Hoy No Circula and the Jevon’s Paradox
What would you do if, one day, the government picked you and said, “Sorry, you can’t drive your car today,” while all of your friends are able to drive without restrictions? Imagine the sudden disruption in your plans and the inconveniences, leaving you to ponder, “Why me?”
Hoy No Circula, or in English, “today [your car] does not circulate,” is an environmental program implemented in Mexico to address air pollution problems in cities. The program initially works by restricting the number of personal vehicles on the road on a weekday based on the last digit of the license plate number. For example, cars with license plate numbers ending in a 1 or 2 would not be allowed to be driven on Mondays. Cars with license plate numbers ending in a 3 or 4 would not be able to drive on Tuesdays, and so on and so forth. The program’s objective is to reduce vehicle emissions and improve air quality, hoping for a 20% reduction of cars on a weekday. Though first introduced in 1989, the program has recently been updated in 2008 to include a Saturday limitation, hoping to decrease emissions by an additional 15%.
The program was relatively successful for a while, with an 11% decline in carbon monoxide levels. However, here is where Jevon’s Paradox comes into play. The Jevon’s Paradox suggests that efficiency improvements will inevitably undermine any initial benefits it aimed to provide because the lowered cost of utilization will increase overall consumption. This was precisely how Hoy No Circula turned out. A study conducted in 2007 to evaluate the results of the program found that there has been a 13% growth in carbon monoxide instead.
It turns out that people found a way to bypass the policy: by buying more cars, which are often cheaper and less energy efficient. In other words, people slowly figured out that if they had more vehicles on rotation, they could drive every single day without restrictions. I mean, what are the odds right? Initially, policymakers had expected individuals to opt for public transportation on the days when they were “banned” from the road. However, studies show that people hesitate to switch over and give up their fast, private, and comfortable vehicles, which are often seen as status symbols in Mexico. Studies also show that people bribed police officers because the bribes were substantially cheaper than the fine, which was $200 plus an additional 48 hour vehicle restriction.
Thus, I would like to suggest a potential solution to tackle the unintended consequences of Hoy No Circula. First and foremost, I think that it is crucial to gain public awareness. This would mean running campaigns to educate citizens about the environmental benefits of the program, as well as the current state of the climate. By fostering a goal of unity, the program could generate public support and compliance. Second, I would incentivize the ownership of environmentally friendly vehicles, such as electric cars. By introducing rebates or tax credits, individuals would be less compelled to purchase fossil-fuel-powered cars. Finally, I would improve public transportation to make it more competitive with private transportation. For example, ride shares would allow a compromise for those who are hesitant to completely give up their private cars while still contributing to the public environmental effort.
Source reference links:
https://www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/10.1086/529398
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1361920922000220
