CFB Pick 6: Week 11
Our week-by-week journey through the trials and tribulations of gambling during the college football season continues for Week 11.
College football is by no means a domain in which I would consider myself an expert. However, college football is something I love to spend my Saturdays, Thursdays, and Tuesdays (shout-out MACtion) watching, and the level of interest is always much higher with money on the line. So follow along in this journey with me throughout the college football season to see if the money I should be using to invest in blockchain turns out to provide a much higher return than ethereum…or if I’m really as dumb as Vegas thinks I am.
Chris and Griffin will also be supplying their picks, but with no monetary incentive.
This week, the picking crew gets a return performance by everyone’s favorite bald roommate, Blake “I’m Daddy” Reback.
Two weeks ago was pretty much a dumpster fire for both Blake and I. Blake edged me 2–4 to 1–5. Not good no matter how you cut it. We both lost out on Clemson, who won by 7 and didn’t cover, Iowa State who lost by 7, and USC who pulled out a 2 score win (after almost blowing a huge lead) against Arizona. I correctly picked Michigan, who won by 23 (suck it Blake…I guess…even though Michigan won…picked it right and you didn’t…so yeah). Blake picked Oklahoma and Miami to win. With a busy week at work last week, we took a week off (also to let out egos recover), but now we’re back and ready to get embarrassed by 6 matchups of our choosing this week.
Michigan @ Wisconsin
Saturday, November 12, 12:00 PM EST
Line: Wisconsin (-7.5)
COB: Alex Hornibrook’s throwing motion makes me want to throw up. It makes me want to break my TV very time I see it. It makes me want to gouge my eyes out and squash them just so I don’t ever have to see his throwing motion again. I’m not saying I hope he breaks his arm and can never play football again, but maybe that wouldn’t be the worst thing of all time. He takes too long to throw, has an elongated, overly-pronounced robotic motion, misses open receivers, and throws a ton of picks (see: 2 horrible pick sixes against Iowa last week). Thankfully for Wisconsin, they have the 3rd best running back in college football in Jonathon Taylor. The kid is an absolute stud as a freshman, running for 1525 yards and 12 TDs so far this season. Remember what happened last time Michigan went up against one of the best running backs in college football? Yeah, that’s right, they got absolutely torched (161 total yards and 2 TDs for Saquon Barkley). Sure, part of that threat was created by the zone read with Trace McSorley and that won’t happen with Hornibrook and Wisconsin, but Wisconsin also isn’t going to win this game 42–13. Look For Wisconsin’s suffocating run D (FBS best 81.5 YPG) to erase Higdon, Evans, and Isaac, force Brandon Peters to beat them (read: he won’t do shit) while Jonathon Taylor leads the Badgers offense to an ugly, but double digit win at home to lock up a spot in the Big Ten championship game.
Blake: First off, I decided to not use any stats this week because I’m a strong independent woman who don’t need no man. Also because of science. And also because I’m a lazy POS who works from 6:30–6:30, sue me. Anyways, Michigan is coming in hot led by the leading Heisman candidate who is a Wolverine and plays offense and throws the ball on a consistent basis, Brandon Peters. I think Peters has played just about as well as could be expected. However, they are playing in Jump Around stadium led by Jonathan Taylor who is a certifiable beast. And although Hornibrook is the most overrated QB in the NCAA who will (mark my words) throw 2+ picks this game, I like Wisco to cover. Michigan’s wins this year have been against average to below average teams and we are pretty beat up at all positions. Oh well, the demolition we take the next two games will all be worth it in two years (2019 champs baby). And yes, picking against Michigan is a defense mechanism. Wisconsin 35–20
The Pick: Wisconsin (-7.5)
TCU @ Texas Tech
Saturday, November 18, 12:00 PM EST
Line: TCU (-7)
