A Short Intro About Nearly [all] AV-Things

Excerpt from the Introduction:

Surely, we’ve come a long way from only a couple of years ago when AV skeptics prevailed. Those who adamantly expected the AV [autonomous vehicles] buzz to fade away. In hopes of another internet-like bubble, detractors awaited for the ‘AV-bubble’ to burst. How- ever, as OEMs (Original Equipment Manufacturers), venture capitalists, and tech giants invested, acquired, and structured their organizations with AVs in mind, there was no longer any doubt of a self-driving future.

Today, most of the population either knows or has heard about the topic. We have the common public, you and me, who have become aware via the influx of driverless car-re- lated incidents or from the increasing media coverage on the development of the technology and fleet deployment. On the other hand, you have the technologists. Those hired to make AVs happen, arduously developing high definition 3D maps, more reliable perception stacks (the brains of the car), and longer range sensor systems.

And while technologists care about technology, business people care about building a sustainable and marketable product. The MBAs (master in business administration), BDs (business developers) and CFOs (chief financial officers) understand that AVs will drive the transportation revolution. However, thinking long term, the real question remains, how will AVs drive my future cash flows forward? How will these high-tech companies be able to sustain the millions of dollars going into R&D, high-tech labor, and the training of a machine learning-centered workforce?

In order to answer such pressing questions, in the following pages I plan to lay the foundation of the AV landscape with these points in mind:

• Technology is still being developed and once rolled-out it won’t be perfect but rather expect an MVP (minimum viable product).
• Policy makers and the market will be playing push and pull until certain regulations (Federal vs. State) come into place.
• Companies will pugnaciously keep on buying and selling each other out to seek a competitive edge.
• AVs will be very advanced machines, beautiful pieces of engineering work. However, their standalone value will be almost null unless there is some commercialization around it.

The book is organized across four major forces that will aid in the disruption and re-imagination of existing industry business models. Also, it’ll serve to guide you through the transformation in business models that autonomous vehicles will enable. Part 1 is for the technologist in me, Part 2 for the business woman (and man), Part 3 for the entrepreneur and Part 4 for the concerned citizen:

TECHNOLOGY FORCES: Autonomous technology and how this trend truly sits at the intersection of many technology tsunamis (Part 1)

COMPETITION FORCES: Key players and the power dynamics of self-identity (Part 3)

REVENUE FORCES: New Business Models and the trans- formative forces behind monetization (Part 2)

PUBLIC POLICY FORCES: Lessons from the past, opportunities of the present, and pathways to the future (Part 4)

Whether you are in the industry already or looking in from the outside for the inevitable disruptions that will emerge, this book will help you understand what’s happening in the automotive industry and what’s to come.

Business models pertain to the way passengers will interact with the machines, the many opportunities that will arise once the car is connected to its surroundings and other cars, as well as the different use cases identified leveraging diverse functional car designs.

As technology is further developing, all the stakeholders (incumbent and new entrants) need to be cognizant of what revenue models will they pursue. We already see partner- ships being built, securing a position on the market. Companies may even try to experiment with different business cases and partnerships in order to diversify their risk. Everybody is hedging their bets (as my b-school finance professor would say) to ensure they at least one of their commercialization strategies takes first place.

March 20, 2018 was a tragic day for one woman [Uber crash], but it also may have made clear that the revolution that has been quietly happening in the shadows has begun.

And this revolution has no driver.


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A Short Intro About Nearly [all] AV-Things

Somebody asked me last week, what about this Autonomousity title? It’s hard to pronounce, what does it mean?

Autonomousity sprung from a collision between autonomous vehicles and my curiosity for them. A lot has already been said about self-driving cars. We’ve established that they are here to stay, the technology-although not perfect-continues to evolve. With large investments being made by OEMs and tech companies, a future without a human driver starts to shape up. We’ve overcome the sci-fi hype, embraced the real obstacles ahead, and unfortunately, yes, people have gotten hurt. Yet, we persevere and continue to roll self-driving pilots out on the streets (hopefully making them safer).

But what happens next? How do we get over the shiny-but-not-commercial ‘hump’? As Malcom Gladwell would say, how do we reach the consumer adoption tipping point? These core questions and powerful dynamics inspired me to write this ‘hard-to-pronounce’ book.

We’re at a point where the path towards self-driving seems to clear up, from a technology stand. Conversely, the path towards commercialization is a bit trickier to visualize. It’s still uncertain, unregulated. Nonetheless, organizations have taken a huge leap of ‘faith’ towards the future and are hedging their mobility bets, omni-directionally.

These human-led phenomena progressively start to converge into a business need to monetize. Innovation is important but so is the bottom line. No matter the size, 100,000-employee OEM or a 3-people startup, in order to survive the competitive atmosphere, one must differentiate. The risk factor might not compare between a big and small venture. Nevertheless, there’s an urgency to find a business model that’s ‘sticky’ among consumers, the non-drivers.

As a curious citizen and an engineer, I’ve absorbed so much of the knowledge, experience and hardware (software too!) that lives and breathes all around me in Silicon Valley. And those of my interviewees in Detroit and Washington DC didn’t stay behind either. The eye-opening insights from data scientists, VPs of Artificial Intelligence, OEM executives, startup founders/visionaries, have helped me understand the forces, that, like gravity, pulls us towards the vortex of this next mobility transformation.

It’s indeed a somewhat fragile technology and business case. One that is still in prototype mode. However, when in the past decades has one seen such accelerated revolution in two key societal industries, automotive and transportation?

Over the next few weeks, I’ll be sharing pieces of my book, Autonomousity: Autonomous Vehicles & Emerging Business Models, in this blog series. I hope it raises your interest and curiosity and inspires you to get your own copy: https://www.amazon.com/dp/B07QDM7HTX

I’d love to continue the conversation about self-driving cars! You can either leave a comment in my Medium page or connect with me via email at BejaranoAPaula@gmail.com or LinkedIn.