Disappearing ISIS
In 2019 March, Syrian and the U.S government said the ISIS has already been defeated, but on April 30, 2019, ISIS media released a video about their leader is inspiring the jihadist and agree with the terrorist act during Easter in Sri Lanka. Their leader also mentioned that although strongholds of ISIS had been taken back to Syria, the terrorist acts would not stop and they will not only happen in the middle east but the whole world. Since the video was released, no one knows where was the video filmed even if the leader is wanted for 25M.
Since 2015, ISIS had lost most of its territory and become not as threatening as before. There are main three reasons why ISIS would be like right now. 1.Territory 2.Plan for war 3. Way ISIS seizes the land. Although ISIS is much weaker now, governments in the world are still ready to fight the terrorist group no matter what.
Territory
There would be two subdivisions to explain the issue territory brought, and one is the location of its territories, and another is the shape of territory.
Location
In 2015, even if ISIS had a larger territory between Syria and Iraq, these territories are not very important for them, they just mean the influence of ISIS had come. Some territories produce oil, but some do not. But why these territories are not important? Because the end goal of ISIS is to build a caliphate, in order to achieve this goal, they have to beat down at least Syria and Iraq these two governments, and to beats them down, the hardest hit would be on the most important city which would be capital , a place gather with power, politic, and economy. If they can not give their enemies a big hit, enemies would still exist and the war between them would be last for a long time. ISIS chose Raqqa as its capital, this city is only the 7th largest city, and there is nothing capital have, therefore even this city was taken by others, it would not hurt the operation of government. And chose Raqqa as capital only bring advantage for enemies of ISIS because they can attack them whenever they are ready. It was never a rush to take it back.
Shape of territory
The shape of ISIS territory is narrow and separated, it made the defense much harder, and the amount of logistics supply would be divided into several pieces, and none of them would get enough support. The first territories they lose would be eastern and western side, and the land near capital would be lost later. Although ISIS can gain the land in a short period, but hard to defend it. ISIS formed mainly by jihadists and some volunteers, compared to the normal national army, the amount of members is much less. Lack of defense due to the little number of members would let the army can take back cities one by one especially these territories are separated.
Plan for war
When ISIS started to expand its territory, apparently they were not well organized, it seems like they achieved more than they expected it to be. The impossible goal and plan after over the top of victory, the two elements made ISIS lose their advantage and been defeated in the end.
The impossible goal
The end goal of ISIS to build a caliphate and jihadists would like to do it in one time instead of separate the goal into several pieces and complete it after some certain element had been fulfilled. ISIS obviously miscalculated the rate of their victory, what they faced is army which is able to surround them all. ISIS gain their land through guerrilla and terrorist acts as suicide bombs, they can beat down a national army in short term, but in long term, there is no way for ISIS to gain any more land. Their territories are separated, and that is the weakest part of ISIS, and offense and defense of each side can only rely on their own when everyone is in the war, no one can be saved or supported.
ISIS used to get cities that they are able to get but not with strategic, and that is why their territories are separated. The way for ISIS to achieve their impossible goal successfully is to make short and long term plan, and only move on to long term plan when the short was completed. ISIS should randomly choose one of the cities near the capital of Syria or Iraq and seize it surprisedly. The city would be a core, as headquarter and expand from here and get the cities one by one until they are able to assault the capital. ISIS would only have legitimate to rule or build a country when the capital is under their command.
Plan after over the top of the victory
This plan played a huge role after ISIS quickly explained its territories, but one thing ISIS did not realize the territories they had in 2015 is already in maximum status. Even if they can gain more land, they would not be able to keep it under ISIS.
In order to build the caliphate, beat down all the enemies is supposed to be on the to-do list, but not only beating down all the enemies is named victory due to it is impossible for ISIS. ISIS was so successful in the initial stage because its enemies lose its territories since ISIS invaded. ISIS did not know where is the top of victory and missed it, that is the start of a disadvantage. If ISIS recognized the top of victory and have a peace deal with its enemies and its alliances, with the unstoppable attack that time, maybe the caliphate was able to be built in history. Missing the chance made disadvantage and hard to defend their territories. Soon after the foreign armies involved in it and a coalition of foreign armies and local army beat ISIS down.
Way ISIS seizes the land
ISIS used military force to invade a country and made hundreds of causalities in every city they went to. This kind of way of killing and ruling civilians with extremely conservative Islamic law made the civilians start to raise their weapon against them. Civilians formed several militias which is just to beat ISIS down. And militia is not the only group had fought with ISIS, Syrian Armed Forces and Free Syrian Army and some foreign force joined to fight even if they were fighting together in the Syrian civil war.
Governmental force, anti-governmental force, foreign force, and militias fought ISIS in a different way, and make ISIS hard to the defense all of them at the same time. But one thing can make ISIS had more time to prepare is to kill the leader of the militia. When foreign force came to this battlefield, they usually would have a coalition with some groups of militia, and militia would be the guide, once the leader of the militia was killed, the players in this area would shuffle and the status would become more complicated and have to come back to peace in some times. And the new leader may not like to work with foreign force, and they would have to seek another guide. This move is the best way for ISIS to get time to rest.
Future
The best moment for ISIS to rise is wartime, but with the war in the middle east came to end, ISIS would turn back to its original way and be more like a terrorist group instead of a force. If governments are able to to keep the middle east peaceful, ISIS would be hard to come back to achieve what they did in 2015.
