Aviation 4.0: The Age of Democratized Aerial Mobility
We have come a long way since the first powered, sustained, and controlled flight of a heavier-than-air aircraft which took place on that gusty and freezing North Carolina morning of December 17, 1903. The Wright Brothers, building on their predecessors with regards to basic knowledge in aircraft design, aerodynamics, and mechanics, commenced the “pioneer era of aviation” and transformed the discipline from a niche hobby to an established field with many enthusiasts, firms, and governments competing with each other for superiority. Believe it or not, today’s era with the emergence of Urban Air Mobility (UAM), also incorrectly known as “flying cars” by the public, feels very similar to the earliest days of powered aviation of the Santos-Dumonts, Farmans, Blériots, Curtisses, Fokkers, and the Bristols, than it is to the last 25–30 years. The amount of initial skepticism faced by these pathfinders is also comparable to the levels we see in the current UAM space. On the other hand, from an innovation and startup entry perspective, the pace and density of the advancement of knowledge in UAM are mind-boggling with almost a new company and vehicle design entering the field everyday. Therefore, it is only logical to call our current era the next revolution in aerial transport: “Aviation 4.0”.
Before we deep-dive into today’s trend of aerial mobility, it is important to define the stages of aviation technology categorized with respect to the pace of innovation, the density of company entry, and the overall excitement perceived by the general public.
Aviation 1.0: The Human Dream Becomes True
Aviation 1.0 can be defined as the period between the first powered flight (1903) and the advent of the first commercial airliner that was operated on a scheduled international route, the Airco DH.16 (1919) between London and Paris. This period of immense innovation in aeronautics was fueled by two main forces: the excitement created by the endless opportunities offered by this novel technology and the world preparing for “the war to end all wars”. In this era of ferment when various design configurations had been popping up and crashing like individual drops in a heavy thunderstorm, several major breakthroughs have been made. Firstly, the overall aircraft configuration was frozen by none other than the Frenchman who became the first to fly across the English Channel, Louis Blériot. His significant advancements in flight control design and the relative sizes of the main wing, tail, and anything in between — demonstrated in his Blériot VIII — became the basis of today’s fundamental airplane configuration. Secondly, the advancements in engine technology and construction was swift enough to propel the performance of aircraft at a magnificent speed: in a matter of 4 years between 1909 and 1913, the speed, altitude, and distance records were increased from 47.82 mph to 126.67 mph, 1,486 ft to 20,079 ft, and 145.53 mi to 634.54 mi, respectively. Considering the uncertainty in aircraft technology and the tools & equipment available to engineers at the time, such rapid innovation was outstanding even by today’s standards.
Nevertheless, Aviation 1.0 was an age when the joy and freedom of flight were restricted to a fortunate few “innovators” comprising high net-worth individuals and military & government officials whereas the rest of the public were mere observers and admirers of “Those Magnificent Men in Their Flying Machines”. This sweep of progress and excitement was reflected in the first-ever aviation gatherings such as the Grande Semaine d’Aviation de la Champagne in 1909, which attracted 500,000 visitors, and the Gordon Bennett Trophy, which created a sense of competition and urgency both among the aeronauts and the public, accelerating the progress in aircraft performance further.
As with many discontinuities in technology, whether the invention of the automobile, the personal computer, or blockchain, the momentum of innovation during the latter stages rarely equals the fierce thrust of the early days. Then, what was the adjacent possible next step in aeronautical technology, the next momentum shift that again captured the imaginations of a whole generation?
Aviation 2.0: The Advent of Commercial Air Travel Across Borders
Encompassing the “Golden Age of Aviation”, Aviation 2.0 can be defined as the era of the birth of the airliner industry which brought with it the increased freedom of movement of people in a transnational context. It begins with the first scheduled international operations by Aircraft Transport and Travel Limited in 1919 and ends with the introduction of the world’s first commercial jet airliner in 1952, the de Havilland DH 106 Comet — the advent of the Jet Age. This was a time when airplane sizes and performance were increasing, new civil industries around airplane manufacturing were forming, and innovative designs were being introduced to the aeronautical space. Since Europe was destined to lead aviation and air travel until at least the post-WWII era, it was the European airlines that first capitalized on this opportunity. The introduction of KLM in 1919 — the oldest continuously operating airline in the world — with the first route between London and Amsterdam, the formation of Imperial Airways in 1924 that connected the whole British Empire, and the coming of Deutsche Luft Hansa in 1926 forming the largest commercial airline network in Europe established these companies as flag carriers with their respectable legacy still continuing today.
