The actual reason: Why the Airbus A380 failed.
First of all, I have to confess that I am one of many fans of this giant aircraft type, specifically magnificent size, smooth landing profile and safety records. However, these factors do not cover the economic side of the design and develop an airliner in the modern era. Bring the fact that aviation meant to be profitable same as other businesses.
Background 1: The air travel model back in the 90s was the spoke-hub model. Airlines collect passengers from smaller airports(spoke) to a large one(hub) with smaller aircraft (such as A320, 737 or similar size with two relatively small engines ). Later dispatch them in a larger airliner (such as 747, A340 or A380 with four engines) to other large airports (hub), and smaller aircraft connect them to the near and small airports(spoke) around. This model challenged by introducing long-range and highly efficient two-engine airliners. These airliners can connect smaller cities directly without passing through hubs (Figure 1: Comparing Spoke-Hub and point to point). This change has a considerable benefit for the passengers. Shorter flight time and bypass the congestion and transfer time on big airports. Also, it has some benefits for airliners as well.
For example, “With only two runways, operating at over 98% of their capacity, Heathrow has little room for more flights, although the increasing use of larger aircraft such as the Airbus A380 will allow some increase in passenger numbers. It is difficult for existing airlines to obtain landing slots to enable them to increase their services from the airport, or for new airlines to start operations.” from Wikipedia. Airlines, specifically new ones, do not need to employ giant airliners for already congested airports like London Heathrow with a limited number of slots to land and take off every day(Figure 2). Essentially, if a 787 can fly nonstop from London to Perth, the demand for passengers connecting to an A380 via Dubai or Singapore will be shrunk. (This is the motivation for Qantas to connect London and Perth directly via new 787s, check project sunrise which aimed to connect London to Sydney directly)
Background 2: ETOPS (twin-engines jets for increasingly extended operations) regulation has changed from 1995. To save technical jargon, ETOPS-120 certification allows a twin-jet airliner to fly in any route within a distance of an alternative airport within 120 minutes (Figure 3). ETOPS-207 (207 minutes distance from the alternative airport) certification covers almost %95 of the earth surface, and A350XWB recently approved for whopping ETOPS-370. Moreover, regulators’ willingness to certify twin-engines jets for increasingly extended operations (ETOPS) time means that they could operate on some routes where four-engines such as the A380, A340 and 747 have previously dominated. The same factor that has seen carriers after another sends the 747s into retirement. The rise of the much more fuel-efficient long-range twin-engine aircraft with higher ETOPS minutes has outdated the four engines need. Although initially, T in ETOPS stands for Twin-engine but recently applied to the four engines as well. 747–8 received ETOPS-330 in 2015, same as 787s. Hence, a twin-engine airliner can do the job the same as a four-engine.
Background 3: Although more available seats in an aeroplane generally mean more profitable business (in theory), it is not easy to regularly fill them for most routes. With COVID19 and recent international travel patterns, selling all seats for a large airliner becomes more difficult than before. Therefore, airlines prefer to use smaller airliners, such as A350s or 787s. A380s have no chance to compete with them. Finding customers on an aircraft with 200 seats is much easier to fill up an aircraft with 500 available seats, assuming profitable on their full capacity.
Background 4: The issue of rolling out highly efficient twin-engine airliners have been addressed before. That is the main reason 747s (same size and close capacity to A380s) have a unique capability to be converted to the freighter version quickly. At the end of the life of being a passenger airliner, 747s will be modified to be a cargo 747, and they can fly for another decade or two. Unfortunately, the A380s have not been designed to be converted to a freighter easily.
So, despite the market changed on the A380 after it was designed, the reality is that the plane was built for all the wrong reasons. It knowingly was aimed at a market that did not exist at the time of its design. Simply put, the A380 was from the day it first flew, designed to be a marketplace loser. It is an extremely honourable failure, but it is a failure.
