Trump and the Temperature Test

What the media tells us, and what we perceive

Imagine you’re in a foreign country for the first time. You step outside of an Airbnb house you’re staying in for your time in this country, and get a sense of your surroundings. It looks like nothing you’ve ever seen before. All around you is entirely unfamiliar terrain.

You step inside the house and a friend asks you the temperature outside. You think for a minute, and say maybe 72 degrees. You turn on the TV and see it’s the local news, and it happens to be the weather for your exact location. For the sake of this hypothetical, we must suspend disbelief so that you happen to be in a foreign country that both has an English-speaking newscast as well as one that is discussing weather in terms of Fahrenheit.

The meteorologist is giving the weather report. The question is — what could he say the temperature is outside your exact location that would be believable? Your guess is 72 degrees — if he says 75 degrees, or 68 degrees, this is obviously a believable discrepancy. But keep in mind how unfamiliar you are with this location. Because of that, perhaps your biological thermometer is thrown off a bit. Would you accept it if the meteorologist said it was 81 degrees outside, or 62 degrees? Probably. Maybe even further — 55 degrees, or 85 degrees.

Your range of acceptable deviation from your own perception is widened due to a variety of factors: how unfamiliar you are with this country, the fact that you are not an expert (like the person on your television), the reality that temperature is not something you can say with certainty ever, even in your most comfortable setting.

So, in this scenario, you are watching the broadcast, and the meteorologist reports the temperature outside your exact location is 38 degrees. You check with your friend. This is in Fahrenheit, right? Yes, says your friend. You keep watching. 38 degrees, the meteorologist says again.

This discrepancy falls far outside the range of acceptable deviation. This goes from feeling surprised at how incorrect you were, maybe if the deviation was in the range of 15–20 degrees, to a difference of 34 degrees, and suddenly being keenly aware that the meteorologist on TV is actually the one who must be incorrect.

In fact, in this scenario, it might be the case where, rather than feel less sure of your original perception, you are in fact now MORE sure of it — digging in your heels against this outrageous lie being told, that has no bearing in the reality of the situation.

This is the Temperature Test, and it relates to our media reality in the era of President Trump. I have often thought about why so much of the news, specifically TV news, feels like it exists in an unfamiliar bubble, misaligned with a reality of life in much of the country, happening in communities outside the Acela Corridor of New York and Washington, DC.

Loss of faith in the media is not new. It did not begin with the election of Donald Trump, or his 2015 and 2016 campaign. In fact, I’ve said Trump is the effect of negative media perception, not the cause. Various surveys and polls have backed this up, like a recent one that found people thought the media was dividing America more than Trump.

Many people have urged us not to “normalize” President Trump or this moment. I think they are correct that this is not a “normal” moment and Trump is not a “normal” president. Many people who voted for Donald Trump would agree with that sentiment — in fact, the lack of “normalization” is precisely the reason he was able to garner as much support as he received in the primary and then the general election.

This is an unfamiliar moment for all — some relish in this oddity, while others are outright terrified by it. Some have seemingly lost their moral compass to join with what they perceive as a lack of morality in the oval office, while others have carved out a nuanced perspective.

And it is this unfamiliarity that allows for a greater acceptable deviation in the Temperature Test. Because of this lack of normalcy, the average citizen outside the media is perfectly capable of understanding that the tone of the coverage of what is reality in this Trump moment is going to differ with their own perceptions, both positively and negatively.

But that will only go so far. There is a breaking point. The question of “are things really as bad as the media is making it seem?” is one that will begin to enter the consciousness. When supposed objective news outlets report a temperature far outside what is perceived as reality, the consumer of that news will end up becoming more sure that the misperception is not coming from themselves, but from the “expert.”

Are there actual facts that Trump is tearing at the country’s moral fabric, or undermining our democracy (outside of the incessant stream of outrageous tweets he sends)? Or is it just the temperature some feel? Feeling a temperature, as a citizen, is one thing — it’s another for the “experts” to seemingly stoke these feelings with conjecture and an ominous tone that outweighs objectivity.

And that’s what’s happening here with Trump. On one hand, some outlets are reporting the Trump presidency as an outsized positive good. This is causing some to turn away and question that reality. But there are many others who see some outlets reporting a negative “temperature” — individuals who have previously viewed news outlets as fair and objective. This reporting “temperature” far outside their perceived reality leads to rejection, but further, a sense of being even MORE sure of their own perceptions.

Donald Trump is unfamiliar terrain. He is an unfamiliar, abnormal president. His own supporters would agree with that. But is he uniquely horrible, as supposed objective news outlets would try to convince their viewers through explicit or implicit programming decisions? Through the way their reporters would portray this moment? Through the positioning of various rapid-fire comments, or tweets?

People are smart. They may not be human thermometers. They know what they don’t know, and are willing to accept what others tell them as truth, and learn. To a point.

But even in unfamiliar times, Americans can get a sense of the way things are based on comparing it to what they are familiar with. And if news coverage doesn’t pass the Temperature Test in this Trump Era, they’re going to lose trust. And rightfully so.