The creation of these airlines opened up aviation to the crème de la crème of society i.e. the early adopters of commercial aircraft technology, who were not merely adventurers and “tech aficionados” but individuals that had significant purchasing power. Never mind how expensive air travel was in the 20s! In the mid-30s, one could buy a ticket worth £180 (£12,512 in 2018 Sterling) from London to Singapore and expect to travel for 8 days, stopping at 22 different cities along the 8,458-mile route. Similarly, a commercial flight from England to Australia in 1938 would cost £340 (£22,227 in 2018 Sterling), far out of reach for most people in the hierarchy of interbellum society. Therefore, transoceanic ships were still largely popular until the arrival of the Jet Age as the scale and economics such a large ship would provide simply were not sufficient to make airline seats commoditized as we see today. Even flying boats such as the Boeing 314 Clipper which had a capacity of 74 passengers and a transatlantic range did not provide competitive economies of scale.
The gradual increase in passenger capacity, range, engine power, and progress in aerodynamics and materials, led to the advent of capable aircraft that elevated the air travel experience and opened up new routes. The introduction of the legendary Douglas DC-3 in 1936 was the first airliner that was profitable from passenger service alone without government subsidies. In other words, the age of airlines as a profitable and self-sustaining business had begun!
Aviation 3.0: The Jet Age and Cost Innovation in Travel
The development of the modern jet engine in the 30s by Sir Frank Whittle and its subsequent use on the first commercial jetliner in 1952, the de Havilland Comet, marks the beginning of an era when true transatlantic and transcontinental travel was made possible as a fast and reliable mode of transportation. The advent of the Boeing 707 in 1958 — coincidentally the year when Frank Sinatra’s “Come Fly With Me” reached #1 on the charts for five weeks — was a milestone in global transportation for carrying for the first time more passengers by air between Europe and North America than by ocean liners which dominated the route since 1818. This was a time when people started to see the world as a 3-dimensional arena where the skies provided the fastest means yet in embarking on a business or pleasure trip across borders. That being said, how accessible was air travel to all strata of society in this period? If we look at the mid-50s at Trans World Airlines, we see that an airfare from New York City to London cost $290 which is $2,732 by 2018 USD. Comparatively, one can fly the same route today for $569 using Primera Air as a use-case, which indicates around 80% reduction from 1955. If the purchasing power of an average U.S. citizen is taken into account, the 1955 fare is about 5% of their salary. Today, this number is closer to 1%. Therefore, the coming of the Jet Age was not able to fully democratize the skies to the average traveler in the first 30 years or so of the introduction of jetliners.
So why and when did airline ticket prices decrease significantly that flying became a commodity with intense competition between companies and ruthless flyers with steep price sensitivity? From a United States perspective, one of the primary forces behind this was the Airline Deregulation Act of 1978 which removed federal government control over routes, fares, and airline startups, bringing true competition and capitalism to air travel. The introduction of a free market allowed new entrants to pop up all over the country, unleashing fierce price competition that we still see today.
Nevertheless, this was a win-win-lose situation. Although the differentiation strategy of the airlines shifted from offering quality to reducing cost (and therefore inconveniences such as unbearable leg room), consumers generally benefited from the decrease in ticket prices on an average of 50% from 1979 to 2011. It can be argued that it was a win situation for the government as well, allowing the federals to direct valuable sources concentrating on safety rather than the economics of the industry. Lastly, it was a lose-situation for the airlines — at least in the short/mid-term — as it squeezed average profit margins rapidly, forcing airlines to find creative ways in reducing cost and aircraft manufacturers to target their designs in reducing the cost per seat mile of their airplanes. From an innovation perspective, it was a victory for Schumpeter’s creative destruction as incredible progress has been made in materials, engine efficiency, maintenance, turnaround times, and overall operational optimization.