COB: Texas Tech’s only 2 wins in their last 7 games have come against teams with 2 combined wins this year. TCU’s only 2 losses were against Oklahoma and Iowa State. How exactly is the line for this one only 7 points? Sure, both team score 35–38 points per game and rack up between 430 and 480 points per game, but the Horned Frogs boast the 8th best scoring defense (16.3 PPG) compared to the Red RAider’s 105th ranked scoring defense (33.1 PPG). Digging deeper into that, the Red Raiders have the 113th ranked defense based on yardage (453 - 300 pass YPG (124th) and 153 rush YPG (55th)). Sure, the game is in Lubbock, and TCU didn’t look great against Oklahoma last week, but with the stark lack of defense out of the Red Raiders and the fact that they have yet to be beat anything resembling a decent team in the last 7 weeks leaves me with no confidence that they will be able to keep this game within 1 score. Frogs by 10+, and maybe this game won’t even push the over. Man, I can’t wait to see Blake get an Ohio State tattoo on his forehead…
Blake: I like the Horned Frogs, mostly because I can relate to that name. If you don’t get that joke, fuck you (I’m so lonely). Anyways, despite the score, I thought TCU actually played a tough game against the best offensive team in the country in Oklahoma, led by Baker “Pretty Boi $wag” Mayfield. Also I fucking hate born again religious doiners, like Dakota Allen, Texas Tech’s linebacker (shout out Last Chance U). And if you were wondering, yes, this is my BIG 12 OVER PICK OF DEATH. Cob gets to pick a punishment of his choosing if the over doesn’t hit (O/U 57) and gets to post it on the site. TCU 49–38
The Pick: TCU (-7)
Syracuse @ Louisville
Saturday, November 18, 3:30 PM EST
Line: Louisville (-13.5)
COB: Louisville has spent all year proving that, once again, they were overhyped solely based on Lamar Jackson’s talent. But, man, is Lamar Jackson legit. He’s thrown for 3000 yards and 21 TDs while also rushing for 1170 yards and 15 TDs. The man, though not in the same way he was last year, is a human highlight reel. Syracuse, much like Wake Forest, has played some teams very close (FSU, Miami, NC State, LSU) and even beat a marquee program (Clemson, albeit without Kelly Bryant for the most part), but just got into a shootout to Wake Forest where they allowed 64 points, 363 passing yards, and 371 rushing yards. They also haven’t won a game away from the Carrier Dome this year. Sounds like the calling card of a team running out of steam down the stretch. Working under the assumption the Syracuse will look more like they did against Wake than they did in prior weeks, Lamar Jackson should be able to continue to put up video game numbers this week. I’d expect something in the range of 250 passing yards, 2 TDs and 200 rushing yards 3 TDs. Though Lousiville’s defense is equally unimpressive, I don’t think the Eric Dungey-Steven Ishmael (one of the best WRs in the country — keep an eye on this guy) connection will be enough to keep this one within 2 scores.
The Pick: Louisville (-13.5)
Blake: This one really is a moral dilemma because I want Lamar Jackson to just absolutely go off and hurdle a standing grown man every week but I really just don’t think Louisville has got it this year. Also my man Frank (who works on the desk with me at my day job) is a ‘Cuse alumn (wuddup Frank. Also shoutout my college basketball idol Gerry McNamara). I honestly think ‘Cuse has played in some really tough games and just don’t have the pieces they need to finish down the stretch. While that may happen again, look for Cuse to keep it close all game long. Who know’s they may even fuck around and get a W but that’s not what these picks are for. They’ll cover: Louisville 24–14
The Pick: Syracuse (+13.5)
NC State @ Wake Forest
Saturday, November 18, 7:30 PM EST
Line: Wake Forest (-1.5)
COB: Wake Forest might be one of the most confusing teams in the ACC. They beat BC, then lose 3 in a row to FSU, Clemson, and GT, then beat Louisville, then play Notre Dame to a tough loss and beat Syracuse in a shootout. NC State is coming off of a close win over a much improved BC team after getting rocked against Notre Dame and playing Clemson to a 1 score game. The key for NC State was the return of Nyheim Hines, who left the Notre Dame game early and barely had an impact against Clemson as they eased him back into duty. Hines has to be licking his chops going into the Wake game considering the Demon Deacons are letting up over 200 rush yards per game. Look for the Wolfpack to pound the ball all day with Hines, Reggie Gallaspy, and Jaylen Samuel en route to a Ball Control style victory (see what I did there?), while letting Bradley Chubb pin his ears back and expand on his NC State sack record. Though the Demon Deacons have the potential to play with any team in the ACC, they’ve yet to prove that they can actually beat any of the contenders. This week will be no different.
