Quantum Computing’s Impending Security Threat
By Nathan Dahlen
Tech Op Ed #1
In an age where technological evolution seems to accelerate by the minute, the advent of quantum computing emerges as a so-called “quantum leap” into a future fraught with both utopian promise and dystopian peril. For the uninitiated, quantum computing might sound like the stuff of science fiction. But it is real — and the implications for technology and society are vast and dramatic.
The Quantum Leap Simplified: What is Quantum Computing?
At its core, quantum computing represents a fundamental shift from the classical computing model, which relies on bits (0s and 1s), to a paradigm that employs quantum bits, or qubits. The former is based on the laws of classical physics, the latter on theories of quantum mechanics. Imagine, for example, a world where instead of flipping a coin with a heads or tails outcome (classical mechanics), you spin it, allowing for a state of being which is both heads and tails simultaneously (quantum mechanics). Alternatively, think of the way that a classical computer solves a maze problem: it tries each route in the maze until it finds the path that leads to the exit. A quantum computer is able to try all paths at once.
Quantum computing’s qubits can exist in multiple states simultaneously thanks to a principle known as superposition. Qubits can also be entangled, a quantum phenomenon where the state of one (no matter the distance from another) can instantaneously influence the state of another. This is the heart of quantum computing — exploiting the peculiar, multiple, simultaneous nature of quantum mechanics to process information in ways traditional computers can’t replicate.
The Race to Quantum Supremacy
Today, tech giants and nations alike are pouring billions into quantum research, inching closer to what’s termed “quantum supremacy” — the point where quantum computers perform tasks beyond the reach of today’s most powerful supercomputers.
But the road is riddled with obstacles, from achieving stable qubit coherence to the monumental task of error correction. The timeline envisioned to achieve a fully operational quantum computer with quantum supremacy varies widely among experts, ranging from a few years to a few decades, reflecting the uncertainties and technical challenges that lie ahead. One commentator at the WEF suggests we’re at approximately the same stage as the 1970s for classical computing — we have them, they’re just not great yet.
Companies like Google, IBM, and Honeywell are at the forefront of quantum computing research. Google, for instance, claimed “quantum supremacy” in 2019, demonstrating a quantum computer’s ability to perform a specific task faster than the world’s most powerful supercomputer at the time. IBM, who disputes this achievement, has been focusing on increasing the quantum volume of their systems, a metric indicating the overall capability and performance of a quantum computer, while also making quantum computing accessible via the cloud. Honeywell has also been working on creating the world’s most powerful quantum computers through its expertise in quantum mechanics and high-precision control systems.
A Double-Edged Sword: Utopian promise, dystopian peril
However, for this commentator, it’s the social implications of quantum computing — not the technical problems — that cast the longest shadow, particularly in the realm of cybersecurity. Here, the analogy to nuclear proliferation is apt, underscoring the transformative yet potentially destabilizing power of quantum technology. Just as nuclear capability redefined military strategy and international relations, so too could quantum computing redefine the landscape of digital and national security.
The crux of the threat lies in quantum computing’s potential to crack the cryptographic algorithms that currently safeguard our digital communications. The encryption methods that protect everything from our emails to national security secrets are based on mathematical problems too complex for current computers to solve within a reasonable timeframe. Quantum computers, however, could solve these problems in the blink of an eye, rendering traditional encryption obsolete and exposing a vast expanse of digital information to new vulnerabilities.
The race towards quantum computing is not just a scientific endeavor but a security imperative. The prospect of quantum supremacy brings with it a paradox: the very technology that promises to revolutionize fields like medicine and logistics also threatens to undermine the foundations of digital privacy and security. It demands a preemptive approach to quantum-safe cryptography and a reevaluation of how we protect our digital infrastructure. Indeed, at the end of 2022, Biden signed the Quantum Computing Cybersecurity Preparedness Act into law, which requires federal agencies to assess the vulnerability of their technology systems to quantum hacks and the creation of plans to mitigate that risk.
The quantum age promises to be one of utopian innovation and, potentially, dystopian risk. The time to prepare is now, lest we find ourselves outpaced by the very technology we seek to master.
