Sea or Space? The best way to distribute a critical resource, the Internet
In class a couple weeks ago, we discussed the network of cables spanning across oceans to transmit Internet connection at the speed of light. These subsea cables are simultaneously low tech and high tech. They can carry 400 terabits of data per second (400,000 times faster than strong home broadband connection!). But they are also laid out across the ocean floor by ships using the same method used in the 1850s. These cables, about as thick as a garden hose, are responsible for transmitting 99% of the traffic between continents and are not going anywhere anytime soon. In fact, the number of cables continues to increase, connecting not only major cities but also bringing the Internet to smaller towns in Alaska.
With this expansion, the human population has become increasingly more reliant on the cables. Much to our dismay, though, they are not invincible. As we feel the effects of climate change more, extreme storms will put subsea cables at risk. For example, in 2012, Hurricane Sandy severed 11 out of 12 cables that connected the US and Europe. In addition to climate change, fishing equipment, ship anchors, and geopolitical conflicts put the cables in danger. According to Brian Quigley, who leads Subsea and Terrestrial Networks at Google, “at any given moment, more than 10 cables are typically cut around the world”. Repair times can range from two to four weeks, and can be longer depending on government permits and the depth of the water where the cut has occurred.
Over the past couple of years, an alternative to subsea cables has emerged: satellites. Elon Musk’s SpaceX has developed a system called Starlink to provide internet coverage using a network of satellites orbiting Earth’s surface. The first Starlink satellite launched in 2019 and is now available on all 7 continents and in more than 60 countries. Last month, Amazon launched its first satellite under Project Kuiper to compete with Musk. However, despite the impressive growth to date, satellites are still only responsible for providing 1% of the world’s bandwidth, with the rest coming from traditional cables. But, this begs the question: What does the future of Internet distribution look like?
Ultimately, I believe that both submarine cables and satellite infrastructure will power bandwidth in the future for several reasons. These technologies are complimentary, and there are reasonable sources of profit to be found in operating both simultaneously, thereby justifying the production and maintenance costs in both areas.
First, undersea cables generally connect two relatively populated geographies. With the amount of data, they can transmit (hundreds of terabits of data per second), they are able to connect entire continents and are often planned to be located where data needs are high. Conversely, satellites operate at lower capacity, currently targeting specific homes, businesses, and communities. They are much better suited for remote areas that would likely not have any connection otherwise but don’t necessarily require the level of bandwidth that cables support. These two offerings are complementary, serving different populations, and able to coexist to provide maximum connectivity globally.
Further, having both a built-out network of cables and satellites would allow each to act as a contingency plan for the other in the case of unexpected events. Cables often incur damage as a result of ship anchors, earthquakes, hurricanes, volcanoes, and wildlife. Satellites are more susceptible to climate and sun flares. It would be beneficial to have both in place in the case that one system is blown out and requires repair. Tonga, a small country in the South Pacific, endured a volcanic eruption in January 2022 that severed its only undersea internet cable, leaving the country in complete blackout and mitigating aid efforts after the disaster. Fortunately, a limited number of Starlink satellites were able to provide some degree of communication to reconnect with aid providers. However, the satellite service wasn’t perfect — some reported only being able to answer incoming calls, not dial outbound calls. With further development of a satellite system, the population could be better prepared for when things go awry and cables get cut, particularly as climate-change induced natural disasters increase in frequency.
While I believe the most likely outcome is for satellites and cables to coexist, I do not foresee satellites entirely replacing cables due to capacity constraints described above and, importantly, cost. Elon Musk has described that Starlink will require up to $30 billion in funding to reach its target of 42,000 satellites globally by mid-2027. Particularly given how many undersea cables are already in place, the cost of ongoing maintenance and route expansions falls far below the $30 billion estimate.
The internet of the future will be provided by both satellites and undersea cables. During a time of geopolitical turmoil and high reliance on connectivity, one important implication of this will be in how countries globally protect the systems through which bandwidth is distributed. Particularly following the press Starlinks got during the Russian invasion of Ukraine, it will be extremely important for the international community to set guidelines regarding cables and satellites alike, preparing for a future the involves both.
Sources
https://www.cnet.com/home/internet/features/the-secret-life-of-the-500-cables-that-run-the-internet/
