The Importance of National Security in the Quantum Era
What is Quantum Computing?
Quantum computers use qubits — instead of computer bits that represent a 0 or 1 — that can embody multiple states at once, giving them extraordinary computational capabilities. These capabilities surpass even the most powerful supercomputers, and allow quantum computers to perform calculations at exponentially faster rates. While quantum technology has not yet reached quantum supremacy, or the point at which a quantum computer can solve a problem that is practically impossible for a classical computer to solve, it likely will in the near future. And once achieved, this capability promises significant advancements in fields like cryptography, biotechnology, manufacturing, AI, and many more, and a plethora of potential impactful applications across sectors.
Global Quantum Computing Landscape
This potential is already spurring large investments and development in the quantum sector, and has created a competitive global landscape as countries and corporations vie to achieve quantum supremacy and gain the advantages it brings with it. The quantum technology ecosystem comprises quantum computing, quantum communications, and quantum sensing, among others, and according to McKinsey, the potential quantum technology market will be worth an estimated $106B USD by 2040, with 350 startups in the ecosystem and $34B in government investment. The potential economic value created by quantum computing is predicted to fall in the hundreds of billions, at the least.[1]
Clearly, quantum computing is an important strategic technological advancement, paralleling and maybe even surpassing the strategic races in artificial intelligence and semiconductor production. But there is a key risk associated with the development of quantum technology — its potential to upend global security.
With its unimaginable computing power, quantum computing will undoubtably be able to break current encryption standards, and do so easily.[2] Current encryption relies on complex algorithms that are secure against decryption by modern computers. However, quantum computers possess the capability to quickly factor these large numbers and break the encryption that protects our data and the internet’s structure. Although current quantum computers lack the capacity to crack most existing encryption forms, developing quantum-resistant security measures ahead of time is quickly becoming a priority for governments across the world.[3]
So, proactively engaging with quantum technology is more than an economic opportunity: as quantum computing approaches the capability to compromise encryption, there is an urgent need for countries to anticipate its effects and invest in quantum-proof cryptographic solutions. Foresight and investment are essential not only for ensuring a position at the forefront of the tech race, but also for maintaining information security and securing digital infrastructure.
Investments by Leading Nations
To date, over 20 governments around the world have initiated national quantum programs, collectively investing more than $30 billion in the field, and most of these nations have an active commercial sector engaged in quantum R&D.[5] Regarding cybersecurity, the US National Institute of Standards and Technology is working on cryptographic algorithms designed to be quantum-resistant, while China is actively developing quantum communication networks, which are believed to be impenetrable.[6]
Several nations are also working together, due to the highly specialized and globally dispersed talent pool in quantum computing — like the semiconductor field. This has shown international collaboration to be a key path to success. The U.S., for example, has been collaborating with Australia on quantum computing since the 1990s, and they have both signed a statement of intent to “cooperate and share the benefits of quantum information and science technologies,” recognizing the strength of the economic and strategic relationship between the two countries and their shared commitment to democratic institutions.[7]
China is resolutely investing in quantum technology to establish itself as a global leader, with currently investments superseding those of the U.S.. According to McKinsey, China’s investment in quantum is approximately $15.3 billion, compared to the U.S.’s $3.7 billion. China’s quantum ambitions include creating a cyber-secure infrastructure to bolster military and surveillance systems. Nonetheless, the U.S. remains a strong competitor, considering its dynamic private sector and collaborative research efforts, and it is actively working to limit financial flows into China’s quantum initiatives to protect its advantage.[8]
Looking ahead
Quantum supremacy represents a critical juncture for global security and technological leadership. The emerging ability of quantum computing to render obsolete current encryption methodologies underscores an urgent call for nations and businesses to engage with quantum technology proactively.
The imperative for countries is twofold: to protect their existing digital infrastructure and to lay the groundwork for future technological and economic advantages. The entities that lead in quantum computing will likely dictate the new standards and strategies in a world where traditional encryption no longer guarantees security.
For businesses of all kinds, this has various implications: it necessitates a proactive approach to investing in quantum-safe encryption and preparing for a competitive landscape where data security, and national security, can become a key differentiator and factor in sustaining operations. Accordingly, support for government initiatives to develop quantum computing — by partnering in research, or co-funding projects — will foster a symbiotic advancement in technology that can drive innovation and provide early access to quantum-safe infrastructure for businesses.
[1] https://www.mckinsey.com/featured-insights/the-rise-of-quantum-computing
[2] https://thediplomat.com/2023/06/the-security-implications-of-quantum-computing-and-indias-national-quantum-mission/#:~:text=In%20quantum%20communications%2C%20China%20is%20leading%20and,thousands%20of%20kilometers%20between%20Shanghai%20and%20Beijing
[3] https://www.encryptionconsulting.com/is-quantum-computing-a-threat-to-cyber-security/#:~:text=However%2C%20it%20poses%20a%20substantial,and%20develop%20quantum%2Dproof%20solutions.
[4] https://finance.yahoo.com/news/16-most-advanced-countries-quantum-131132253.html
[5] https://www.iotworldtoday.com/industry/which-countries-have-the-most-quantum-computing-companies
[6] https://www.reuters.com/investigates/special-report/us-china-tech-quantum/
[7] https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/10/25/quantum-computing-united-states-australia-cooperation-allies-science-technology-chips/#:~:text=Collaboration%20between%20the%20United%20States,quantum%20information%20and%20science%20technologies.
[8] https://www.reuters.com/investigates/special-report/us-china-tech-quantum/#:~:text=The%20United%20States%20and%20China%20are%20considered%20the%20leaders%20in,on%20to%20protect%20critical%20data
