Schumacher vs Shwarztman | Who Will Get A Seat For 2021?
Ferrari Driver Academy (FDA) is currently the most crowded talent pool affiliated with F1 team more than any driver academies has with 9 young drivers in their squad. In Formula 2 alone they had 5 drivers competing against each other. The goal for those young guys is clearly to become an F1 driver. With a potential seat open for next year at Alfa Romeo, I can see only 2 drivers competing towards that seat. Based on this season’s performances and overall results throughout their career, I think it will be down to Mick Schumacher or Robert Shwartzman.
The most significant surname in this sport’s history
I couldn’t imagine how pressure could be any more prominent on a young driver than having the word “Schumacher” as your surname. Because Schumacher family is like no other in Formula 1.
Usually, when you have a racing family, the legacy will be passed from generation to generation. The Andretti Family and The Fittipaldi Family are some examples of racing families which passed their legacy between generations.
But, Schumacher family is just different. They exist in Formula one only at a one time period, but they left an unprecedented legacy. The Schumacher Brothers are the only siblings in Formula 1 to ever achieved a 1–2 podium finish and not only once but twice. They raced each other on track as hard as anyone else. Both Michael and Ralf are race winners. More than that, Michael, who is Mick’s father, statistically is the most successful driver in Formula 1 history with 91 wins and 7 world titles to his name.
So far, Mick’s CV is definitely not bad for a young driver. He has a history for not being able to perform as expected during his first season for each junior series he participated. But, he will be improving so much for his second season and contend for the title. He finished second in the final classification for ADAC F4 Championship in 2018 after finished tenth the year before. The same thing happened in European F3 Championship when he won the title in 2018 after dominating the second half of the season and improving his skills from only able to finished twelfth in the year before.
His first F2 season last year was also disappointing. He finished twelfth in the final standings with only one sprint race win at Hungaroring. Paired with Sean Gelael, who is an underperforming seasoned veteran, as his teammate, we couldn’t really see a proper benchmark for Mick. Although, arguably many of his bad results were from bad lucks but I’m still not impressed with how he performed last year.
A charging young Russian
2020 season will be a much different experience for Mick compared to 2019. He will be paired with another FDA member who is a speedy young talent with a Formula 3 title on his belt. It’s Robert Shwartzman who will challenge Mick not only for this year’s Formula 2 championship but also an upcoming spot in Formula 1 for 2021.
Robert’s CV is excellent. He regularly becomes a contender for the title in each junior series he participated in. He is also quick to adapt to each car’s characteristic and can be instantly fast. He is the reigning FIA Formula 3 champion and had an excellent performance last year with over 50 points advantage ahead of his closest rival, Marcus Armstrong.
His current performance and results in Formula 2 are also awe-inspiring. Currently, he is the championship leader with 2 feature race wins. He took his latest win in quite some fashion. He started P11 and stormed right away into P6 at the start. He then charged his way through the field with an alternate tyre strategy. He ultimately won the race with over 20 seconds margin from his teammate, Mick, who was the fastest among drivers with original strategy.
What made me amazed is that Robert putting this kind of performance after he lost his father just a couple months before. It showed how robust his mental strength and focus are, just like what happened to Charles Leclerc 3 years earlier, although it came in a different scenario.
Who will eventually graduate to F1 in 2021?
Looking at current season’s Alfa, they seemed to be immensely struggling with performance. Their Ferrari power unit is clearly not powerful enough. Their chassis seemed to be underdeveloped. Williams is getting closer to them. Overall, they are not in great shape.
Based on those facts, I cannot see a reason for Kimi Raikkonen to renew his contract. Yes, it is only a “hobby” for Kimi, but I can’t see an F1 world champion would consider running a backmarker F1 car and spending half distance of the race respecting blue flags as a hobby.
I presume there will be at least one open seat for 2021 and it will be Mick’s seat no matter who finished higher between him and Robert. Having a Schumacher back on the F1 grid will be a considerable boost to F1’s popularity. There will be an influx in terms of marketing opportunity for F1 mainly to try gaining fans in Germany and attract returning fans in other markets who were exposed with F1 during Michael’s era. Not only Fiat Group which owns both Ferrari and Alfa Romeo wanted this to be happening soon but also Liberty Media as F1’s organizer.
Mick Schumacher will have to perform well and try as hard as he could to win this season’s F2 championship and beating all of his FDA compatriots. If not, it would be a very rough ride for him at the beginning of his F1 career. Very high expectations combined with unhappy idealist fans who expect only the best to come to F1 would give Mick not a quite welcoming 2021 if he failed to deliver this season.
Giovinazzi will be another deciding factor.
I wouldn’t be surprised if that second seat in Alfa Romeo is becoming available. Antonio Giovinazzi’s race seat is not secure by any means. His performances last year were not the greatest for a half-rookie. He finished 17th in the final standings and 29 apart from his teammate, Kimi Raikkonen, on 12th place. If he doesn’t improve this season, then his seat will surely be taken away next year.
If Gio is out, that doesn’t necessarily mean that it will be Robert Shwartzman’s seat. This year’s silly season is already crazy and has an excellent potential to become even crazier along the way. Nico Hulkenberg, who was axed out by Renault last year, is still looking for a seat to return to F1. He is obviously not a bad F1 driver. Even Cyril Abiteboul, his former boss at Renault, said in Netflix’s F1 Drive To Survive series that he is indeed a world champion material. The only minus thing from him is his unbelievable constant bad lucks which kept him out from podium for his whole F1 career. Many people in the paddock believe that Alfa Romeo will be his best bet for next year.
This case will put more dilemma for Alfa Romeo and also Ferrari. Alfa will obviously need someone with experience in the cockpit, and for that reason, they signed Kimi Raikkonen back in 2018 for two upcoming seasons. On the other hand, there is a very bright talent in Robert Shwartzman ready to step up into Formula 1 for good.
At the end of the day, it will depend on their decision whether they want to turn Alfa Romeo to be Ferrari’s version of Toro Rosso or not. If not, then they better sign Nico Hulkenberg.
What will be my decision if I am the one in power?
No brainer, I will give a seat for Nico Hulkenberg. He is a very skilful and talented driver whose experiences will be too good to be wasted. Alfa Romeo needs an experienced driver to help them built the team unless they want to be a Toro Rosso for Ferrari. He will also be a great teammate and benchmark for whoever gets the second seat. I think all young drivers will be benefitted for having an experienced teammate.
I will be giving the second seat to Mick Schumacher unless Robert Shartzman beat him in the final F2 standings with a considerable margin. I can’t lie that his surname plays a big part. I think the marketing opportunity coming from him will be too good to be ignored. I am also convinced that his talent alone deserved a seat in F1.
It will be obviously unfair for Robert Shwartzman, moreover if he eventually won the F2 championship. But, I think the best plan for him is becoming a test driver for Ferrari while competing in other series or even try to be signed by other non-Ferrari affiliated teams for 2022.
