Opening the ‘Black Box’ of Emerging Technologies
Governments have less time than they think to prepare for revolutionary and disruptive change
Cambridge, Boston, Portland, San Francisco and nine other cities in the United States have banned the use of facial recognition technologies. Dozens of 5G antennas have been vandalised in the UK, France and other countries. The UK is just now starting with the first e-scooters trials following prior legal complications.
These types of headlines are becoming more and more common in the news and lead us to question: what is the right move forward with emerging technologies? Are existing regulations enabling or blocking their deployment? How do we open up the ‘black box’ of technology? And ultimately —
How can local governments cope with the pace of technological development and create environments that promote innovation in an ethical and just manner?
The answers to these and similar questions can be explored and potentially resolved through what is called anticipatory governance. Anticipatory governance is the process of proactively acting on a variety of inputs to manage emerging knowledge-based technologies and socio-economic developments. This sometimes involves the coordination of multiple governance functions (foresight, engagement, policymaking, funding, regulation, etc.).
It is important to note that emerging technologies are not (or not only) something out of a science fiction movie nor only innovative technologies that may appear in the future. They are also (and most importantly) those that are starting to be tested or implemented in certain places and of which the consequences of their applications are still (or at least partially) unknown. Examples of these technologies could be the different applications of algorithms, such as those used to analyse complex DNA evidence in the U.S.; artificial intelligence testing, such as those which prioritise efforts in the department of Surveillance & Enforcement to evaluate holiday rental housing fraud in Amsterdam; or 5G applications in healthcare, such as virtual video consultations during emergency situations at home or in connected ambulances in the UK.
A definition of emerging technologies
- Those which are in development and have only been tested at the market level on a limited basis
- Technologies that will have a measurable impact economically, socially or morally in the next five to ten years
3. Technologies which do not fit within existing regulatory code
So why should we care?
Although anticipatory governance may seem to be a ‘nice to have’ rather than a ‘must-have’ approach, the former is not the case. The reason emerging technologies are being discussed and some cities are taking a forward-thinking approach to anticipatory governance is that although these technologies are being deployed and tested all around the world, their impacts or secondary effects are unknown.
Innovative technologies have the potential to address many ‘wicked’ problems cities are facing, but their applications need to be evaluated with consideration for both the benefits and risks they can create for the population.
Most importantly, this is not only a relevant matter for major cities but also for all cities aiming to introduce smart and innovative technologies to their urban areas. The big players and leaders in the field can certainly inspire the action of smaller actors, as presented in the subsequent examples.
But how do we do it?
Cities around the world are taking the first steps towards defining and creating governance frameworks that can deal with the uncertainties of emerging and future technologies. These examples provide a foundation and a forum for discussing and developing the best and most suitable approaches.
San Francisco: Office of Emerging Technology
In December 2019, the city of San Francisco created its Office of Emerging Technology, which is led by the Public Works office. The mission of the office is to “work with companies seeking to test, pilot or deploy emerging technology within public areas of the city and guide them through responsible implementation with a process that includes an application for a permit, payment of a pilot project review fee and a 20-day public comment period”. The office builds on the work of the existing emerging technology working group, which was responsible for developing recommendations, evaluating the impacts of modern technologies and improving the dialogue between the city and technology industry. The working group engaged in this process with the private sector, universities and civil society.
London: Emerging Technology Charter
London recently published the first draft of its Emerging Technology Charter, which is now open for review. The charter includes a list of emerging technologies, principles that will guide the action of the government and specific actions that can increase interaction between the public and private sectors, as well as develop capacity in the public sector.
The four principles included in the Charter are:
- Establish common, open and trusted ways of working
- Respect equality, diversity and human rights in the design and use of emerging technology
- Collect, manage, use and share data legally, ethically and securely
- Supporting the long-term recovery of the city from COVID-19
According to the city, the Charter will be developed iteratively and in the open and will also follow a public and expert design and engagement process after its launch — Smart London
Belfast: Data Manifesto
Through a triple-helix engagement process, the team at BABLE (BABLE Community) worked with the city of Belfast to develop a set of principles that presents aspects to consider when using data-driven technologies. The Manifesto aims to guarantee that these technologies have a positive impact on people’s lives and the economy, setting the foundation that will guide the city into the future. Within this Manifesto, there is one principle that demands the adoption of an ethical approach towards data usage and management, as well as recognising the responsibility of the organisation for the unexpected consequences of its actions.
Looking forward: what does the future hold?
The preceding examples can provide some guidance on how cities can organise themselves in the field of anticipatory governance for emerging technologies. Guidelines, principles and strategies in this area serve as a framework to orientate actions, help companies understand priorities in government and give direction to government programmes. Setting up offices or working groups can add dedicated resources for the assessment of technologies and a permanent link to those developing new technologies.
Moreover, there are additional approaches that can support the processes of testing and understanding technologies and translating the learnings into governance and regulation. For instance, cities can create a regulatory sandbox, which is a tool that governments can use to experiment with innovation.
- As test areas established for a limited time, covering a limited area, in which innovative technologies and business models can be tried out in real life
- Make use of regulatory leeway
- Entail an ‘interest in regulatory discovery’
Regulatory sandboxes are particularly useful to learn about the legal implications and other consequences of the various innovations.
Whether anticipatory governance frameworks are materialised in the form of a charter, an office, a regulatory sandbox or any other approach, it is important to keep some fundamental design principles in mind:
- The process must enable and encourage experimentation: our main challenge with emerging technologies is our lack of knowledge about the impacts and how to best capitalise on the benefits they can create. Through testing and experimenting in more controlled environments, better regulations can be more easily developed.
- Engage, engage, engage: such frameworks can only be properly executed by engaging with a wide range of stakeholders, especially with those developing and studying these technologies. Civil society and citizens also have an important stake since they will be, in most cases, the first affected by the benefits or consequences of the applications.
- Trust must be built and nurtured: a lack of trust can derail any well-intentioned project. Thus, it is important that local governments pay attention to this issue and take actions to be recognised as a trustworthy actor, able to facilitate and inform the conversation about emerging technologies.
- Transparency: deeply linked to the issue of trust is the transparency of the process. Open and honest dialogues can ease the challenges that may appear along the way.
- Design with the future in mind: cities are becoming very interconnected spaces. We do not know which technologies will be developed in the future, however, promoting the uptake and use of existing standards in the implementation of existing and emerging technologies has the potential to prevent many pitfalls in the future.
Anticipatory governance is an opportunity to advance regulations, policies and other frameworks to keep with the pace of technological development and guarantee (or aim for) the best results for the society.
Governments have less time than they think to prepare for revolutionary and disruptive change.
So, what are we waiting for?
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