The Future of Retail Over The Next Five Years, with Marni Shapiro, Founding Partner of The Retail Tracker

By Aaron Weiner

I had the pleasure of interviewing Marni Shapiro Founding Partner of The Retail Tracker. Marni started her career in fashion and retail before moving to Wall Street to analyze Retail and Consumer stocks and eventually consult with retailers. She and her partner formed The Retail Tracker in 2006 and they have built a reputation for being early to consumer and retail trends, identifying significant shifts in the market and having strong opinions. She is on the advisory Board of four start-ups and has consulted with some of the largest retailers.

Thank you so much for joining us! Can you tell us a story about what brought you to this specific career path?

Sure, it was not strategic plan. I went to work on Seventh Avenue after college because I loved fashion. After two years, while I loved the business, I wasn’t sure I was interested in sales and I could see how the changes in the business were making things more challenging. I went to business school and earned an MBA in Corporate Finance and went to work as an research analyst following retail stocks. This made sense since I knew the business well. My partner and I formed The Retail Tracker over a decade ago at the behest of our clients who were looking for more bespoke research and a better business relationship than was available at the large Wall Street firms. Since that time our business has evolved from just stock analysis to consulting, work with private equity firms and advisory work.

Can you share the most interesting story that happened to you since you started your career?

I do not know if this is the most interesting but it is something that stuck in my mind and that I have referenced for years. Many years ago I was in a meeting with Michael Weiss, then CEO of Express. We were talking about brands and how brands are known for certain things and the customer looks for these things. He used the example of Campbell’s Soup and how even if tomato soup was out of favor Campbell’s had to have it on the shelf. It was their brand. To me this was about brand DNA something I talk about regularly to this day. Nike should always having great basketball shoes and Timberland should never sell heels.

Can you share a story about the funniest mistake you made when you were first starting? Can you tell us what lesson you learned from that?

Oh there are so many but one that sticks out was many years ago we were in a meeting at Gap brand with Mickey Drexler and Marka Hansen. They were showing us the product line and highlighting their best selling brand new boot-cut jeans. I made the mistake of opening my mouth and asking a seemingly innocuous question~ If this is your number one style in denim and this (referencing a black stretch fabric) is your number one non-denim fabric, why don’t you make this style is that fabric? This didn’t go so well, Mickey was not happy with Marka and I suspect at the time Marka was not happy with me. I would love to say I have learned to hold my tongue but the reality is, I’m still working on that.

What do you think makes your company stand out? Can you share a story?

I think that depends on who you ask. Retailers would say we stand out for our honesty, sometimes brutal, our love of the retail business, understanding of the consumer and thinking like the consumer. They would be thankful or annoyed by the fact that I am always bringing them ideas and maybe challenging them at times. I was once riding the escalator with department store executives and they asked about a brand that was not selling well. It was a good brand but I pointed out it was on the wrong side of the escalator. This seemed very obvious to me, but to them they were focused on the adjacencies and product itself. They moved the brand on the floor and sales improved. Our financial clients would also note our honesty and understanding of the industry as well as our ability to see trends before they really materially change retail trends. Many years ago when the selfie camera came on the scene I quickly realized this would change everything and not the just social aspect, who could have predicted SnapChat, but the fact that every women would be walking around with her own personal paparazzi. We were very early to the beauty trend and even coined the term “Instageneration.” Beauty stocks have generally done very well.

Which tips would you recommend to your colleagues in your industry to help them to thrive and not “burn out”?

Never feel like you have mastered your job. I read constantly, I am a permanent student and I learn things that are relevant to retail and the consumer in the most unlikely places. Remain curious about the consumer and you will not get bored. If you feel burned out… go shopping of course.

None of us are able to achieve success without some help along the way. Is there a particular person who you are grateful towards who helped get you to where you are? Can you share a story?

My partner Mark. I leaped from Fashion Avenue to Wall Street and when I did this it was not a usual change. He took a chance because he felt he needed a merchant to round out his team. That was 23 years ago. We are now partners and we balance each other out~ I am essentially “the creative” and he is the business person.

Are you working on any exciting projects now?

Several, always. First of all it’s back to school so a whole new season is always exciting. However, we are working with several start-ups which is very interesting and fun and I have joined the board of the Michigan Fashion and Media Summit which is an advisory board at my alma-mater (University of Michigan) focused on inspiring and educating the next generation of fashion leaders, something the industry really needs to do.

How have you used your success to bring goodness to the world?

I’m not sure if my career in fashion has been the direct conduit to the good I bring to the world. I believe strongly in education and as a result I have held executive board positions for the last 16 years at several schools. I have connected endless people, helped endless others with careers, jobs and even their businesses. I am not sure this is a result of any success I have had but I am proud of this work.

Can you share 5 examples of how retail companies will be adjusting over the next five years to the new ways that consumers like to shop?

1. Generation Z will rattle the cage. Already the media has pegged them as mall shoppers and spenders but we only know so much about them. They will be more digital, more social and at the same time could surprise us by being more private as they tire of their complete lack of privacy. This could challenge some retailers and marketing efforts. They will quickly tire of things that are just “for the Gram.”
2. We should not be using credit cards to swipe. A simple example would be Whole Foods today~ when you check out they scan your Prime code from your app yet you still have to swipe a card. This step should be eliminated. When you provide a retailer with your loyalty information they should ring you and a receipt will be on your account when you login without ever having to reach in for a piece of plastic or taking a piece of paper.
3. Stores will shift to being more about showrooming the brand and vision of its creators which could include options not obvious today and these stores will also function like mini-warehouses in the back. Clicks and bricks will gain importance as consumers already expect this convenience. The same way Disney has the Star Wars franchise to make movies but integrate the franchise into its parks, retailers will begin to think differently about how they sell and what their brand means.
4. Two splits will accelerate in the retail world. The brand split: Good brands will continue to grow social marketing and engagement and consumers will continue to learn about new brands through social media. Other brands that lack presence and social commerce will continue to struggle. The Shopping Split: Consumers will continue to shift their purchasing of “need to have” items (paper towels, dish soap, school uniforms) online but will take pleasure in shopping for “want to have” items in stores with fun environments and brand experiences.
5. The retailer or brand won’t always be doing the selling. Resale will continue to grow as the stigma has faded and people look to monetize their closets. Peer to peer like we see on Real Real, Poshmark, Depop and any number of locally run social media resale accounts will continue to grow and will include a vehicle for just about anyone to get compensated for influencing the purchase of an item. This will change marketing and how brands sell.

You are a person of great influence. If you could start a movement that would bring the most amount of good to the most amount of people, what would that be? You never know what your idea can trigger.

Read everything often and constantly~ learning is never done. I would add the retail movement I would start would be simple: Start by respecting your customer. There are times I walk into a store and I can almost feel the contempt the designer or merchant has for the customer. Success starts and ends with respect.

How can our readers follow you on social media?

On Instagram @retail.tracker

This was very inspiring. Thank you so much for joining us