American Isolationism and China’s One Belt, One Road to Global Dominance
“You can’t build a wall round a village.
The sun and the wind
will always find their way in.”― Igor Goldkind
Trump’s America: a country that has taken a step back from its very noticeable global presence; a country that has receded into the shadows of its own problems; a country that has decided to put itself on the lonely path of isolationism, deceiving its people by supposedly ‘putting itself first.’ The international stage has lost a major player: and in this vacuum, looms the head of a previously dormant dragon, ready to leap onto the centre-stage, ready to steal the show. Trump’s stance represents a departure from the US foreign policy which created the rules-based international order after World War II. This disengagement is creating a political vacuum on the geopolitical level, which China is trying to fill.
China has been aggressively pursuing the One Belt, One Road initiative, which spans three continents and covers almost 60 percent of the world’s population, in a bid to assert its global dominance and occupy the role that the US has held till date, a rearrangement of the current world order. In this regard, China has invested massively into major infrastructure projects over a vast geographic region — ranging from East Africa to Europe, Oceania and predictably, a large part of Asia as well. Some examples include a gas pipeline in Pakistan, a high-speed rail link in Thailand, and a motorway in Hungary; and also the airport in Sri Lanka, which Sri Lanka ironically paid back for by selling it to India.
“China’s overseas investment and cooperation in capacity building and infrastructure construction have driven industrialization of the countries concerned and promoted local people’s livelihood and economic and social development.”
— Xi Jinping, Chinese President
A part of this initiative is the AIIB (Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank) that provides loans for infrastructure projects across China’s extended sphere of influence. The major issue with China’s sudden rise in lending activities is that it isn’t a member of the OECD or the Development Assistance Committee, which regulates aid policy. And this essentially means that there is no cap to China’s aid initiatives. The fear among foreign policy experts is that in order to adequately repay loans, China can strategically corner poor nations into a position where they have to give away ports, land (as in the case of Tajikistan, which allegedly “gave away” 1158 square kilometers of disputed land) and other assets. In some cases, it could be silence on human rights violations. This so-called ‘debt-trap diplomacy’ is a manifestation of neo-colonialism that could radically alter China’s role on the world stage.
“In a globalised world, there are many belts and many roads, and no one nation should put itself into a position of dictating ‘one belt, one road’.”
— James N. Mattis, Secretary of Defence, The United States of America
While this initiative is largely a soft-power push by China, it also possesses clear shows of strength: for example, the first overseas military base that it established in Djibouti, lies along it. After all, if this megalith of a project can facilitate the passage of goods, then it most certainly can allow the passage of troops. If anything, China is using its newfound economic prowess to scare vulnerable, economically-deprived nations into submission as opposed to gaining their trust and respect. All this is made more convenient, thanks to the gaping lack of a questioning authority.
Although nations such as India, do stand up to the intimidating powerhouse that is China, it is the United States that is the indisputable regulator of China’s dramatic and austere rise. As long as Trump’s America sticks to its mirage of self-contained prosperity, it cannot prevent China from having its way and monopolizing much of international trade and politics. It remains to be seen whether the One Belt, One Road initiative can catapult China, to surpass the US as the dominant world power.
Knowing the unpredictability of Trump, it is fair to assess that the balance of power is on a very unstable pedestal.
