LIBYA: NEXT SYRIA?
After the regime of Gathafi in Libya was overthrown in 2015, Libya is in chaos until now. Currently, there is two separated government which has different alliances rule this country. General Hafter who is claimed renegade by UN-recognized government — GNA has ordered his troops to enter Tripoli and army between these two governments has started firing, and there are more than 200 hundred casualties since April 7th.
WHICH SIDE IS RENEGADE?
Since 2015, two governments in Libya were located separately in Tripoli and Benghazi. The government bases in Tripoli is recognized by the UN and most western countries, and it was called the Government of National Accord (GNA). Another government which is an alliance of Hafter bases in Benghazi is only recognized by U.A.E, Saudi Arabia, and Egypt. Although the government in Tripoli was recognized by major countries in the world actually there is no renegade side in this war, there are only two groups that are trying to keep their biggest interests in their own region. The reason why GNA calls Hafter as a renegade side is to give themselves an excuse to attack the Hafter army which is also called Libyan National Army (LNA), but they do not need any reason to defend themselves. Only the UN cares who is renegade because the UN and western countries cast the Tripoli government a lot, they do not want to support the wrong side. But ironically, the NATO-backed army overthrow Gathafi’s regime in 2015, maybe the UN is really the renegade?
If we decide which side is a legitimate government by location, and the answer must be the Tripoli government. Location matter because Tripoli is also the capital of Gathadi’s regime. And most important government administration and the foreign embassy were here, so who get Tripoli, who can claim themselves as a legitimate regime and destroy enemy of opponent. When there is only one government in Libya, most countries in the world would accept this government as a rightful regime. But if these two governments keep firing each other for a long time, they would get their different foreign alliance and this war would last for a long time.
THEY OWN THEIR OWN INTERNATIONAL ALLIANCE
The GNA government is supported by UN and western countries, Hafter is supported by Middle East such as U.A.E, Saudi Arabia, and Egypt. This is not just two governments against each other but more like Middle East v.s. West. Modern Libya is a young country that is formed after WWII, and normally this kind of conflict would easily become a proxy war, and this situation could make the war harder to finish.
And why the West and the Middle East support the different regimes in Libya even though they are all members of the UN? The reason is they support their own political system. On the other hand, this war is Democracy against Dictatorship, they want to to keep the biggest interest with them. Although Hafter was claimed as a rebellion by GNA, he has been especially effective at beating back terrorism acts, and this made him a strong warlord in Libya. Hafter’s alliances are U.A.E, Saudi Arabia, and Egypt which are all in a dictatorship, that why they support Hafter to get the power and foresee him as an anchor to restore sustainability in Libya. It seems like they can only maintain their biggest interest when Libya is stable and do not care about human rights or how to make democracy work in this country. The West has a different view about Libya, they support the GNA government to make democracy happen. But the UN seldom excused its plan in history, and these countries do not really care about what the UN made them do.
When the number of their alliance increases, the more complicate the status it would be, this war would only become a proxy war, and mostly civilians or who live on this land have to pay the price to have peace but not other foreign countries because they pay for the war.
WOULD HAFTER BE ABLE TI GET THE POWER ?
Hafter stands more chance to get the power than GNA mostly because Hafter’s army is better than GNA. And Hafter’s alliances are supported him with transporting weapons to him. Although Hafter has more chance but someone who is not in the game but may play a huge role in the future — the U.S.
The U.S would be like a game changer in Libya, but would Trump willing to send his troops to there? Trump just finally let his troops from Syria back home, it is a hard decision for Trump especially he does not know if the war would last as long as the Syrian civil war or not. Trump’s government may investigate Hafter and have a meeting with him to know his purpose and if what he wants to affect the interest of the U.S.
This time, war is not started by the U.S but European countries, if they did not overthrow Gathafi’s regime, and maybe Libya now is not in chaos. European countries should not just ask for help from the U.S when they started something they cannot finish especially majority U.S citizen do not like their president start sending their troops to other countries for war and made a huge number of causalities. This thought made the president in power start ending wars that were brought by the former president to get the vote.
This war in Libya has many similarities as the Syrian civil war, every side has different supporter or alliance, UN involved but no change happen, and soon it would become a proxy war. This is a war which cannot finish by their own countries, it all depends on foreign countries because when two governments do not have any supporter or alliance to supply weapon, this war could not last for over 3 months. When foreign countries try to increase their interest in this nation but not finish the war as soon as they can, this war would never end.
No matter who becomes the winner at the end of this war, the loser would always be civilian.
