THE ROAD to PEACE in AFGHANISTAN
In 26th Feb 2019, the U.S and Taliban had a negotiation for peace in Afghanistan in Doha, Qatar. 16 days have gone, only the framework came out but nothing else. In this meeting, there is no delegate from the current Afghanistan government because the Taliban would not think there is no benefit to talk with them. This status shows the Taliban and the U.S have more influence than the current Afghanistan government. But ‘’PEACE’’ would need three sides: the U.S, Taliban, and the current Afghanistan government to work on it.
National Unity
Conflicts are often started from people who do not understand each other, and Conflicts would become crises or even war. Due to the location of Afghanistan, this country is with many races, and Paṣ̌tun is the biggest nation, therefore it would have tranny of majority in this society, the minority cannot have equal right or power as Paṣ̌tun. Some nation has different religion compare to others, the minority believe in Shia, like Hazāra, but the majority is in Sunni and majority think people who believe in Shia in infidel, and holocaust would happen: When Taliban rule the country, they used to execute Hazāra. Except for the invader from a foreign country, there are still many crises in the nation which is from the opposition of two races. Afghanistan seems like it is separated different tribal but not a country, Afghan people do not have ‘’Identity’’ of being an Afghan but being in their own nation. Unity can change the future of a county. Most afghan still only feel belonging of their race, that is why Afghanistan can still control the same territory after some strong foreign countries invaded before. It is good for Afghanistan but also bad, Afghanistan is now ruled by one government, but truth is, most areas are under control of warlords or tribal elder, as a result of policies of government cannot be reached and influence the security in that area.
Lasting Peace
Peace would eventually arrive in Afghanistan would depends on whether the U.S and the Taliban can sign the peace deal in Qatar, finish the war which has last 17 years in Afghanistan.
For now, only 4 frameworks had come out:1. Counterterrorism assurance, 2.Troops withdrawal, 3.Intra-Afghanistan dialogue, and 4.Comprehensive ceasefire.
Two of these frameworks are odd. 1st: Is the Taliban a terrorist organization? 2nd: Why should they hold an Intra-Afghanistan dialogue?
To the first point: Is the Taliban a terrorist organization? From this aspect, the Taliban is a military organization that loses power to rule this country but not terrorism. And there were many terrorist attacks from the Taliban, if they want to counter terrorism, the Taliban have to against themselves? One thing people should know, international society still does not have a definition of ‘’terrorism’’. If Counterterrorism would be part of the peace deal, the U.S and the Taliban have to define what is terrorism and terrorist attack.
To the second point: Why should they hold an Intra-Afghanistan dialogue? The reason why the Taliban choose the U.S to talk about peace in Afghanistan but not the current Afghanistan government, in the view of the current Afghanistan government, is a puppet of the U.S. What is odd is if the peace deal was signed, it had already been under table since they start to talk, keep away from public opinion, and what Intra-Afghanistan dialogue trying to prove ? Hope Afghan can have a better solution or just a warning for Afghan?
When people read these basic 4 frameworks, people would know the peace the U.S and the Taliban try to achieve is not the integral peace in Afghanistan, but just the U.S and Taliban should not against each other anymore. The integral peace in Afghanistan contains equal human rights, no hunger justice, etc. These issues are the real topics for current Afghanistan to work on.
National Security
The national security of Afghanistan is influenced by two parts: diplomacy and internal affairs.
For the diplomacy side: Geographic location of Afghanistan has a streamy important position in the globe. It is surrounded by Pakistan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, Tadzhikistan, Iran, and China. Therefore diplomatic relationship is quite valuable for national security in Afghanistan.
First, Pakistan and Indian have fought for a long time since they are independent of the British Empire. Both countries have the nuclear weapon, Afghanistan becomes the best spot for the U.S army to put their troops here to keep these two countries under watch and avoid conflicts turn into the war.
Second, Russia still has a great influence on these three countries which were part of the Soviet Union, Central Asia is just like the garden of Russia. When the Soviet Union invaded Afghanistan in 1979 was entered by Turkmenistan.
Third, Afghanistan shared borders with Iran and China which are the hostile countries for the U.S.The Geographic location of Afghanistan makes the U.S want this county can be an alliance for even can be easily controlled.
For the Internal Affairs side: The problem is the territory of current Afghanistan is separated into 3 part: current the current Afghanistan government control 53.8 %, Taliban control 12.3%, the Contested area is 33.9%.
The current Afghanistan government cannot fully control all the territory, and the terrorist attack by the Taliban usually used Guerrilla and suicide bomb. This kind of way of attacking civilians is hard to predict. What is worse is police and army are not on the same page of counter-terrorism. And the Taliban is getting back its power back, taking back their stronghold one by one. If the U.S and Taliban cannot sign the peace deal, Afghanistan would only have more and more Casualties but not less.
There are many obstacles in the road to peace in Afghanistan, at least 3 are waiting for the current Afghanistan government, the Taliban, and the U.S to work on it because they are in the same boat already. There is no winner in this 17 years long war, as no one can be beaten down by another.
In 2001, the U.S invade Afghanistan with revenge due to 911, the way the U.S choose to counter terrorism is wrong. ‘’WAR’’ is not the tool for revenge but used on Politic issue.
It would be a big step for peace in Afghanistan if they can sign the peace deal in Qatar. But the true pace requires all the Afghan to be a unity and achieve.
