Final Day Before BCH Fork Battle, Bitmain will lose?
Today is the final day before BITCOIN CASH(BCH) fork battle, and the strength disparity between the two teams is getting even greater.
In fact, since the beginning of November, the total hash（computing） power of the BCH network has increased from 3.5EH to 4.8EH, which is more than 30% in two weeks, calculated according to the classic ant S9 mining machine 14TH / S hash power (1EH = 1 million TH) ，means 92,000 S9 machines has joined the battle, highlighting the battle’s intensity.
The statistics based on the classic camp classification, namely BCH ABC’s： Antpool, ViaBTC, BTC.com, Bitcoin.com, BTC.TOP.
Calvin Ayre, the Australian gambling tycoon supporting BSV by his Coingeek, CSW(Craig Wright) has SVPool, also BMG Pool supporting BSV with its considerable hash power.
Among them, Coingeek increased most hash power, following by SVPool supported by CSW. Since October 10, the calculation capacity of this pool has increased from 16PH to 942 PH. Nowadays, the computing power is nearly 5Xthat of the Antpool. It shows that CSW’s arrogance comes with real stuff.
As the chart below BSV gets the upper hand which has more than 70% percent of the total hash power, seems can make an easy win:
But don’t forget last week, a Chinese media quoted industry insiders as saying that Bitmain is intensively talking with mining pool owners in Xinjiang, and at most 90,000 mining machines can be added to prepare for BCH forks. If Bitmain can get so many mining machines, there will be a neck to neck battle.
Not to mention the fact that Bitmain and its allies have more than 23 EH hash power deployed on the BTC network, and there are possibilities to switch computing power to BCH network (both are SHA256 algorithm), although this is a risky move, this BCH fork battle, Bitmain cannot afford to lose.
Judging from the current situation, CW needs to obtain at least 70% of the BCH network’s computing power to launch a “51% attack” on the BCH ABCsupported by Bitmain. This is an extreme situation that will result in both losses.
So once CSW maintains the power advantage and ultimately wins, the high probability situation should be as described in the latest analysis by Liu Chang, an economics professor at Chongqing Technology and Business University:
The BCH 0.18 version upgrade will fail, which will lead by ABC team. The leading routine update route was interrupted, the credibility of the official website weakened, the self-worth realized frustration, the team member’s work passion gone, and the public trust of Wu Jihan, who supported ABC, was also damaged. These were the good news for BSV, also helps the establishment of the personal authority of CSW.
However, the thing is Bitmain is hiding its two secret weapons, so the final victory is still unknown.
In the end, the reminder is that no matter who wins or loses this battle, the forked BCH with the POW mechanism is a bad thing anyway, because it will disperse the computing power of the BCH network, which will undoubtedly increase the vulnerability of this currency.
For trading strategy, this is a perfect time to long BCH‘s volatility, which take both long and short contract on the same entry price, liquidates the profit contract after, then wait for the losses one to come back.