The second force that was also intricately connected to the first was the innovations from an aeronautical design perspective. There have been great advances in cost innovation in the aircraft manufacturing industry from both a product and process standpoint. The gradual phase-out of the turbojet and the advent of high-bypass turbofans in the late 60s and 70s greatly reduced fuel consumption, paving the way for more favourable economics. Similarly, the introduction of fly-by-wire control systems which replaced mechanical ones led to considerable weight savings, making aircraft more efficient to fly. More recently, the utilization of composite materials exemplified in the wonderful Boeing 787 Dreamliner and the Airbus A350 XWB extracted more and more weight from the airliners, allowing aircraft to be more efficient and financially solid to operate.
Although this is nowhere near a complete list of all the innovations that took place since the dawn of the Jet Age, it can be observed that the overall design configuration or the passenger use-case of the airliner have more or less stayed constant. Without much architectural innovation in this space, much of the progress has been made towards the “back-end” systems, mainly targeting efficiency. In other words, since the 50s, the traveler has been exposed to a similar experience and qualitative benefit one gets from flying: similar routes, improved travel times, onboard entertainment, higher safety standards, quieter cabin, and so on. The individual’s interaction with flight itself and the reason for flying has not changed for almost 70 years. The world and the aeronautics community have been yearning for another revolution that would again radically transform the way we live our lives in conjunction with aviation technology.
The where, the when, and the how of our interaction with flight is on a rapid stream of advancement that will radically change the way we live in urban configurations, our architecture of our cities, and the future of this planet from a sustainability perspective. That revolution is on our doorstep and goes by the many names of flying cars, air taxis, personal air vehicles (PAVs), electric vertical take-off and landing (eVTOLs) vehicles, and finally, Urban Air Mobility.
Aviation 4.0: The True Democratization of Flight
The use-case of air travel, in general, have been static for way too long — from airport to airport with high inconvenience to the passenger and the dystopia of the absence of a real inter-modal transportation network. From the early 50s to the 2010s, why has aviation technology solely revolutionized our links between cities and countries but not cities themselves as semi-closed systems?
Aviation 4.0 may be the answer to many of our problems that we face in and around our cities: congestion, air & noise pollution, reduction of an individual’s available quality time, poor urban planning that prioritizes cars, urban high- and low-density sprawls, “unwalkable” streets, and our reliance on a single mode of transportation in a specific urban setting. This will not only be the introduction of a technology that will merely create a seamless and inter-connected travel experience for the next generation — but from a pure aviation enthusiast perspective — it will finally enable the masses to taste the joy of flight and incorporate the city as a 3-dimensional environment in their daily lives. The architectural revolution in 3D took place in the late 19th century with the arrival of skyscrapers. Why did urban transportation take so long to materialize when it obviously was the adjacent possible step?
There are a few important reasons for this latency in Urban Air Mobility. The first one is noise. Although our cities utilize helicopters for transport, this is a very niche market and mainly reserved for business executives, high net-worth individuals, air medical services, and news agencies. The reason that helicopters have not been massively deployed as another mode of public transportation is due to the noise generated by the piston or turboshaft engine and the large blades that create a lot of vibration. For example, a Robinson R44 four-seater helicopter generates 87 dB of noise at 250 ft altitude. In comparison, a medium-sized truck traveling at speeds of 35–55 mph generates 75–80 dB at 50 ft distance. The goal is to reduce the noise of an eVTOL below 67 dB at 250 ft above ground level, comparable to a Prius at 25 ft driving by at 35 mph, according to Uber Elevate’s white paper. This level of noise for a flying object is not possible with today’s helicopter technology unless the engine is fully-electric and the rotor blades are smaller in diameter compared to a traditional chopper.
Secondly, in order to develop vehicles that are acceptable by the public in terms of noise, pollution, and operational cost, it is essential to progress in battery technology first as it is the main enabler of UAM vehicles. Being quiet, zero-emission operationally, and much more efficient than internal combustion and turboshaft engines, the above criteria are made possible by the arrival of high energy and power density battery packs. Since weight is one of the primary constraints in any aircraft design, according to Uber Elevate it is essential to achieve energy densities of 300 Wh/kg to minimize weight and optimize the aircraft performance necessary for a profitable business case (current lithium-ion battery technology is at best at 265 Wh/kg but gradually increasing). As of the 2018 Uber Elevate Summit that took place in Los Angeles, California, the optimal aircraft performance is a mission of 60 miles, 150 mph cruising speed, and 1 pilot plus 4 passengers. Thus, advancement in batteries as an enabling technology is essential in materializing the dream of UAM in the early 2020s as only now we see the convergence of requirements and technology coming together to align in harmony.
