A brief history of the war in Syria.
Revolutions are contagious. Revolutions end up in chaos.
The big picture
The early part of the 20th century was a period of wide ranging reforms around the world. The collapse of old empires like the Ottoman empire, Qing empire and British empire was followed by years of chaos and optimism across the developing world.
Mustafa Kemal Atatürk of Turkey brought out revolutionary reforms that took Turkey to a modern, secular state. The success of Ataturk probably rubbed on and a generation of secular leaders appeared all across the middle east. Nasser brought out similar reforms in Egypt. In the following generations, it was good to be secular. Assad [Syria], Saddam Hussein [Iraq], Gadaffi [Libya], Hosni Mubarak [Egypt] were all quite irreligious and that means all of them earned the ire of Saudis.
In the Arab world, the Ba’athism movement brought out the idea that even non-Muslims can be in power. Not surprisingly, the key founders of the Ba’ath were a Christian and an Alawite — a faith some Arabs don’t consider as a part of Islam.
The idea that non-Muslims can rule the Arab world didn’t sit well with the religious masses and Saudi Arabia. The Saudis were untouched by the revolutions in the Arab world where monarchy was overthrown. They continued to be the most religious and fought the reforms in the region. They had very powerful friends — America. The Americans loved the Saudi oil and found that they have common enemies — Communism and revolution.
Religion fights back
In 1979, the Iranian Revolution started reversing the trend of secularism. They competed with the Saudis to have the most rigorous religious ideas implemented.
The Iranians and Iraqis then got on to a bloody war that lasted nearly a decade. This war nearly bankrupted Iraq, forcing Saddam to do the suicidal Invasion of Kuwait to avoid repaying his debts and have more access to oil. That was his death warrant.
The Americans, who helped the Iraqis in their war against Iran, got the cold feet. The ambition of Iraq scared and finally they came in line with the Saudis who wanted to end the Ba’athist movement.
As Saddam got cornered in his wars, he got increasingly oppressive and it made bad things worse. Over two gulf wars — in 1991 and 2003 — Saddam was overthrown and eventually executed. The religious forces that were suppressed for decades came out of the bottle and started wrecking the region.
Winning powerful enemies
As mentioned earlier, the middle eastern leaders were quite nationalistic and that often didn’t sit well with American interests. They often nationalised oil companies [forcibly took over western oil companies] and that means they affected powerful financial interests.
For years, the conservative Islamic countries like Saudi Arabia wanted to get rid of the Ba’athists and supported a wide range of terror movements.
Their heavy handed dictatorship didn’t win them friends in Europe either. However, they were all quite strong and thus it was hard for their enemies to directly intervene.
It is never good to have powerful enemies.
The Arab Spring
In January 2011, an ordinary street vendor Mohamed Bouazizi committed suicide publicly to protest the harassment of the government. That incident provoked a massive backlash and ten days later the Tunisian government was overthrown.
That “inspired” countless other movements across the Arab world Timeline of the Arab Spring — Wikipedia. The revolution was liberally helped by rebels funded by the US and Saudi Arabia — who wanted many of their enemies gone.
Coming to Syria
For decades, Syria has been ruled by the powerful Al-Assad family. They follow the Alawite faith. The Assad family subscribed to the Ba’athism movement and even passed a law that allowed non-Muslims to govern Syria.
To keep themselves in power over the majority, the Ba’athists resorted to repression. They were more close to Russia and that didn’t sit well with American/Saudi interests.
The Arab spring became the ruse for more direct intervention in the region. The collapse of Iraq since 2003 sent a massive religious craziness into their borders leading to the rise of Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant.
Also, important were the dust storms that led to massive droughts in the years leading up to 2010. Understanding Syria: From Pre-Civil War to Post-Assad
On one side are some genuine rebels who fight the oppression. Then there are the fighters supported by Americans and Saudis. Then there is the ISIS and then the Syrian government. All 4 are against each other in a death match.
Eventually, the involvement of the Russians forced the Americans to be more pragmatic and less confused [until then Americans were fighting both ISIS and their enemy — the Syrian government].