Blake: This game doesn’t really float my rubber duckie so I’m not gonna write much about it. While NC State is a basketball school, I can’t name a single NBA player that went there recently and Woke Farest had Chris Paul. So by the transitive property, Woke Farest is more of a basketball school. Which means NC State will win and cover. Also, I like NC State’s defense and I don’t even know a single thing about Woke Farest (yes, I get that any week could be the week BCO doesn’t invite me back). NC State 21–17.
The Pick: NC State (+1.5)
UCLA @ USC
Saturday, November 18, 8:00 PM EST
Line: USC (-16.5)
COB: Over the last few weeks, USC has experience a little bit of a revival, beating Arizona State, Arizona, and Colorado by 31, 14 and 14 respectively. The key for USC over these last 3 games has been the turnover margin. Darnold has only turned the ball over 2 times in the last 3 games compared to the 6 turnovers that USC’s defense has forced. With that newfound efficiency, USC should have no problem taking care of UCLA’s 124th ranked defense. While UCLA appears to be stout against the pass (196.7 ypg), don’t get fooled. The reason that number is so low is because UCLA’s run defense couldn’t stop a crawling baby (FBS worst 302.3 ypg), so teams don’t need to throw on them. That’s huge for USC considering they love to set up the play action with Darnold by ramming the ball down opposing defenses throating with Ronald Jones (1224 yards, 14 TDs). Yes, this is a rivalry game, so there’s some additional pride here, but I just don’t think Josh Rosen (233 ypg, 4 TDs, 4 INTs over his last 4 games) will be able to save the Bruins from their sorry excuse for a defense. Consider this loss as the final nail in the coffin for Jim Mora Jr.
Blake: God I hate USC. You know it, I know it, fuck, even our roommate Cam knows it. Love the fight song though. And while I root for UCLA every single year in this game, they are bad. Sooooo so so so bad. And while Sam Darnold is King Shook, Josh Rosen is Captain Douche (and, yes if you were wondering, my claim to fame is that I hooked up once with his cousin once after a high school football game). This is going to be a murder. Idk why there is even a line, tbh. USC 1,000,000–0
The Pick: USC (-16.5)
Cal @ Stanford
Saturday, November 18, 8:00 PM EST
Line: Stanford (-16)
COB: Try to tell me Bryce Love isn’t the best pure running back in college football. I DARE YOU. The man is literally unstoppable when he’s on the field. Despite missing a game with an ankle injury and playing hurt for 2 more, Bryce Love still leads FBS with 1622 rush yards, is 3rd in the country in yards per attempt (9.0), and tied for 4th in rushing TDs (15). Team stack the box knowing he’s getting the ball and they still can’t stop him. Last week was the first game he played this season without 50+ yard TD, but he was still able to put up 166 yards and 3 TDs against a pretty stout (by Pac-12 standards) Washington defense. Yes, Cal has looked a lot better recently, but outside of an outlier 37–3 win versus Washington State, the Cal defense hasn’t been able to stop a bloody nose in the last few weeks. Look for Stanford to turn up the heat with Peter Kalambayi (9 sacks) and Dylan Jackson (7 sacks) and shut down Cal’s passing attack while Bryce Love puts up 200+ and 3 TDs en route to a convincing win at home to set up a tough game against Notre Dame to end the season.
The Pick: Stanford (-16)
Blake: This one is also tough, but I’m gonna pick against Cob just to pick against him and his stupid man crush, Bryce Love (ok, maybe I’m a little jealous. Also, have I mentioned lonely?). Cal does know how to keep it close against good competition and looked reaaaaaal noice against Wazzu. In the Battle of the Nerds, I still like Stanford to come out on top, but think Cal will give them a fight to the finish. Bryce Love scores 2 TD’s and Stanford wins 28–20.
The Pick: Cal (+16)
Like the picks? Hate the picks? Think Blake and I are idiots based on these picks? Give us a shout on Twitter. Well, just BCO, because Blake is one of “those guys” that Protects his tweets.
