Politics and Social Events are coming to Azuro
Azuro’s foundation has always been its tech infrastructure that seamlessly integrates and provides liquidity and oracle solutions for various sports markets in prediction apps. Now, Azuro aims to apply the same principles to political and social events. This move will see Azuro offering markets on a wide range of topics such as presidential elections, social and cultural events, financial and economic metrics, and other major issues. By doing so, Azuro not only diversifies its markets but also taps into the longstanding tradition and ever-growing interest to speculate on the outcomes of global issues.
This strategic shift aligns perfectly with the projections from last year’s research by Bitwise Investments, which indicates that “more than $100 million will be staked in prediction markets as they emerge as a new ‘killer app’ for crypto in 2024”, highlighting the significant potential and rising demand in this sector.
Numbers on political prediction markets
Expanding into political markets will significantly broaden the user base of Azuro-powered apps beyond just sports enthusiasts.
Politics affects everyone, as seen in the universal engagement in the US election campaigns. These campaigns resemble sporting events in their competitive spirit. Plus, they are full of showmanship, with parties splitting into teams, holding rallies, and debating in stadiums while making country-wide tours. This spectacle captures global attention, with people worldwide following and wagering on every step of the process.
According to some estimates, the annual volume in the political predictions market is substantial, reflecting its popularity and profitability. For instance:
- Polymarket alone saw nearly $100 million wagered on the U.S. presidential election, highlighting the platform’s popularity and the market’s potential (CoinDesk).
- PredictIt, one of the largest political prediction markets in the U.S., often sees significant activity. During high-profile events such as presidential elections, the volume can reach millions. For example, during the 2016 presidential election, PredictIt saw over $1 million in its individual markets with daily volumes sometimes reaching tens of thousands (Brookings).
- Betfair reported approximately $277 million traded on the 2016 U.S. presidential elections, marking it as one of the highest volumes for any market in its history (Political Prediction Markets).
Prediction markets as a source of insight
“The wisdom of the crowd” is known since Aristotle’s time as a favourable approach to decision-making and to communal living, in general. In his work “Politics,” Aristotle suggested that a collective group of individuals, even if not each individually excellent, could collectively make better decisions than a single person. This idea has evolved into a statistical method, which relies on the principle that averaging multiple opinions can filter out extreme errors and bring the aggregate result closer to the truth by canceling out biases (SpringerOpen).
Prediction markets not only collect the wisdom of the crowd, but also incentivize people to correct their opinions based on the turns the majority takes in a matter. Even if a poll were taken every hour on the same matter, it still wouldn’t be able to catch up with the fluctuations of the market, which automatically adjusts the odds with each new opinion added to the mix.
As a Microsoft Research economist David Rothschild argues: “I can create a poll that can mimic everything about a prediction market…except markets have a way of incentivizing you to come back at 2 a.m. and update your answer.”
Appealing to the financially-incentivized wisdom of the crowd in search of truth is a solid basis for more accurate forecasts than making traditional polls or asking expert opinions.
Target audience for crypto prediction markets
With an inherenet distruct in the centralized financial intitutions, millennials and Gen Zers constitute the majority of crypto holders, which earned them a title of “the crypto generation”.
While the Gen Zers seem to have been politically aware and active since a pre-school age, millennials have historically been viewed as apolitical, which was often linked to their disillusionment with democracy. But recent trends show a shift. Joining Gen X and Gen Z, millennials are now more politically active, participating in strikes, climate change initiatives, libertarian projects, and other political activities. As they grow older, their engagement in politics increases, along with their financial capacity to participate in prediction markets and other financial instruments.
Azuro’s strategic expansion into political and social prediction markets marks a significant milestone in its development. By leveraging its tech infrastructure and liquidity solutions, Azuro is set to offer diverse markets beyond sports, tapping into the global fascination with political events and social issues. This move not only broadens its user base but also capitalizes on the rising demand for prediction markets, which are increasingly recognized for their potential to provide accurate forecasts through the collective wisdom of the crowd.
As millennials and Gen Z continue to dominate the crypto landscape, their growing political engagement and financial capacity make them the ideal audience for Azuro’s new offerings. By providing dynamic, real-time odds and leveraging its oracle system for event resolution, Azuro ensures a seamless and accurate prediction experience for its users.
