Is RISC-V the Future of Processors? Exploring Recent Developments and Market Dynamics

RISC-V is gaining significant momentum. Just two weeks ago, Google made an official announcement about its plan to have Android on CPUs built on RISC-V, urging developers to prepare for this inclusion. This move has the potential to open up access to billions of users for RISC-V. During the RISC-V annual summit just a week ago, both Meta and Qualcomm declared that RISC-V would play a central role in their processor development strategies. Given these developments, I think it is time to reassess the trajectory of the RISC-V market and explore its future prospects.

Originating as an academic project in UC-Berkeley’s Par Lab, RISC-V has evolved into a major player, securing the third position with a cumulative shipment of 10 billion chips and posing a real threat to established players like ARM and Intel’s x86. Distinguishing itself as the sole open-source architecture among the three, RISC-V offers a concise core set of instructions, granting developers the freedom to inspect, utilize, and modify the source code. Its modular design empowers developers to choose only the necessary modules, effectively reducing power consumption.

Its differentiation is clear: customization, low power consumption, and affordability. In essence, RISC-V provides designers with the flexibility to customize and construct processors tailored to their specific end applications, enabling optimization of power, performance, and area (PPA) for those particular uses. In the first wave of development over the past decade, RISC-V has gained considerable traction in MCUs and embedded CPUs within IoT applications. This stands in contrast to ARM’s closed-source bundled operating model, which exerts substantial cost pressure on IoT chips.

We expect RISC-V to continue to unlock new segments. In addition to IoT MCUs, the new opportunities lie in:

(1) Smartphone SoCs: Qualcomm already uses RISC-V for microcontrollers that accompany its mobile SoCs.

(2) AI (inference) and high performance computing: companies such as Meta, Intel, Tenstorrent, and Ventana are actively developing RISC-V-based solutions for applications in artificial intelligence and high-performance computing.

(3) GPU: Micro Systems teamed up with Imagination Technologies, both strong advocates for RISC-V, to build a CPU-GPU platform based on the RISC-V and officially announced this partnership this month. This heterogeneous SoC aims at automotive, 5G, AI and client applications.

An increasing number of participants are embracing the trend, contributing to the formation of an ecosystem that continually adapts and evolves, particularly in terms of its software capabilities. In August 2023, Bosch, Infineon, Nordic, NXP, and Qualcomm collaboratively invested in a company with the goal of advancing the global adoption of RISC-V. This investment aims to facilitate next-generation hardware development in both automotive and IoT semiconductors. In May 2023, a consortium including Google, Intel, Imagination Technologies, MediaTek, NVIDIA, Qualcomm, Red Hat, Rivos, Samsung, and others initiated the RISE project. This joint effort is designed to expedite software development within the RISC-V ecosystem, marking the establishment of a robust ecosystem. Contrastingly, five years ago, the landscape for RISC-V toolchain and software was relatively sparse, but today, a comprehensive set of compilers, debuggers, and other software tools are readily available for deployment.

Another influential factor emanates from China. Ever since the initial sanctions against Huawei by the US, a technology war has unfolded over the past three years. Establishing independent technological capabilities has become a top national priority. Major semiconductor buyers are actively cultivating alternative sources for semiconductor suppliers. In contrast to ARM, which already mandates Chinese companies to seek a license for acquiring its CPU Neoverse architecture, RISC-V’s open-source nature presents a safer and more preferred choice for chip development among China’s semiconductor firms. This mindset is also evident among end-device companies, where cloud giants like Alibaba and Tencent have explicitly urged hardware suppliers to transition to RISC-V chips in the future. Alibaba, in particular, has introduced eight server CPUs based on RISC-V, including the C910 chip suitable for AI high-performance computation. Simultaneously, a wave of startups is entering the market, with RISC-V emerging as one of the very few areas where investors are willing to invest substantial sums in today’s market. In 2021, RISC-V foundation moved from US to Switzerland, a clear friendly signal to China market.

We recognize that the journey ahead may not be entirely seamless, especially beyond the Chinese market. The penetration of RISC-V into new segments, such as servers and the AI, will take time. Major cloud buyers priority the security and stability of semiconductors over price and performance. RISC-V-based server CPUs still need to demonstrate their performance over an extended period, particularly at major clients. This trajectory is reminiscent of the path of ARM-based server CPUs, which, despite Qualcomm’s product launch in 2013, only saw significant breakthroughs when AWS adopted at scale (but with its proprietary ARM-based Graviton).

The past few years have been eventual with much chaos in the competitive landscape of CPU and GPU domain where Qualcomm, Intel, AMD and Nvidia actively pursue expansion into adjacent segments. This evolving scenario creates substantial opportunities for RISC-V, empowering semiconductor giants to introduce differentiation in their processors. ARM’s status as a publicly listed company and its purported intention to increase loyalty fees provide an additional boost for RISC-V. While the journey to penetrate new markets may encounter challenges, RISC-V’s distinctive value proposition — openness, lightweight design, and customizability — resonates increasingly with practitioners, especially amidst the current geopolitical uncertainty. My optimism for RISC-V remains strong, and only time will reveal its trajectory.