a rivalry?
Who do you think will win the World Cup 2018?

If you enjoyed the article above, consider following and give us a few 👏 You can also reach out to us on Twitter @askimpulse if you have a feature suggestion or just want to say “what up.”

Stay curious,
Marty