With the main constraints on this technology explained, it is time to look at who the current players in the field of UAM are that seem promising to make this science-fiction a science-fact. In the centre of it all is the ride-hailing company Uber and with its Elevate initiative, it aims to transform itself from a ground ride-hailing firm to one that provides Mobility-as-a-Service (MaaS) in an inter-modal context. In other words, it aims to be the service provider that seamlessly integrates all modes of transportation on one’s route to minimize waiting times between, let’s say, changing from underground to an air taxi, and optimize the interaction between all MaaS vehicles in a city. Uber Elevate aims to bring together many stakeholders in the industry comprising vehicle manufacturers (e.g. EmbraerX, Pipistrel, Aurora Flight Sciences), battery manufacturers (e.g. Siemens), air traffic management (ATM) companies and institutions (e.g. AirMap, FAA, NATS), infrastructure providers (e.g. architecture companies), regulation and policy makers (e.g. Secretary of Transportation, mayors, city councils), and the rest of the public in order to accelerate the aggressive deadline of launching pilot cases in 2020 and fully operational service by 2023.
Although the timeline is tight, especially for a technology that bears many uncertainties in terms of engineering, public perception, safety, and economics, there is a high density of initiatives and accomplishments happening every single moment. It is overwhelming, even for industry experts, to keep up with the new designs, progress, startups, and stakeholders that enter the UAM space. There are at least 25+ companies — never mind the ones that still have not unveiled their initiatives — that have dedicated projects with regards to building an eVTOL. Every day, it seems, that a new startup is popping up, not just in the U.S. or Europe but countries such as China, Australia, and Russia as well. However, with Uber currently being at the core of the future of UAM, is it sufficient to have a private company with private interests to control the generation and flow of information between stakeholders and ultimately deciding the future of urban mobility? As announced at the Uber Elevate Summit 2018, Uber partnered up with 5 aircraft manufacturing companies: Aurora Flight Sciences (Boeing), Karem Aircraft, Pipistrel, EmbraerX, and Bell. With more than 20 other designs out in the field with some of them actually quite promising and may be fitting Uber’s requirements (e.g. Joby S4, Lilium Jet, A³ Vahana (Airbus)), Uber’s philosophy goes against an open-source, open-innovation, and all-accessible knowledge base that needs to bring in all stakeholders including the general public as a forum and facilitate the free movement of information within UAM.
There is a significant networking gap, especially outside the U.S., that would function as an umbrella community and initiative to truly democratize innovations in the eVTOL space. In other words, just a white paper, unveiling of some eCRMs (eVTOL Common Reference Models), a single summit held annually, and critical engineering information only flowing between Uber and Uber’s partners with less inclusivity of the global UAM community is NOT sufficient for the optimal and swift rollout of air taxis not just in the U.S. but in Europe, Asia, Oceania, Africa, and South America as well. Therefore, it is essential for industry professionals in each region and the global scene to come together and establish a community centered on the free flow of information on a regular and uncontained structure. Only then, I believe, that UAM will be possible in the next decade on a mass-scale basis.
This era, Aviation 4.0, is very similar to the “Pioneer Era of Aviation”, Aviation 1.0, when the entrepreneurial spirit was at its climax and progress was being made at a spectacular pace. Therefore, there are many reasons to be optimistic and overly-excited about the prospects that this technology will bring to the lives of many. Remember how the world suddenly became connected and transnational with the advent of Aviation 2.0 and 3.0, transforming global politics, economics, and unleashing intellectual advancement at an unprecedented rate. It was almost as if international air transport was the physical internet of the people, moving back-and-forth intelligence, knowledge, and brainpower that only was exponentially superseded with the advent of the actual internet. Let us sprint forward as the global community as a whole and achieve the unachievable, much like the inventors of powered flight, the jet engine, supersonic airliners, and the digital advancements in the latter years of civil aviation.
“The Future of our Cities is in the Skies!”
