Our Third COVID Surge in Nine Months is Ahead — What Does That Mean?
I’ve been posting long-form updates about COVID risks on Post.news, but alas, that platform is shuttering. So, I will bring my periodic updates about the risks of COVID-19 here to Medium, for those who care.
I thought we might make it through summer without another surge, but based on the rise of new COVID variants, experts predict we’ll see our third surge in nine months in the weeks ahead. It’ll probably be a moderate one (given warmer, summer weather), but we’re likely to see COVID infections (as measured in wastewater) rise 40% or more in the coming month. (A UK surge seems to be a couple of weeks ahead of the US.)
When people say COVID is seasonal, I think they think it’s surging once a year in winter, not every three months. But, we have seen surges of infections caused by new variants in August/September, December/January, and now very likely in April and May.
Why is this happening? Look around at your social feeds. People seem to be in a competition for who can most frequently be in the most crowded spaces. Pretending things are as safe as they were in 2019 is leading to higher transmission, which feeds more viral mutation. There is still a chance a new and more dangerous COVID variant could develop, and if it does, it’ll be our fault because so many are doing absolutely nothing to decrease personal or collective risks.
While the risks from this spring surge should be fairly modest, there are warning signs in the longer term:
Long COVID is Rising
The first warning sign is that the number of people suffering from Long COVID is rising in 2024. According to the US Census Pulse Survey, the number of people currently experiencing Long COVID is at its highest point in 18 months, with 6.9% of American adults reporting Long COVID symptoms. Moreover, one of every 59 adults is experiencing significant activity limitations due to Long COVID, which is also the highest in 18 months. Pretending COVID is gone is resulting in millions suffering from chronic health problems.
Our Lulls Between Surges Are Not Declining As In the Past
The second warning sign is that our low points are getting less low each year. The lowest periods each year based on wastewater monitoring have been:
2021: May: 40 copies/ml
2022: March: 111 copies/ml
2023: June: 165 copies/ml
2024 so far: 279 copies/ml (We could drop a little lower before this next surge causes a rise, but probably not much lower.)
Most of us are doing the equivalent of driving drunk. Sure, the risk of doing so once might not be great, but the risk of doing it every weekend accumulates into a grave risk factor. And, just like driving drunk, our unwillingness to adjust to COVID affects others’ health and wellbeing, not just our own.
If we continue to ignore COVID and encourage mutation, and if reinfections continue to increase the risk of Long COVID and other health difficulties, the years ahead will be difficult ones for many. They won’t be “normal post-pandemic” years, but years marked with rising illness, declining health, and increasing disability. And with growing evidence that infections damage brains, hearts, reproductive organs, immune systems, and other parts of our body, we should all be taking a bit more caution. (I maintain a spreadsheet to track studies on the longer-term risks of COVID infections, and my spreadsheet is approaching 600 studies.)
I believe people want to be appropriately cautious but are not being informed of the risks. For example, a recent survey found two-thirds of people would NOT be comfortable socializing or working indoors with someone infected with COVID. That’s smart — only right now, any office, restaurant, or event with more than 100 people is likely to have someone infectious with COVID. Essentially, most are doing things that would make them uncomfortable without even knowing it.
Be aware of risks, make smart decision, be healthy, and enjoy life. Make decisions that reduce your risks, and be the reason those around you stay healthy.