“The farther backward you can look, the farther forward you are likely to see.” — Winston Churchill
Bitcoin prices have been going up since March 2020 in its last upswing, but the bull market started in December 2018.
As technical analysts, we do not predict; we use mathematical reality to evaluate the following events’ odds. But the most crucial point about Bitcoin is very fundamental, and the most “predictable” event of BTC is the halving.
Most investors see it as a bullish event, but it has a powerful “bearish” reality.
These are the arguments we are going to cover to catch and kill the next bear.
- The next halving can be expected in the year 2024.
- 12 months before any halving confirms the end of the last bear market.
- The halving always correlates with a US presidential election year.
- No bull market ever lasts more than 539 days post-halving.
The next halving can be expected in the year 2024.
Bitcoin halving occurs when the 630,000th block is mined. The next halving can be expected in the year of 2024. It will drop the block reward to 3.125 BTC. As a rule of thumb in technical analysis, an event that happened three times is always incredibly significant. Those halving periods have and will permanently set the tone if Bitcoin exists.
In this monthly BTC chart, we show you all the specific dates of the last halving and how they shape the entire crypto market circle.
12 months before any halving confirms the end of the last bear market.
Most investors pay attention to the post halving period, but we think pre halving is where the money is. One year before the halving will always give you the lowest price for the next bull to come. That is the reason why it so important.
This is the same Monthly chart.
We pointed out the bottom of the last Bear Markets we know, and as you can undoubtedly see, those blue arrows pointing to the green complete vertical lines. They are the lowest low of their respective bear markets.
There is that exciting period of 12+ months. As every candle represent an entire month of trading, no bear market ever makes it in that 12 months pre halving.
The green arrows points to green boxes. These boxes represent a period between the lowest point of a bear market and the next halving. That period is never less than 12 months.
The first pre-halving period was 12 months, the second 17 months, the third 17 months.
We don’t have a date for the halving, but we do have the year 2024. That being said, we will have the most majority of that pre-halving period in 2023, “right after a Bear market.”
Halving always correlates with a US presidential election year.
We don’t know why, but the most important thing is that the US election is another major predictable event that always happens in November of any halving year. This event has the potential to move money all over the globe and in all markets combined.
We mention it because there’s always a crypto Bear market during the fall and summer seasons that precede 24 months pre-election. The odd of being in an entire Bear market will be from June 2022 to Dec 2022.
Look at the chart and pay attention to those events.
Those yellow vertical lines are US presidential elections months.
We circled those Bear Markets for you and how summer and fall seasons always sit in the middle of them. This always happens at least two years pre-US presidential election.
However, the most dangerous time to Buy Bitcoin is not during that period. We will show you later, and that will bring us to our last point.
No bull market ever lasts more than 539 days post halving.
We can undoubtedly pass 539 days this time, but it won’t be substantially extended. The reason is that the last bull markets period post-halving lasted 18 months. The one before November 2012 was shorter, only 13 months post-halving. Look at the chart yourself. This is the same chart we circle those post-halving bull-run for you
Now how do we conclude this analysis?
We have to do the math.
Let assume that this actual bear market will last 18 months, just like the last time. It might be longer but indeed not substantially long.
We will point this in this chart.
18 months after this last halving place us in November 2021, let’s keep that in mind.
Two years before the next presidential election is November 2022, and the summer and fall of this year Start June 2022 till December 2022. In that period, we will have a bear market, not sure what part of it, beginning or end, but it will be on us.
This left us with a gap.
We show it in this chart. The red vertical line is the beginning of summer 2022. That period between November 2021 and June 2022 is the most dangerous zone to buy BTC.
This gap will be the reason a lot of amateur traders will bleed on the market.
It can start earlier or later, but the bear will take full control of the market in that gap.
It did it three times like this.
This does not give any estimation of the TOP of this actual bull market. It can be 100k to 1 million. We won’t cover the potential TOPs in this article. But here is the point for now.
You should not be buying crypto from November 2021 till June 2022.
Halving is nothing, just a countdown.
This article was written by Dr Kerns E Boisrond
Join BaconDAO today for more Analysis and Opportunities!
BaconDAO: https://discord.gg/bacon
Medium: https://medium.com/virtualbacon-DAO
Twitter: https://twitter.com/VB_DAO
Website: https://virtualbacon.com/
Disclaimer
IMPORTANT! DO NOT SKIP!
The following report is EDUCATIONAL RESEARCH MATERIAL.
It is NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE.
VirtualBacon and team is NOT A FINANCIAL ADVISOR.
This report is a summary of our educational research.
It is provided for educational and informational purposes ONLY.
YOU ARE UNDER NO OBLIGATION TO INVEST IN ANYTHING.
VirtualBacon does not provide individually tailored investment advice, as we do not understand the readers’ financial situations, investment goals, risk tolerance, etc. All investing decisions should be made under consideration of your own circumstances. We are not responsible for any losses you incur, or profits you make.
Cryptocurrency investing comes with extremely high risk. YOU COULD LOSE ALL OF YOUR MONEY WITHIN A DAY!
If you choose to invest, consider the following advice:
- Do not risk money you cannot afford to lose.
- Perform due-diligence and understand your investments.
- Use common sense.
