How to Avoid a Catastrophe: Lessons for Communicators from Futurist Amy Webb
A highlight of each year’s Online News Association conference is futurist Amy Webb’s presentation on the trends that will impact the future of news, technology, and information. This year marked a turning point in Webb’s 10 years of presenting at ONA.
Instead of presenting an optimistic vision of how technology will improve the quality and distribution of news, Webb painted a dystopic future, cautioning that if communicators and publishers do not recognize where some trends are leading, they could contribute to the decline of the industry, society, and possibly democracy.
These trends include the rising volume of fake news, the market dominance of a small number of technology companies, the commoditization of personal data, and the likelihood that other countries are harnessing social platforms to sow confusion and chaos.
“What’s about to happen is going to fundamentally alter journalism,” she says. “We are going to wind up on the other side of this with a media landscape that we may not recognize.”
But Webb believes there are three possible versions of what’s to come.
In her optimistic prediction, media leaders take immediate actions to preserve publishers’ independence and foster a strong democracy. Social and business leaders think through the implications of technological advances to avoid threats to individual rights.
In her pragmatic prediction, media leaders are reactive and have minimal influence in shaping technology. Some businesses will thrive, but the public’s trust in institutions may further wane. This is the path that Webb sees as most likely to happen at current levels of innovation.
Her final prediction is the catastrophic prediction. In this scenario, a handful of tech companies have an unbalanced influence on the rest of society, the media industry fails to innovate and loses public trust while bad actors use technological advances to create further chaos in the news cycle. The changes pose an existential risk to democracy and global security.
If it sounds grim, that’s because it is. That’s why Webb encouraged all attendees to be proactive and to prepare for the technology as if it exists today. Her recommendations apply to all communications leaders, not just news publishers, editors, and reporters.
Here are the three key insights from Webb’s presentation. For each we map out the best- and worst-case scenario and one thing you can start doing today to support the best-case scenario for your organization and society.
1. What happens after websites?
Soon, you won’t type information into a browser or click through an app. Instead, you will ask a question to your mobile device or smart speaker and you’ll receive an audio response. Webb calls this the “zero-user interface” setting.
Users will have conversations with machines, and the computers will know the type of information the user is looking for and will respond instantly. The interactions will be intuitive, but there will be a trade-off in knowing whether the information is coming from a credible source.
“In a zero UI setting, it will be awkward to cite sources and news brands,” Webb says.
How will communicators ensure that their organization is properly cited when it is the source of a voice search? Which voice queries should surface information about the organization? How do marketers build a brand reputation without a visual identity? How do companies plan to surface in voice results without SEO or content marketing?
Optimistic case:
In a best-case scenario, organizations will begin to test business models, ask what happens next, and plan for a future that’s less visual and more conversational. But right now, Webb says organizations are building voice applications for Alexa and failing to think about how voice will impact their revenue.
Catastrophic case:
Without a proactive business plan, organizations could lose control of the media landscape. Nine organizations — groups like Facebook and Google — would control the revenue opportunities for news organizations and the advertising channels for other businesses. Without trusted news sources, fake news could thrive, possibly increasing the risk of global turmoil.
One action you can take today:
Prepare for the future by observing the voice search habits of a three-year-old. Children who can’t type or read are using their parents’ smartphones and tablets with the help of voice assistants. The head of design for Google Search and Assistant, Hector Ouilhet, uses the interactions between his daughter and Google’s voice search to understand how the technology should evolve to meet user needs.
2. The importance of the open web
The current atmosphere of fake news combined with concerns about privacy, monopolies, free speech, and automation will drive governments to regulate how these platforms can be used to share information. Webb and others predict that this will result in a “splinternet” with each country having varied access to news and information.
Optimistic Case:
One way to avoid this future is for organizations to advocate for better news and information practices, such as verification for trusted sources of news and information, Webb says. This could cut down on the rise of fake news, ease the distrust that audiences are already feeling toward media and other institutions, and decrease the pressure for governments to regulate access.
Catastrophic Case:
Without these regulations, communicators could spend more time customizing content approaches, studying the legalities of online distribution, and contextualizing the news environment in places where they want to advertise or share information. The proliferation of systems will be difficult to manage and thus have a higher risk of cyberattacks. In this environment, there is greater potential for widespread misinformation campaigns, says Webb.
One action you can take today:
Use this study of the most trusted news sources in 2017 to shape your approach to earning the public’s trust. In an analysis of the most common three-word phrases used to describe sources, the researchers found that the most credible reporting showed multiple sides of a story or was shared by multiple news organizations.
3. Computer recognition gets eerily accurate
Platforms like Snapchat and Instagram are already using visual recognition technologies to create photo filters that interact with people and objects in the real world.
“Visual computing allows us to do things like recognize and interpret human health, emotion, and characteristics,” Webb says.
This technology has the potential to be creepy — for example, some cities in China have used visual recognition to call out jaywalkers — but it can also be useful. In the future, communicators may be able to use recognition technologies to customize experiences for their audiences.
Optimistic Case:
More organizations use visual computing data to create and distribute stories in unique ways. These groups recognize the risks of cognitive bias and establish procedures to avoid inadvertently putting others at a disadvantage.
Catastrophic Case:
The worst-case scenario is nearly the opposite, with people and organizations negatively impacted by the decisions of algorithms and many dealing with what Webb calls “digital graffiti” — malicious digital content created by bad actors and overlaid onto real-world settings through augmented reality.
One action you can take today:
Play with Google’s Teachable Machine. It’s a demo that illustrates how artificial intelligence can learn from images. You train the machine, and watch it learn. You’ll come away with an understanding of visual identification and machine learning. Train the machine accurately and you can see the benefits of AI, but mislead the machine, and you can begin to understand concerns about algorithmic biases.
Become adapters, not adopters
The key to preparing for these technologies is to become early adapters, rather than early adopters, Webb says. “I don’t want you to go out and find all of the latest, coolest tech,” she says, “… I want you to start thinking in a different way. I want everybody to start taking incremental actions on trends each and every day.” We hope the exercises we’ve shared here will help you begin.
With contributions from Liza Kaufman Hogan, director of Atlantic Media Strategies’ editorial team.
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